Tropical Storm Tomas: October 31, Update A

Our Tomas was a cat 2 storm earlier today with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) but has dropped back down to a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 997mb. He is not very organized (a victim of wind shear) and doesn't have a lot of convection, so he definitely looks like a Tropical Storm to me. I can't see the center very clearly and will go with the NHC location at 14.2N, 66.5W (I'm not convinced this is the right center either though). Officially he is moving W at 15mph. Again, it is difficult for me to see this westward movement because he's a bit of a mess. He might be moving Northwestward.
 
I finally managed to look at the pressure fields, and this little monster looks like he's going to turn Northwest and north sooner than the current forecast track indicates. The latest forecast has already moved him from heading west towards the Yucatan, to heading north towards Hispaniola. There is also a chance that he will turn sooner, and could possibly clip Puerto Rico. We'll see how this progresses.  
 
To mark Halloween, I've attached a little photo of a pumpkin work of art that someone sent to me last year that makes me chuckle everytime I see it. It's so British (and that's the only clue you get to what it is...until tomorrow anyway).
 

Ciao for now,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Shary and Hurricane Tomas: October 30, Update A

Gosh! THANK YOU for the welcome back to this side of the pond! I wanted to let you know I've read all your notes and will try and answer as soon as I can. You guys are great. :-)
 
Tropical Storm Shary:
Officially, she briefly became a hurricane earlier today (either that or I was halucinating) but has now lost her tropical characteristics. I don't think she was actually a hurricane because she had already lost her tropical flavour, but the wind speed could have picked up as she merged with a front and as the intensity of these storms are based solely on wind speed they had her as a weak hurricane for a smidge (a very small unit of time ;-)). She's currently centered at 39.2N, 50.9W and is moving NE at 48mph - gee whiz but that's fast! At those speeds she is clearly already part of a frontal system. The NHC have issued their last advisory on this system. Central pressure was 991mb and winds were 70mph in their last advisory.
 
And some of our friends on Bermuda weren't on the island as she zoomed past. Nope. They were in a much better place. They were in a boat in the Atlantic. Can't beat that when a storm is going by. I got this from Steve B.:

"tell me about it. We're hove to at 29 12N 64 20W on the way back from Puerto Rica. Lovely way to spend a Friday night. Rock and rolling."
 
Hopefully 'the way back' doesn't involve a detour south into the Caribbean!  
 
This is my last entry on Shary.
 
Hurricane Tomas:
Not surprisingly, Tomas is now a hurricane - those areas of offset vorticity I mentioned yesterday came into alignment. His center is at 13.5N, 61.7W, and he is moving WNW at 9mph. He is a pretty strong cat 1 storm at the moment with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and I have no doubt he will intensify further because wind shear is not very strong and sea surface temperatures are a warm 29-30 deg C. Central pressure is currently 982mb. He has crossed into the Caribbean, but is still causing some havoc on the southern windward islands. He's beginning to look good with a nice eye trying to form. Vorticity is strong throughout the troposphere, and convection is really good. The islands will continue to experience strong thunderstorms for at least another day or two. I'll look at the track in more detail tomorrow - I crashed this machine trying to have a look at that stuff today.  

On a related but unrelated note ... one of my fabulous readers (and our Caribbean reporter) Tom is married to Sheri.  These two storms were for you guys (only literally though ;-)).
 
Until the morrow!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storms Shary and Tomas: October 29, Update A

I don't think Tropical Storms are supposed to form when I'm moving from one continent to another. I'm pretty sure that's not in the rule book. And TWO?? I only turned my attention away from the Atlantic for a couple of days. Dearie me.
 
Well, here I am in sunny St. Petersburg, Florida. I'm here, my cats are here, and I'm hoping my shipped cargo stuff will be here soon - silly people out there sending bombs and whatnots via plane cargo!! What a complete nuisance. If they devoted that energy and effort towards the good of all humankind just imagine how amazing things would be! I know, I know, it's an idealistic viewpoint. Sigh.
 
So moving onto nicer things...  we have two storms to chat about.
 
