Ex-Tropical Depression Rina and a new satellite: October 29, Update A

As I expected, Tropical Storm Rina fell apart yesterday (Friday) morning so she was downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and by yesterday evening the NHC had stopped issuing advisories on her. She was too weak after her interaction with land and the wind shear was too strong for her. This is also my last update on Rina.  Hurray! J I’ll keep an eye on that Atlantic blob, but will only write if it looks like it’s thinking about being more than a blob.

In response to the comment by the ‘Queen’ yesterday, Bryan from Florida said: “The Toronto Blue Jays and Montreal Expos are Major League Baseball teams outside of the US, and thus "World Series" is appropriate. ;)”  I agree, that should have said ‘North America’, not just ‘America’. I’ll have to have a word with her writers. ;-)

<Interesting science news alert> There was a piece of very cool news this week (other than the two historic changes to the constitution regarding the British throne succession, which is also quite groovy).  The next generation of climate/weather satellite was launched from California yesterday! It is called NPP and is a joint NASA/NOAA satellite (with some icing on the cake from the DoD). Here is the NPP mission badge:



You want to know why it’s called NPP? Here goes… it stands for NPOESS Preparatory Project. And what is NPOESS? That is the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System. So er, yeah, NPP for short works for me. Anyone want to try their hand at another acronym? (that’ll keep you busy for 2 minutes) ;-)

It is what is known as a polar-orbiting satellite because, as you can imagine, it orbits the earth in more of a north/south direction than an east/west direction and therefore flies close to the poles (not necessarily over them). I found this diagram on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) website which shows an example of how each orbit covers a different part of the earth:



The NPP has five fabulous instruments that will collect data on various things, such as the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere, the sea surface temperature, algal blooms in the ocean, the amount of sunlight being reflected by clouds, dust storms, changes in ice sheets and land cover. To find out more about these, check out NASA’s collection of posters…    http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/posters.html.

<end of interesting science news alert>

That’s it for now!

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Rina and the Atlantic Blob: October 27, Update A

Today marks the one year anniversary of my return to the U.S. A.! At the end of this entry I will share a few words from the Queen to mark this event. But first, we have a storm and blob to chat about.

Tropical Storm Rina
She has been weakening at a nice stately pace all day, and is now officially a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 996mb. Her center is officially at 20.5N, 87.2W, just a tad west of the Island of Cozumel and she is moving northward at 7mph.

I agree with the NHC, she is most definitely a Tropical Storm. There is now no vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere, just in the lower half of the troposphere. I think she’s weaker than the 60mph winds suggest, but not by much. She is almost over land and she is experiencing some strong wind shear, so she should continue to weaken. However parts of her are still over very warm water (28-29 deg C), including the Yucatan Strait, where the upper 100-125m are warmer than 26 deg C. This means she has the resources to have a lot of convection. You can see this in the IR satellite image:



There is quite a bit of the red/grey, so there is a lot of thundery weather over the northern Yucatan peninsula. I imagine they are getting a bit wet! Most of this convection is to the north/northeast of the center because of the wind shear. She is really more of a water event than a wind event. The observed winds in Cancun are from the east at 29mph – not even Tropical Storm wind speeds there.

Her forecast track is fascinating. J



It is not often that we see a storm take such a southward path, so I had to grab the image for posterity. She won’t really be a tropical storm for too much longer so that southward track is about as useful as an ice cold beer in a blizzard. I don’t think she will be a Tropical Storm in 24 hours because she will have been over land for a number of hours by then. The official NHC forecast is a little slower and has her weakening to a Depression on Saturday morning. As she is pushed to the south (by a low pressure front that is currently sweeping through the Texas/Louisiana region), she will blend in with a large area of convection that is covering the Caribbean, so that whole area will be on the cloudy/drizzly side of things. Umm… anyone going on a Caribbean cruise soon? Time to get your umbrellas out as you sip your umbrella drinks on the top deck!

Speaking of that large area of convection over the Caribbean – the NHC have marked this as an area they are watching with a very lowly 10% chance of developing. I’m not too bothered about this area… it has no vorticity (circulation) of its own to speak of.

Atlantic Blob:
But there is another area of convection marked on the NHC map as having a 10% chance of developing. This is out in the Atlantic, at around 20N, 40W (ish). This has some nice vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere. It might not develop because wind shear is a bit strong but I’ll just watch it now and again.

