November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! … Or is it? <dun-dun-dun>(dramatic music!)(dramatic pause!)

Can you believe it? There’s a blobette on the NHC website!

Either someone didn’t clean their screen or we lost the end-of-the-season memo to Mother Nature. Again. Time to have a glass of wine and some wenslydale cheese. Again. (any excuse! ;-))

About this Atlantic Blobette: She is currently at around 25N, 42W. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and a low pressure front/trough in the upper levels of the troposphere which means this one could have a chance of getting stronger. However, the wind shear is strong and the water temperatures here are around 23-24 deg C, which are rather on the cool side for a proper, grown-up storm. But she is trying. The convection has improved during the day today. If she develops it is purely because of the upper atmosphere, which means she would not be a tropical storm but a sub-tropical storm. The next name is Valerie.  

You may be thinking that it’s a little bit odd to be wearing cute winter boots, a wooly hat, and gloves and *still* reading about the Atlantic hurricane season. It is a tad unusual to have a December Atlantic storm, but remember the reason we say the hurricane season is between June 1 and November 30 is because 97% of all storms develop during that time. If Valerie develops, she’s one of the 3% (see http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/06/june-1-start-of-2012-atlantic-hurricane.html for my plot of how storms are distributed throughout the year).

But if you think this is odd, things are even odder in the western Pacific! There is a preeettyyy strong Typhoon that has developed within 5 deg of the equator!!! Typhoon Bopha, currently at 4.5N,  has a good eye:

(satellite image from the NRL Monterey Navy site) and winds estimated to be about 130mph which makes it strong cat 3/weak cat 4 storm. It’s heading towards Palau (on Sunday), which apparently hasn’t seen a major Typhoon since 1991. Eek! After that it is heading towards the Philippines (next Weds), where it is projected to be a category 1 storm. A storm forming within 5 deg of the equator is very rare, but not unheard of. The storm that developed closest to the equator was Typhoon Vamei, which formed on 26 December, 2001, at 1.4 deg N of the equator in the South China Sea and made landfall in Malaysia with strong tropical storm/weak cat 1 winds.

With all this going on, how can one possibly go into hibernation for the off-season today?? I guess I’ll be back tomorrow. Oh lucky, lucky you! ;-)

Ciao!
J.  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, the final entry: November 1, Update A

My last word on Sandy: good luck in the clean-up and recovery process. Thanks to all those who worked through this and every other storm such as the emergency workers, and those work on after the storms have gone by, such as the utility companies. I hear that a Florida power company van was seen in New Jersey today. You are all very much appreciated!

Today marks the start of the last month of the 2012 hurricane season. I hope someone has told Mother Nature this! Remember back in 2005, when the ‘end of the season’ memo got lost? No? Well Edward in Florida reminded me of The Saga of Epsilon and Zeta: http://xkcd.com/1126/. J (A spot check shows words directly taken from NHC advisories of the time!! – thanks to Karen for the heads up on that).

I’ll be back if we have ‘Valerie’ out there.  Until then, don’t forget to enjoy a nice cup of tea. J

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, The Aftermath: October 31, Update A

Obviously a Full Moon week! Higher than usual tides on Monday night (actual full moon) when Sandy made landfall; Disney bought Star Wars (Tuesday); and Zombies having drinks with Kermit and Miss Piggy, while bananas in tutus go running around looking for sweeties (Wednesday)! (Not quite a sentence I thought I’d ever write).   

Here are a couple of photos taken by M. Ricky, a supervisor on the subway system in NYC (sent via Jose in Florida – thank you both!):

The first is looking down on a station on the Sea Beach line, the second is the 86^th station on the “N” Sea Beach line. It took me a moment to figure out what I was looking at in the first one. That  is just a small sample of the surreal images coming out of the eastern half of the US. Unfortunately the death toll from Sandy continues to rise. My condolences to those who lost loved ones from the Carribbean to Canada! L And to those who sustained damage, that is not good, but I am glad you are ok.

As the clean up from Sandy really gets into gear, on the other side of the world Tropical Cyclone Nilam made landfall earlier today, just south of Chennai in southern India. Although winds were only 65mph, making her a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm, she would have pushed water onshore in Chennai. Here was the scene from Staten Island yesterday (credit unknown):

and the one off Chennai today (credit BBC):

Tanker grounding galore!

I, too, have almost ground to a halt in talking about Sandy. She was not really a tropical system by the time she made landfall. There is an amazing cross-sectional image of the inside of Sandy, taken with a satellite called ‘Cloudsat’, on this website: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79577. The discussion under the image is rather good too, if you are interested in the scientific and techincal side of the storm.

As every seventh news item is about Star Wars or Disney (election, what election?), here is my nod to Halloween:

I have one more item to share… tomorrow.
Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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