Tropical Storm Shary:
This is a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 65 mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 993mb. Her center is at 30.9N, 65.0W, about 95 miles south of Bermuda and she's moving NNE at brisk 13mph. She will pass just south and east of the island.  Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 85 miles from the center. She's mostly a wind event with very little convection, so it should be a breezy night out there. Water temperatures are cold (25 deg C). There is so little convection and she's kind of elongated, so I don't think she's really a fully formed Tropical Storm and looks like she's already extratropical (which is what she will be forecast to become tomorrow). It looks like she'll become part of a front soon.
 
Tropical Storm Tomas:
Tomas was just named (number 19!... one more and I'll have to start counting on other people's fingers and toes!), although he was looking like a Tropical Storm earlier today. He is officially a weak storm with winds of 40mph and central pressure of 998mb, but he looks stronger and better developed than that to me. Possibly as much as a strong Tropical Storm actually. There's a lot of convection and a fair bit of vorticity in the entire troposphere! The vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere is west of the vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere. Once those come into alignment he will be a good looking storm with a lovely structure and will intensify further. He's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph, and is currently officially located at 11.1N, 57.5W, just outside the Caribbean and heading towards the southern windward islands. It looks to me as though his center is a bit north of that, at 11.8N, 57.4W.
 
That's it for today. What a week! Phew. Time for a glass of wine. ;-)
More tomorrow (of course).
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Richard: October 26, Update A

Hullo out there!
 
After becoming a hurricane a couple of days ago, Richard made landfall in Belize as a cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 981mb. He's crossed the Yucatan and is now a Tropical Depression in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Current location is around 20.2N, 93W, and he's moving NW at 10mph. Winds are 30mph and central pressure is 1005mb. It looks like he'll fizzle out over the Gulf. Although there is still some decent lower level circulation, there is very little convection.
 
This is my last entry on this system.
 
This is also my last entry from the UK for this hurricane season! I've had a fabulous 14 months here during which time I walked over 200 miles, drove over 22,000 miles, flew over 32,000 miles, took over 3200 photos and had lots of adventures. Tomorrow I fly across the pond, so the next time I write will be from Florida. Time for a new adventure, but first... a cup of tea! (of course) ;-)
 
Tally ho and toodle pip,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 24, Update A

Not surprisingly Richard has intensified to a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph (range: 39-73mph). He always looked stronger to me than the official numbers suggested. At this point, I think he might even be a cat 1. He's just north of the Honduras border at 16.5N, 85.5W and is heading WNW at 10mph towards Belize. Central pressure is 995mb. The warm waters are pretty deep in that part of the Caribbean, with 26.5 deg C waters in the upper 100-125m (surface temperatures are 29-30 deg C) and wind shear is weak. Both will allow him to intensify a bit more. However he is interacting with Honduras which may help to keep him from growing much beyond a cat 1. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and there is a signal in the upper levels as well - another sign (to me) that he is already a hurricane. Convection is also pretty good, with thunderstorms and oodles of rain (a technically precise amount of rainfall ;-)).  He is forecast to make landfall overnight tonight.
 
I'll try and pop in later when they upgrade him to a hurricane (I'm assuming they will!).
Until then,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 22, Update A

A short entry due to lack of time - just a place holder really, for the records. 
 
TS Richard has a lot of convection, especially for something that's only a weak TS with winds of 45mph (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is still officially quite high at 1007mb and he's also pretty disorganized so I still can't quite see a good center of circulation. Vorticity is good in the lowest half of the troposphere. I still think he's stronger than a weak TS, but not as strong as a hurricane. The official location is 15.8N, 82.3W and he's moving W at a slow 5mph. Hmm.. I think this location indicates a more WSW movement, but generally he's heading towards that central America region of Honduras & the Yucatan.
 
That's all for today. I won't have much computer time over the next few days but I might be able to throw some random words together. Shakespeare did and look where it got him. ;-)
 
Ciao!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Richard: October 21, Update A

And we're not done yet! Anyone who bet that Paula was going to be the last named storm can just put that money in my "Tropical Storm Holiday Fund"... er... I mean my "Tropical Storm Fund" (huh... I don't know how the word 'holiday' crept in there).  
 