And now, some selected words from the Queen. These were sent to me by Tom in St. Thomas and Greg in Florida – two sources! They must be true. J

<Begin Message>

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your immediate failure to financially manage yourselves we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.) Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except Kansas , which she does not fancy). Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated sometime next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.'
------------------------
2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.’
-----------------
5. You will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
----------------------
6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
--------------------
10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialogue in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
---------------------
11. You will cease playing American football. There are only two kinds of proper football; one you call soccer, and rugby (dominated by the New Zealanders). Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
---------------------
12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America . Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the Australians (World dominators) first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
--------------------
15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

<End message>

You know she’s being generous allowing you to have vegetable peelers? In the UK we have to use lollipop sticks.
Tally ho and toodle pip until tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 26, Update A

With this post, some lucky person is going to be the 20,000th visitor to my blog website!! And that doesn’t include those of you who read this in your email. That is just simply mind-boggling and humbling to me! Thank you all. In honour (with a ‘u’ of course) of this, I shall be extra humble today.

Umm… umm… umm… ok, I give up. As Oscar Wilde said to the New York customs agent: “I have nothing to declare but my genius”. So, being the luminous and brilliant genius that I am, I shall continue with my normal babbling. ;-)

It turns out that Rina was weaker than her official intensity yesterday evening. After getting data from a hurricane hunter plane this morning, the NHC downgraded her at 11.45am (CDT) from a strong cat 2 with winds of 110mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a mid-level cat 1 with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95 mph). Currently she is officially still a mid-level cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure of 979mb. I would agree with this estimate. Although she needs a bit of make-up (she’s looking a bit ragged in the visible satellite image below), you can see that the convection is quite strong in the corresponding satellite IR image – lots of red and gray which indicates thunderstorms and stuff (technical term for ‘stuff’ ;-)).



Also, her vorticity (circulation) is good throughout the troposphere, which indicates that she is definitely a hurricane. She doesn’t really have an eye, so I would put her winds at below the ~90mph range. Yay! I agree with the NHC on the intensity… time to break open the champagne! ;-)

I don’t think she’ll get much stronger than she is at the moment. Wind shear is still low for most of the storm, but her northern edge is in an area of stronger shear which you can see in the visible satellite image as the clouds stream off to the northeast. Also, her western edge is interacting with the Yucatan peninsula now, which will help to keep her at a lower intensity. Working against this is the ocean… she is still over some very warm water – the surface temperatures are 28-29 deg C, and the upper 100-125m of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C! So there is plenty for her to munch on, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the wind shear and land impact. It looks like this will be a bigger rain event than a wind event (although it will be windy) for the Yucatan. They will probably get some flooding.

She is currently centered at around 18.5N, 86.5W and is officially moving NW at 6mph. I think she’s actually moving a little more WNW, but it’s difficult to see her center of circulation because she’s a bit messy. Now for her track… oh fratteratterpeggaloomer! (oooh… that’s the first time I’ve used that word. How exciting! ;-)). I don’t have good resolution pressure fields for that area today. What a pickle. Looking at other clues: her forward speed is still on the slow side, which indicates that she is still struggling against a bit of high pressure in front of her – to the north and northwest. The center of the cone track has her making landfall tomorrow afternoon, but she doesn’t look like she’s close enough to the Yucatan yet for that to happen. At the moment it still looks to me like she’ll interact with the Yucatan area more than the center of the cone track indicates, which will decrease her intensity even more and she may just end up fizzling out in that area. For her to follow that center of cone track, she needs to make a pretty sharp NNW turn any minute now – we should definitely see this by tomorrow morning. I know some models are showing tracks as far north as Tampa Bay… “Don’t Panic” (HHGTTG) – it’s far too soon for that! ;-)

If she does anything interesting I might send out another update later tonight, otherwise tomorrow amigos!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 25, Update A

Hurricane Rina is turning out to be a bit too awkward for a not-quite-end-of-the-season pip squeak little storm! She’s moving soo sloowlllyyy and while she dilly dallys in the Caribbean the pressure fields around her continue to change, which makes track forecasting a bit tricky.

Officially she is at 17.5N, 84.8W, moving W at 3mph. Winds are now 110mph, making her a very strong cat 2/almost cat 3 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Central pressure is 966mb.

