Monday, July 08, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal: July 8, Update A

I am writing this using semaphore because apparently, as of July 1, all computers and smart phones that are connected to the internet have accidentally been banned in Florida: Oopsie. Yesterday’s update was in smoke signals, in case you were wondering.

It looks like the NHC agreed with my assessment yesterday morning after all and upgraded our little Atlantic blobette from a 40% chance of development to Tropical Storm Chantal last night. Well done. That gets my seal of approval. ;-) She was not a storm that rapidly developed… just one that was rapidly upgraded!

Cute Chantal is officially at 12.4N, 56.1W heading WNW at a brisk 26mph. She’s a weak-to-mid strength storm with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39 – 73 mph), estimated central pressure 1010mb. I am not 100% sure I agree with the location of the center at the moment. I don’t have the right data, but it looks like the center could be a little east of the official location. This means that the center of cone track may be a bit off too, but the overall cone seems about right (for the next day at least) – so Barbados, get your raincoats out! I do think she will continue on a more westerly track until she gets into the Caribbean.

She is going over an area where sea surface temperatures are 28-30 deg C and the upper 100m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C, which means she has plenty of warm water to sustain her and allow for some growth. She is an area of low wind shear, which will also allow her to grow. Although she is surrounded by dry and dusty air as you can see in this satellite image of water vapor, it’s not enough to stop her and I think she will continue to slowly grow.

I’ll be back with more on Chantal tomorrow, which will of course be sent by morse code over the wireless.

In the meantime, to continue celebrating the men’s singles championship at Wimbledon, today’s Tennis Trivia: Agatha Christie is credited with the first use of the phrase 'tennis-pro' in her 1942 novel The Body in the Library. (Thanks to Literary Interest (@InterestingLit) for that one!)


Twitter: @JyovianStorm
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

1 comment:

Christian said...

This is fantastic!