A Tropical Depression that's been loitering (with intent! ;-)) in the Caribbean for a number of days has been officially upgraded to the next (17th) named storm of the season - TS Richard. For those who know their alphabet, can count, or have been paying attention... there was no Q named storm. I'm sure there must be a plethora of cool Q-beginning names from around the Caribbean and even some Native American names. Maybe it's time to walk on the wild side and include some of those, hmm? :-)
 
He's officially barely a TS with winds of only 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He is also very disorganized so it is difficult to see a center of circulation. I'll go with the official one for now at 16.2N, 80.4W. Central pressure is 1006mb and he's moving SE at 6mph. To me he looks a bit stronger than the official numbers indicate, but I'm sure they will upgrade him to something like 60mph winds later.
 
This system was essentially stationary for a while yesterday (crawling around at 2mph) over that delicious warm Caribbean water, which has allowed him to grow a bit. Convection is pretty good but there is a lot of wind shear so the convection is mostly to the east of the official center. Jamaica has been getting more than a few raindrops over the past few days. The vorticity (circulation) is also good in the lowest half of the troposphere (scientific term for lowest level of our atmosphere which extends up to about 8-16km depending on where on the planet we are looking, in case you started reading this mid-way through the season). If it wasn't for the wind shear, he would definitely be a stronger TS. He's right on the edge of an area of weaker wind shear so, depending on the path he takes, he may intensify quite a bit within the next 24 hours.
 
Hmm... although the forecast track takes him westward over the next day, I'm not so sure. Looking at the large-scale pressure fields, it looks like there's a good chance he'll move eastward/northeastward. But I don't have a lot of information on these fields, so there may be something small that I can't see. Maybe my glasses will be cleaner tomorrow! ;-) The longer term forecast track takes him west and then curving northwest to make landfall as a hurricane on the Yucatan Peninsula early Monday morning. We'll see how this track pans out. If it's the correct track, I can see him becoming a hurricane because, as we've seen before during this season, that part of the Caribbean has the deepest warmest water.
 
Dear Mother Nature, thanks for your timing. I've been rather busy these past few days so it's been really helpful to only have to pop in and see what the blob was doing and then get back to other things. :-)
 
Until tomorrow (unless I get tired of doing moving-related things later and he's done something interesting :-)),
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Paula: October 15, Update A

A really short entry today. Yay! She's been downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and the NHC stopped advisories on her this morning. There's barely any convection, and the vorticity is only in the lowest level. She continued to track east and is over water, just north of Cuba now. The Bahamas are getting a shower or two. She's too disorganized for me to identify a center. The last known was around 22.8N, 79.5W, and she was heading E at 9mph. Winds were 25 mph, central pressure was 1009mb.
 
This is my last entry on this storm.
 
There are murmurs of something potentially develping in the southern Caribbean in a few days. There's certainly a lot of convection down there, but no vorticity to speak of. We'll see what happens.
 
Have a great weekend!
Signing off until the next one (to do packing and moving sorts of things).
 
Toodle pip!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Paula: October 14, Update A

A short update as it's late... after skirting the northern Cuban coast for most of the day, Paula is over land now, at 22.8N, 82.8W, and is moving east at 9mph. She's a little thing and a bit messy so I can't quite determine the center and will go with the official lat/long. The forecast track has shifted and continues to take her in an ENE/E direction for a greater distance than it did yesterday. I agree with this more than I did with the southward turn over Cuba track that was depicted yesterday. It looks like she will re-emerge over water as a Tropical Depression and eventually dissipate. The downgrading to a Tropical Depression seems reasonable because she is over land and wind shear continues to increase, although she does have a lot of convection for something that is under those conditions. It's because she is interacting with the warm waters of the Straits of Florida - part of me is wondering if the center is still over water (barely), but I'll still go with the NHC location because I can't see the center and they have been sending planes into the system. The wind shear is responsible for almost all the convection being to her northeast, over southern Florida and the Bahamas.
 