Track: Her track was shifted a little to the right this morning, but is beginning to shift back to the left now. Although the forecast track (below) still has her curving to the northeast after the Yucatan, today I think it will continue to shift to the left and may actually be over the Yucatan more than expected.



The reason is because the high pressure that I mentioned yesterday (that is causing her to move slowly) has expanded and is now a high pressure ridge stretching from central Mexico, across the Gulf and southern Florida and into Cuba. This means that she can’t move northwards, so she’ll keep moving very slowly to the west until there is a break in this high pressure. The NHC forecast is for this high to move to the east, so she will continue more-or-less on their forecast track. They have been rather good at their tracks in the past few storms and I don’t have any reason to doubt this at the moment. The problem is what will happen once she reaches the Yucatan. Until that high pressure shifts and she starts to move at a respectable hurricane-pace, it’s a little difficult to predict the track.  So tomorrow we should watch her to see if she picks up forward speed because that would show that the high pressure is shifting to the east.

Intensity: Although she is officially a strong cat 2 storm, I think she might be a tad bit weaker at the moment. There is no eye, which I would expect with a storm that strong. Also, the convection is not as strong as it could be, and the upper level divergence (remember that?... if not, let me know and I’ll send out a reminder J) is fairly weak. The water is still warm, with the upper ~150m warmer than 26 deg C and there is also very little wind shear. I think she is not a cat 3 already because she is interacting with land (well, her outer bands are). I think I’d place her as a strong cat 1/weak cat 2 storm.

Hmm… I was expecting more clarity this evening (although after a glass or two of wine, what can you expect? ;-)). As I said yesterday, everyone should keep an eye on this one for now. I’ll be back tomorrow of course. We should know by then what she’s up to because the forecast has her speeding up and approaching the Yucatan tomorrow evening.

It be late here now. Night night and toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Rina: October 24, Update A

No, I have not fallen asleep on the job! I will do that in December (umm… shhh… don’t tell my boss that ;-)). I was traveling (again) and have just done the ‘sea to shining sea’ thing. Now I’m back in sunny Florida after a quick visit to sunny California. By the way, has anyone been to the Getty Center? iPhone photo: ‘Sun over the Getty’:



It’s fabulous. You’ll need about 12 hours to see everything, but it’s nice to have a bit of culture now and again isn’t it? ;-)

Apparently Mother Nature hasn’t quite fallen asleep on the job either. I did manage to get a glimpse of a computer yesterday, just before Rina was officially a Tropical Depression… she looked like she was already a Tropical Storm at that point with good circulation in the entire lower half of the troposphere and a fair bit of convection. I think she was a hurricane by this morning, although she wasn’t officially upgraded until this afternoon when a plane returned data to indicate this. So far, I think the NHC have underestimated her intensity and she has NOT rapidly intensified from a TS to a Hurricane in a handful of hours.

She’s been holding steady at around  75 mph since her (ahem) “rapid intensification” earlier, making her a weak cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). Central pressure is 989mb. She is currently located at 17.1N, 83.1W and is officially heading WNW at 3mph.   The official track forecast has her heading WNW, then NW towards the Yucatan peninsula, clipping the Cancun region as a cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph) before turning NE and back towards Cuba. The intensity forecast makes Rina a cat 3 storm on Weds, before she gets to the Yucatan.

Intensity: I agree that she’s a weak cat 1 at the moment… no eye is visible (yet). It is possible that she will get to a cat 3 because she is going to move over very warm water (29-31 deg C), with the upper 100-150m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C (lots and lots of yummy ‘food’ for her). This area has some of the deepest warm water in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region and we often see storms intensify if they pass overhead. There isn’t much wind shear at the moment and it doesn’t look like there will be too much as she moves over this part of the Caribbean, so I don’t see any real reason for her not to intensify. After the Yucatan her intensity will depend on how much she interacts with Cuba. Too soon to tell.

Track: There is a large range of possibilities with this storm. One of the problems is that she is bumping up against a high pressure to the northwest, which means she’s trying to move ‘uphill’… which is why she has slowed officially to a 3mph crawl at the moment (although I think she’s moving a little faster than that). It is a bit tricky for me to be able to assess her track today (as I only saw a glimpse of a computer yesterday), but I think she may head  a little more to the right of the center of cone. If that’s what happens, she might not clip the Yucatan peninsula at all before she curves to the NE. I hope to have a better idea tomorrow!

