Monday, June 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Debby: June 25, Update A

As a classic bear once sang…

“Oh the wind is lashing lustily
And the trees are thrashing thrustily
And the leaves are rustling gustily
So it's rather safe to say
That it seems that it may turn out to be
It feels that it will undoubtedly
It looks like a rather blustery day, today
It sounds that it may turn out to be
Feels that it will undoubtedly
Looks like a rather blustery day today”

That pretty much sums up things in my neck of the 100 Acre woods.

TS Debby is still out there, but as expected today she’s more wind than rain (compared to yesterday).  There will still be thundery/showery weather over parts of Florida, but at least it’s not completely covered. There are also clouds over Georgia, the Carolinas, the Bahamas, Cuba and the Yucatan associated with Debby as you can see in this IR satellite image:

If the environmental conditions had been conducive, she could have been much worse!

The latest advisory (about 2 hours ago) had her at 28.6N, 85.2W, moving NE at 3mph. Her central pressure was 995mb, with winds of 45mph making her a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

Track: They have shifted the ‘cone’ (circle) to the east, so it now extends just south of Tampa Bay. I agree with this. The central line has landfall as a Tropical Storm near Cedar Key on Thursday morning. I would accept this as part of the ‘cone’ I had in my head which focused on the “Big Bend area or possibly even farther south” (nothing personal Big Bend people!) – the northern end of my cone would include the Apalachicola region (nothing personal Apalachicola people!). I am thinking that landfall may be on Wednesday, not Thursday. The sooner the better really because she’ll just keep on blowing and picking up moisture and dumping it on everyone until she gets to land. It will make for many bad hair days. In fact, I’d suggest that you shouldn’t even bother with a hair-drier and ‘product’… just go for the windswept bedraggled look and say it’s ‘in’ these days.

Intensity: At this stage it seems unlikely that she will strengthen too much. She may a little, but there is still a lot of dry air to the west, she is still interacting with land, and she continues to swirl away from the Loop Current. Wind shear has died down, but I think it won’t do much other than allow her structure/circulation to improve (so she’ll remain windy). If she’s moved enough by tomorrow, I’ll start looking at what will happen to her beyond Florida.

So… I’m having computer problems and need to sign off now so it can be diagnosed by the computer doctor. J (Obviously I work too hard! ;-)). However, remember you can always check out the blog website for updates because I can post to that from anywhere. Must run. Hope to be back later!


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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