Winds are 60mph and central pressure is 1002mb, so she's still a mid-sized TS (range:39-73mph). Vorticity is still good in the lowest half of the troposphere, and the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those from a couple of updates ago?) is strong for such a little thing. We'll see how much this changes as she crosses Cuba.
 
That's all for today... time for a nap. :-)
Ciao (again ;-) ),
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Paula: October 13, Update A

I know I shouldn't say this, but I'm going to anyway. Paula has been a very well behaved so far. I think the last time I said that about a storm, it went and did some naughty things. But I have high expectations that Paula will be good. :-)
 
She's currently centered about 21.9N, 85.7W and is heading NNE at 5mph. Winds are 85mph, central pressure is 992mb. This makes her a mid-sized cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). I agree with this. Her track is a little north of the forecast one we saw yesterday, and she passed through the Yucatan Channel with ease. She's heading towards the northern coast of Cuba now. The wind shear I mentioned yesterday has really kicked in and on satellite images the convection is mostly northeast of the center of circulation (in the direction of southern Florida), which is a good indication of wind shear. The track looks like it recurves from NNE to NE to ENE and then E and SE into Cuba, where the storm dissipates. There's a good chance she will stay on a more ENE/eastward track for longer than expected, skirting the northern coast of Cuba.  
 
In the face of such strong wind shear (it is ~25-35 mph) she will continue to decrease in intensity, so I don't expect her to be a hurricane for too much longer. This is in agreement with the NHC as well.
 
She is still a dainty little thing with hurricane force winds extending only 10 miles from the center. I've walked more than that in a day! (although not under those weather conditions). There's an interesting statement on the NHC website: A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS THERE. Almost true ... I suspect that in this particular location, ships might have had a bit of a clue. But it does raise the point that the increase in hurricanes in recent years has been, in part, because of improvements in modern technology. Those that form away from shipping lanes, such as in the eastern Atlantic, would have gone undetected in the past.  
 
Anyone taking bets on if this is the last named storm of the season? ;-)
More tomorrow!
Ciao (... I still always think of Eddie Izzard on a scooter when I write that),
J.
 
p.s. my twinterview went well I think (I hope!). I forgot to write 'Hi!' and little things like that, but it was fun. :-)
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Paula: October 12, Update A

As expected, Paula ramped right up in intensity over those lovely warm Caribbean waters, although she remained a dainty little thing (in size).  Sea surface temperatures are over 29 deg C, with waters warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 100-150m. All that lovely energy... yummy! ;-) It looks like an eye formed earlier today, but it's clouded over again. She's at about 19.2N, 86W, and heading NNW at 9mph. Her central pressure is now around 981mb, and winds are 100mph, making her a mid-sized cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph). From the amount of convection in this system, she doesn't look as strong as most cat 2s - maybe a strong cat 1 actually - but I'll go with the official verdict.
 
The track has been adjusted to something that looks far more reasonable to me. Instead of doing loop-de-loops over the northwestern Caribbean, she's now going to make a northeastward turn that will take her towards Cuba. At the moment I think there's a pretty good chance she might move north of this, in which case southern (and southwestern) Florida will get a spot of windy and wet weather (anyone in the Keys on their honeymoon by any chance? Not that you'd be reading this. Oh well. Still, it'll be one of those 'holiday' adventures to talk about, won't it? It's been lovely and sunny and warm in the UK these past few days...). Looking at the satellite images, I see that southern Florida is already getting a spot of wet and thundery weather, which is connected to this Hurricane.
 
Her track will really determine the intensity. So far it's been fairly predictable because of the water temperatures and lack of wind shear. But depending on where she curves (which depends on the pressure fields), if she stays over water - through the Yucatan Strait and then the Straits of Florida - she might intensify further, in which case southern Florida and the Bahamas need to be ready with their rain coats. The one thing that will stop her from growing too much if she gets that far north will be wind shear, which gets stronger if she gets closer to southern Florida. If she curves over Cuba as the current center of cone track shows, I expect she'll decrease fairly rapidly because of the mountainous areas she's crossing.  
 