There is a chance that she’ll go anywhere from the southern half of Florida to Cuba, and then across to the Bahamas (I’m currently expecting her to pass well south of the Keys). Everyone in this area should watch her just in case, and I’m not traveling this week (well, not far anyway J), so I’ll be ‘here’… standing on the sea wall, blowing the storm away if I can. ;-)

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

Well things are looking groovy out there. The Atlantic blob from yesterday has vanished off the NHC map. The vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere has decreased, there is not much convection, and wind shear is strong. I’m not going to write about this one anymore unless it pops back up.

As for the Gulf of Mexico blobette, the Hurricane Hunter plane found no center of circulation so I didn’t have to get ‘quite cross’ at anyone. Good job people! The NHC have downgraded the chance for a tropical storm to 30%. Other than that, there isn’t much change from yesterday. The vorticity for this is still spread out over a large area. There is still some strong convection because it is still over very warm waters. The convection did start to decrease during the day today as the storm drifted across a patch of less warm (still 29-30 deg C though) water, but it has perked back up this evening because it is now over the leg of the Loop Current that flows out of the Gulf – between Cuba and the Florida Keys. I probably won’t say any more on this one either, unless it looks like it’s improving in any way. I expect raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens in the southern half of Florida.

Until the next time… or the end of the season (again).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

Here is the IR satellite image of the Atlantic Basin at the moment, so this is just a quick update on the two blobs that you can see out there at the moment. (Warning: I’ve not had my morning cup of tea yet, so don’t worry if words are a bit blurry).



Gulf of Mexico Blobette:
This one looks quite ferocious, doesn’t it? Well, its look is worse that its structure. There is some lower tropospheric vorticity (circulation), but it stretches from the Bahamas, southwest across southern Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico, and then down to the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is not very well developed at all and there is nothing much in the mid-to-upper troposphere. It does, however, have a lot of convection – lots of thundery weather in there. The reason why the convection is so strong is because of the ocean. It is over the Loop Current, which enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait and leaves the Gulf through the Straits of Florida. The surface waters of the Loop Current are very toasty – over 31 deg C! and water warmer than 26 deg C can be found in the upper 150m of the water column! So any storm, tropical or not, that passes over this area is bound to have a lot of convection.

They give this a 60% possibility of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours and are sending in a plane to investigate this afternoon. I shall be quite cross if it returns saying this is a tropical storm (unless it somehow pulls itself together by this afternoon, but it’s been spread out all over the map for days and looks quite set in its ways). Apart from the minimal vorticity (circulation), there is a lot of wind shear (ranging from 30-60 knots!). You can see this because the clouds are streaming off to the northeast. We’ve had some spectacular sunsets over Florida because of the water vapor in the skies above. Exhibit A: a photo of yesterday’s sunset, taken by moi. Although I’m a photographic genius with an iPhone, even 3 year old with a toy camera wouldn’t have been able to mess this up.



Regardless of the name, this does have some strong thundery weather in it so southern Florida might be getting a few sploshes of rain and stuff over the next few days. Don’t forget to take your umbrella with you. And a towel (that Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy knew what it was talking about!). ;-)

Atlantic Blob:
The other one I’ve been watching all weekend is the blob at around 10N, 40W. This one actually has more circulation in the lower half of the troposphere than the blobette, and it is confined to a relatively small area. However, as you can see, the convection doesn’t quite match and it is also in an area of some wind shear. At the moment it looks like wind shear will increase, so although I’ll watch this, I’m thinking that it won’t develop much.

More laterZ!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Ex-Florida Blobette: October 10, Update A

No crayon drawings in yellow, orange or red on the NHC Atlantic map! You know what this means? It means this entry will be hobbit-like… yes, short (with big hairy feet). ;-)

The Florida blobette fizzled out (still some circulation, but no real convection anymore). As expected, it brought rain and a bit-o-wind, and there was much rejoicing …

Lane from Florida said: “Thirsty central Florida got a wonderful wet kiss from cute Blobette. Our beloved green swamp is happier today.”

Clay from Georgia said: “This is wonderful news for south Georgia's peanut country, and the Okeefenokee Swamp, which has burned a lot the last two years because of the low water and errant lightning strikes."