More on Paula tomorrow. All else is quiet. Dan P. reminded me that I forgot to post a twitter interview time for tomorrow - I think it will be 4pm my time, so 11am US East Coast time. Hmm... I suppose I ought to confirm that before tomorrow afternoon! ;-)
 
More tomorrow on the lovely Paula.
 
Toodle pip!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Paula: October 11, Update A

I was waiting for the Caribbean Blobette to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Paula ... and here she is. Yay! 16th named storm of the season.
 
I think this has been a Tropical Depression for a day or two, so going to a named Tropical Storm is not a big surprise because she didn't stay over land. It looks like the center just clipped the Nicaragua/Honduras corner earlier today (convection decreased, as did vorticity) and is back over water with low wind shear, so the convection is improving again. The vorticity isn't very strong at the moment, mostly in the lowest part of the troposphere. It is not as elongated as it was yesterday and looks like a TS. As it gets just north of Honduras I expect convection to improve because it is over warm water (temps >29 deg C) and deep warm water (warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m).
 
The upper level divergence and lower level convergence have also improved. Oooh... what the heck is she talking about now, I hear you say. <(New) SCIENCE ALERT!!! (how thrilling!! :-) )> Here's a rare attempt in these updates at a simple explanation of convergence and divergence! A tropical storm has low pressure in the center, near the surface. That's why we all keep mentioning the central pressure - the lower it is, the stronger the winds (usually). A low pressure is an area that the air is 'pulled' towards. By extending that image to a circular storm, you can imagine the winds are pulled in from all around - i.e., they converge. So we have Low Level Convergence. Now the problem is that if you keep pulling winds in at the low levels, they have to go somewhere. It might come as a surprise to you, but they don't just gather around the center and have a game of poker. ;-) The ground is underneath, so the only way the air can go is up. And when the air reaches the top of the storm the only way the winds can flow is out and away from the center. So at the top we have Upper Level Divergence. The stronger the convergence/divergence of a storm, the better the formed it is. Ta-da. <End of (new) SCIENCE ALERT> Phew. Time for some wine-convergence now I think.
 
A plane was sent into the system earlier today and found evidence that this was close to being a Tropical Storm. And there were other data and stuff (obvious technical jargon) that showed this too. She's heading towards the Belize/Yucatan area... moving NW at 10mph. Current center I'm estimating is around 16N, 84W, so she's *just* north of Honduras. Convection is strong near the center and Honduras (and bits of Nicaragua) are getting a few bucket-fulls of rain and some thundery weather. Oh, NHC just posted the official info. They agree with my center (good good). Winds are 60mph, making her a mid-size TS (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1000mb. Track looks a little interesting... it doesn't quite make it to the Yucatan coast, but hangs out in the Caribbean as a hurricane. Oh dear. If that really is the track then we might have a big hurricane in a few days... that's the warmest (deepest warm) part of the waters out there. We'll see. I'll have a look tomorrow. For now...
 
...I got things to do. Wine to drink. Forms to fill in. Oh... and don't forget, I am giving a live twitter interview on Weds. afternoon! My first ever. For my fellow Twits (hahaha... I'll always get a chuckle out of that one), details have been posted on the internet: "To see the full interview you will need to follow www.twitter.com/metoffice (@metoffice) and www.twitter.com/metofficestorms (@metofficestorms)". Or use the hashtag #metqt. I'll also tweet the hashtag etc info @JyovianStorm. It's a Brave New World!!
 
More tomorrow!
J.
 
p.s.... in case you didn't know... I work at the MetOffice over here. But this blog are my own views entirely, as I started this little hobby before joining them. And also, in case you didn't know... I'm moving back to the US. In just about 2 weeks - in time for Halloween... how scary for you! ;-)   
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Otto and the Caribbean Blobette: October 10, Update A

Hee hee... it's 10/10/10 today. Finally, a date for which I don't need to pause and think which country I'm writing in (US: month/day, UK: day/month). Of course it would be on a Sunday so I don't have to write the date anywhere official anyway. Typical. ;-)
 
Tropical Storm Otto:
He's now officially extratropical (or post-tropical - yuk, I really don't like this new-fangled terminology. Did I mention that this season already? ;-)). He's moving NE at 43mph! with winds of 65mph and a central pressure of 987mb. His current location is around 39N, 36W. There's a lot of vorticity, but no convection to speak of. It's a blustery day in the Atlantic! He'll pass north of the Azores soon and then turn right and head southeastward. The NHC issued their last advisory on this earlier today, and this will be my last update on this system.
 
Caribbean Blobette:
This blobette still has pretty good vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere, but it's still a bit too elongated to really make her a Tropical Storm. I'd still consider her a Tropical Depression though. The center looks like it is around 14.1N, 82.1W, really close to Nicaragua now. There's some convection, but nothing like we've seen in Tropical Storms this year. It's unlikely to become a Tropical Storm unless the center misses land and carries on towards the Yucatan. If it develops, I'll send another update.
 
Signing off at 10:10pm my time! (ok that wasn't a lucky coincidence... I waited 2 minutes before hitting 'send' just so I could write that:-))
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Otto and the Caribbean Blobette: October 9, Update A

I'm back after a day away. I'm sure no-one noticed, and Otto looked like he was on track to nowhere-in-particular (there's a road that goes there and a bridge...) so I figured I'd skive off and do other things. It's the weekend after all and it was actually sunny and warm in October in Manchester (UK)! (if you've been to Manchester, you'd know what a novelty that is). ;-)  
 
Hurricane Otto:
It was no surprise to see Otto become a hurricane yesterday. As I said, the vorticity was strong enough, it just needed a bit of help from other environmental conditions (e.g. decrease in wind shear). It looked like he stayed a cat 1 (range:74-95mph), reaching maximum wind speeds of about 85mph overnight. Officially he is now barely a cat 1 with wind speeds of 75mph and a central pressure of 984mb. I would have brought him back down to a Subtropical Storm (or even extratropical), but I'm sure they will do that in the next advisory. He doesn't have an eye and it looks like he's in the process of morphing into 'something not tropical' (clearly a highly technical explanation for what's going on ;-)). He's zipping along at 32mph and convection has really died down, both indicators that he's not really a tropical system. The current center is at 32.4N, 52.6W. After moving ENE for a while yesterday, he is back on a more north-eastward track and looks like he might go north of the Azores, and then turn right and head south towards the Canaries. They will experience some windy weather, but it shouldn't be too bad.  
 
Oh, apparently I do know at least one person (KF) who has been to the Azores! It was on his first oceanographic research cruise. How cool! From KF: [they sailed] "from Narragansett Bay to Punta Delgada aboard the RV Trident of URI, a verrrry long time ago. Getting there was rough, but the Azorean island we were on, Sao Miguel, was marvelous -- sunny, grand volcanic vistas, with at least one black sand beach, roads lined with flowers, sort of sleepy, a real getaway."  It sounds lovely. Although, he thinks it might be a tad bit different now because that was <ahem> years ago. ;-) 
 
Caribbean Blobette:
This little beauty has been struggling to develop into something for a few days now, but the vorticity and convection just couldn't reach agreement on where to meet until today. Although the NHC have this at 30% chance of developing into a tropical system, I think it's already a Tropical Depression because there is a clear, albeit slightly elongated, closed circulation at around 13N, 80.5W, just a bit east off the Nicaraguan coast. Because of wind shear the convection is to the west of the center, so I don't know if it will be able to develop into a Tropical Storm before it interacts with land. It is moving WNW.  

In sort of other news... I'll be doing a Twitter Interview on tropical storms next wednesday! It's the first time I've done a twitter interview. I'm supposed to write answers in about 120 characters (including spaces)! 120 characters!! I can't even tell you *about* the interview in that space! Do you think this might be my biggest challenge yet? ;-) Stay tuned for details.
 
More tomorrow!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Otto: October 7, Update A

Alas, no time for dilly-dallying today!
 