Andrea from North Carolina (but currently in SC) said: “I just thought you'd like to know that the surf is up here in North Myrtle Beach, SC.”

Anyway, that’s it for this blobette. It would be symmetrically fitting if this was the last one of the season because the first blobette was also a Florida Blobette (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/06/june-2-update.html). We shall see.

I’ll be back when there’s another one or if something interesting crops up or, dare I say it, at the end of the season! Whatever shall I do with all this spare time? Umm… let me think, oh yes, I’m supposed to be helping out with this project: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/runicfilms/cowboy-creed-short-film. Enjoy! J (And please pass it along if you are entertained… the more the merrier. J).

Toodle pippy!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Florida Blobette: October 9, Update A

Not quite as windy as yesterday, but certainly wetter here today on the west-central coast of Florida. It rained almost non-stop and I thoroughly enjoyed it... it’s just like a fine Autumn day in the UK (minus the palm trees of course). J

Although the vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere is stronger today, it still remains spread out over a large area that stretches from the Bahamas north to central-Florida and then south again into the Gulf.  The NHC say the center of this broad area of low pressure is not well defined, but is about 50 miles SE of Cape Canaveral. I agree that there is a region that looks like a center of circulation just off the east coast of Florida, but it also looks like there’s a smaller (connected) area of circulation off southwest Florida as well… which is why I think this is (at the moment) a very disorganized big blobette. You can see these two areas in the IR image – they correspond to the convection in these two areas:



A chunk of this blobette is over the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) so it will produce a lot of rainfall because that ocean current is toasty warm (around 30 deg C) and water warmer than 26 deg is in the upper 100m. However I’m not sure if this will develop into anything much because wind shear is very strong (40-50 knots!) and this is so close to land. This blobette is moving northwestwardish at 10mph, so most of the northern half of Florida and areas to the north (GA, AL) and can expect some wellie-boots and brolly weather over the next couple of days.

I shall dedicate this ‘tropical’ weather to my family and friends over in the UK.

More tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Philippe and the Bahamian/Florida Blobette: October 8, Update A

I think Tropical Storm Philippe has been a simulacrum of his former self since yesterday. (Oooh… big word alert! :-)).

Officially Philippe is still a Tropical Storm, with estimated winds of 50mph and central pressure of 994mb. He is heading NE at 30mph, and is centered at around 35.3N, 46W. I think he is much weaker than that and has been since yesterday. Here is the latest Infra-red satellite image of him:

You can see that there is barely any convection left in this system, and the vorticity (circulation) is mostly connected to that front that I showed you a couple of days ago instead of being a stand-alone blob of vorticity, which is what we would expect to see in a tropical storm. Another indication that he’s no longer a tropical storm is that he is moving forward at 30mph. With very few exceptions, this fast forward speed indicates that other things are afoot (and aloft ;-)). This is my last entry on Philippe.

I’m sure most readers aren’t to bothered about Philippe now anyway… you all want to know what is developing in the Bahama/Florida region, don’t you? It’s been a magnificently breezy and cool day here in St. Petersburg (Florida), I must say. It reminds me of a lovely blustery day in the UK. :-)

I’ve been watching this blobette all day. This morning it did not have any vorticity (circulation) to speak of, however that is slowly slowly changing and it now has an itsy-bitsy teeny-weeny amount in the lowest level of the troposphere. This is not enough to make this into anything at the moment, but the trend is in the right direction and I’ll be watching this one (you might get more than one update from me tomorrow!). The center of this vorticity (circulation) is currently split into two connected areas – one is over the Bahamas, just north of Cuba, and the other is in the Gulf near southwest Florida/the Keys. It really is very much a blobette at the moment. The convection is also not very strong, and is also spread out over a large area, as you can see in this IR satellite image:

If the circulation continues to improve and it can pull itself together, we might have a little system off the east coast of Florida, which might head north towards Georgia (too soon to say because it’s not really developed). However, I agree with the NHC, it will be making things a bit windy and slightly wet even if it doesn’t develop into anything formal. The next name is Rina! Rina, really? >From that font of all knowledge, Google, Rina is a girl’s name variant of a bunch of other names and is not a name in and of itself. Anyone know a non-variant Rina? Have they used all the she-‘R’ names up already? Still, it’s easy to say and spell. :-)