Otto the October Storm officially went from a Subtropical Storm to a Tropical Storm as the convection near the center of circulation picked up earlier today. He is currently at 24.0N, 67.6W and although he was rather slow earlier today because of the high pressure surrounding him, he has since picked up speed (not the drug speed, but the velocity speed! ;-)) and is now moving in a NE direction at 6mph. Winds are still officially 60mph with a central pressure of 992mb, so no change from a mid-strength Tropical Storm (range; 39-73mph). Convection is quite a bit stronger near his center and if there wasn't a dash of wind shear and dry air surrounding him I think he would be a hurricane by now because the vorticity is good throughout the troposphere.
 
The track forecast hasn't changed much either at the moment and they still have him heading to the Azores.  Hmm... I've never been to the Azores and I can't think of anyone I know who has either. They are a pretty low-key and quiet bunch of islands, aren't they? Anyway, back to the track. It looks like he's heading more ENE at the moment, which will take him a little south of the current forecast track. Maybe he's going to the Canary Islands instead of the Azores. I know people who have been to the Canary Islands.
 
No more time. Must run. And sleep. Sleep running. Hmm. Maybe not. Although I know someone who went sleep cycling... they realised something was amiss when they woke up on the bike a few streets from home in their PJs.
 
Adieu,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Otto: October 6, Update A

Our blob was upgraded to Subtropical Depression early this morning and, as of the 5pm NHC advisory, it is now Subtropical Storm Otto. The wind shear I mentioned yesterday gradually subsided, which allowed the convection to finally wrap around the center.
 
His center is  just a bit north of Hispaniola and a smidge east of the Turks and Caicos, at 23.3N, 68.3W. The NHC have his maximum winds at 60mph (central pressure 990mb) making him a mid-sized Subtropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). He has good vorticity throughout the troposphere but he really isn't fully formed yet because there is still a dry area just southeast of the center and what passes for convection is looking a little ragged (one could say he was a bit under the weather... ;-)).
 
At the moment he's moving N at 5mph, which is rather slow for a storm. He's trying to get past an area of high pressure that's blocking him - it's like going uphill for him, and he's not in the best of shape anyway! The official forecast track has him heading generally northward until tomorrow afternoon and then he'll pick up the pace and head northeast as a hurricane (for a short while). He is heading towards some Atlantic islands. Not Bermuda though (that makes a nice change, hey?) but towards the Azores instead. Actually, it looks like he's already making that northeast turn but I don't have good enough data to be able to judge that with certainty, so tomorrow I will be looking out for more evidence of a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed.
 
The folks on the VIs (and probably PR and adjacent islands) have already got drenched by the convection from this blob. From Tom J. on St. Thomas early this morning:
 "...the rain has been deluging stt. we are all flash flooded here. have had NO POWER  for 5 hours and am on generator. NHC was at least right about the flash flooding warning. still deluging as I write this quick note. you'll get this as my pooped dingy is being circled by sharks. WOW WHAT A RAIN!!!"
They were without power for about 18 hours, but it's back now. You might as well just throw away the umbrellas at this point!  
 
That's all for today. More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: October 5, Update A

Woo-hoo... we got us another one! ;-)
 
This blob has been hanging out in the Caribbean/Western Atlantic region and over the Leeward Islands for a few days now. I think it is soused from one too many rum-based drinks (hmm...banana daiquiris ...yum!) because it is spinning around (isn't that what happens after one too many drinks? ;-)). Although the circulation still covers a broad area, the vorticity is pretty good in the lowest half of the troposphere. I would call this a Tropical Depression already actually, although the NHC currently have it at 80% chance of development into a Tropical Storm. It has been experiencing some wind shear so the convection is definitely to the east of the center, which I estimate to be around 21.5N, 65.5W. It is moving in a NW direction.
 
The VIs, PR, etc can expect rain, followed by rain, with a dash of rain on the side over the next few days. Tomorrow I'll have a look at where this blob is going. Could be heading anywhere really. Probably Bermuda. ;-)
 
Although wind shear still continues, there's a chance they will upgrade this to a named system soon. The next one is Otto.
 
Ciao for now!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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