Enjoy your Saturday! It’s wine-o-clock time where I am. :-) More tomorrow … assuming I haven’t got blown away! ;-)
Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Philippe: October 6, Update A

I go away for a couple of days and oh how the world changes! Speaking of world changing…

Steve Jobs died yesterday, but he certainly made the most of his life and what a truly amazing legacy he left! Thank you for my iPhone, Marvin. (You ask, why Marvin? Heehee… brain the size of a planet, and I mostly use it as a simple communication device. ;-) Of course, after Marvin the depressed robot from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy – another work of genius. One day I’ll figure out how to get apps….)

Now, Hurricane(!) Philippe. Just after my last entry, as expected, his center was officially ‘re-located’ to the south (probably because it didn’t like the neighbours). Rewinding a couple of days, he carried on westwardish for a while, and then did, indeed, make a nice sharpish turn to the NW, then North and is now heading NE at 13mph. The reason he took this track is because of the front that brought that wonderful, delightful, perfect cooler weather to much of the eastern US last weekend. It carried on moving east, across the Atlantic. I grabbed a water vapor satellite image a couple of days ago to show you:



The front is that line of clouds that extends from northeast to southwest in the Atlantic, and Philippe is at around 23-25N, 60W. He was being guided by that line of clouds. And here is a Water Vapor image from today.



You can see that he has sort of started to merge with that cold front.

His center is at around 29N, 58.4W, with winds of 85mph and a central pressure of 980mb. This means he is a mid-size cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). He was officially upgraded to a weak cat 1 hurricane this morning. I don’t think he will remain a hurricane for too long because the wind shear is getting stronger.

And finally for today… Here’s to the Crazy Ones (narrated by Steve Jobs): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwsuXHA7RA&feature=player_embedded#t=4s

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Ex-Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 3, Update A

Hurray, another one down! Yes, Ophelia is no more. She took so long that I’ve forgotten the great final Shakespeare quote I had lined up for her. One woe doth tread upon another’s heel. Bother. ;-)

She went over the tip of Newfoundland earlier today. She looked like she was mostly cloudy at that point, maybe a splash of rain… so I’m not sure the Newfoundlanders would have noticed anything unusual. ;-) The NHC’s last entry on Ophelia at 11am AST had her  at 48.1N, 52W moving ENE at 37mph. Winds were 60mph and her central pressure was estimated to be 996mb, so she was still at Tropical Storm level, but she wasn’t a Tropical Storm anymore so I agree with their decision to call her ‘post-tropical’. This is my last entry on Ophelia as well.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still clinging on. Officially he is at around 24.6N, 56.6W, heading WSW at 12mph. Winds are apparently 65mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. Hmm. Well, as with many other storms, I agree with the NHC on his name at least. ;-) He’s a bit of a messy system, so it’s not easy to figure out where the center is. It kinda looks like it is around 24N, 57W to me, which is a bit south of his current center and also south of the center of cone track. That pesky niggling voice in my head is telling me that if the center is not where they think it should be, that track might not be quite right. SO… by this time tomorrow I expect him to be somewhere closer to 25N, 61W heading WNW if he is on the forecast track.

He is pretty weak though. I don’t think his winds are 65mph. Here is the IR satellite image:



Not much convection really. I expect they will reduce his wind speed soon. Although his circulation is good, he is still in a region of decent wind shear at the moment. However, it does look like that might weaken for a short time, in which case he’ll be looking a bit better by tomorrow.

That’s all I got for today. I’m traveling tomorrow (surprise!) to the lovely Keys, but will try and check in later in the day. Speaking of traveling, watch this super cool video (thanks to Sharon in Florida for sharing this): http://vimeo.com/27246366.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 2, Update A

I had a very nice weekend, and I understand that it was a breeze on Bermuda too (puns always intended ;-)). Steve on Bermuda says they didn’t get much of anything (“rain and a squall, but nothing of note”) as Ophelia, then officially a strong cat 3/cat 4 storm (!!), went by. I am not 100% convinced that she went up to a cat 4. But I am glad dinky little Bermuda was not too dashelled!

Hurricane Ophelia
At the moment she is officially a cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), with winds of 90mph. This might be a slight overestimate, because she doesn’t have an eye and has fairly weak convection, but I’d agree with a cat 1 status.



As you can see, the IR satellite image shows weak convection and the lack of an eye. She is currently at 42.4N, 59.8W, heading NNE at a rapid 33mph. Central pressure is 967mb. I agree with the forecast track which will take her to Newfoundland tonight/early tomorrow.

<science alert> In this case, I would say that although she is moving forward at a rapid pace, she is still a tropical storm. I have not always agreed with the assessment of a fast moving storm being tropical. The reason she is moving forward at such a rapid rate is because there is a region of high atmospheric pressure to her right and a region of low atmospheric pressure to her left, and she is caught between the two. Normally, storms only have the high atmospheric pressure (the Bermuda/Azores High) to move around, which is why they move at a nice stately pace in a clockwise manner around the Atlantic (my earlier blurb on the Bermuda/Azores High and its effects on storm track: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/08/tropical-storm-emily-august-3-update.html). However, at the moment Ophelia has a region of low atmosphere pressure to her left. In the northern hemisphere, things move anti-clockwise around low pressure systems. So essentially, she is being pushed by both the high and the low – it’s a double effect, which means she’s zooming along there. <end of science alert>

Tropical Storm Philippe
The force is strong with this one, but so too is the wind shear! He has circulation throughout the troposphere, and it is as strong as Ophelia’s in the lower levels. But he is under some considerable wind shear, so although he is trying and trying, he hasn’t yet managed to get to hurricane strength. He was close yesterday, when they increased his winds to 70mph, but the winds are back down to 50mph now. He is currently at 26.2N, 53.1W, officially moving WNW at 12mph (it looks like he’s actually moving W or WSW). Central pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. The convection is all on the south/southeast side of the center. It looks like wind shear will remain pretty decent, so it seems unlikely he’ll be a hurricane any time soon. The forecast track still has him making a sharpish right turn on Tuesday/Weds:



This is a likely scenario, but the data I have is not good enough for me to be able to determine that for myself. The reason this is likely is because that low pressure that is to the left of Ophelia is moving eastwards and so the ‘plan’ is that it should make room for Philippe to turn to the NE quite quickly once it gets into the Atlantic.

That’s it for now. Time to get ready for a fun-filled work week ahead! Woo-hoo.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 1, Update A

Welcome to October… only another TWO months of the hurricane season left to go! Ha.

Hurricane Ophelia
Officially she is at 29.5N, 62.9W, heading N at 21mph. Winds are still 120mph, so she’s a mid-level cat 3 storm (range: 111-130mph) and the central pressure is 952mb. It looks like she’s far enough to the east of Bermuda that they won’t get any hurricane level winds (74 mph or higher), but they will get tropical storm conditions. It looks like they have already had some rain from a rain band (according to satellite images). Hurricane force winds extend out to about 40 miles from the center.

I agree with the NHC on her forecast track:



Although she has a lovely eye (satellite images below) and excellent circulation, the convection is pretty low for a cat 3 as you can see in the IR satellite image (there is none of that really strong red or grey colouring that indicate really tall thunder clouds/deep convection), so it is possible she might actually be strong cat 2.



Last night the most important thing on Steve’s mind was: “ the Australian Rules Football grand final. Starts in about 3/4 hour. Collingwood play Geelong.” Sounds er… fascinating. ;-)

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is at 24.8N, 48W, moving WNW at 9mph. Winds are still estimated to be 50mph, with an estimated central pressure of 1004mb. You’ll be pleased to know his official location today passes my quality controls, so I agree with the NHC on that. J I think he might be a tad weaker than 50mph, but it still means he is a weak Tropical Storm, so that’s all groovy.

His forecast track looks very silly at the moment, with an acute right turn in his track on Tuesday:



As I said yesterday, this is because the models are essentially basing this on him heading towards the largest low out there… Ophelia. There is a physical reason to do this and it’s not just a whimsical quirk of the models; It is because she will erode the high pressure he is stuck in. I don’t have the ability at the moment to say how much and how effective that will be by Tuesday, so for now, we’ll just keep watching him struggle to keep going. Although water temperatures are a lovely 29 deg C, and Philippe has more warm water under the ocean he is hanging out over than Ophelia does, he is facing considerable more wind shear in the atmosphere than she is, which is why he is struggling.

That’s it for now. More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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