Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Tropical Storm Dorian and the Atlantic Blobette: July 24, Update A

Moving only hours faster than the UK Royal Family, Tropical Storm Dorian was ‘born’ on Monday and named earlier today. I’m in the UK this week celebrating my brother’s wedding and, of course, happened to be serendipitously here for the arrival of Prince George Alexander Louis... so er… some of these next few updates may be a little wonky depending on the champagne-o-meter! ;-)

Tropical Storm Dorian

Tropical Storm Dorian is currently at 14.3N, 29.9W heading WNW at 21mph. He is a small-to-mid Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb. Like the new Prince, he looks like a healthy little thing as you can see in this visible satellite image:

And in this infra-red satellite image, in which he is decidedly not Dorian Gray (you didn’t think you could get away without a literary reference did you? J):

His circulation is pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere (about what I would expect for a mid-sized Tropical Storm) and the sea surface water temperature is about 27 deg C.

His official track currently takes him in the direction of the northern Caribbean and the Virgin Islands. This is quite possible, although I think he may be tracking a little to the north of the center of cone and so there is still a chance he will curve out into the Atlantic. Also, he may not be a hurricane (or a weak one if he does become one) because he is going to pass over an area of colder water and he is heading into an area of dry air which will inhibit his development and keep him in check, even though wind shear is quite weak.  I would still polish those wellington boots in preparation if I were on those islands!

Mid-Atlantic Blobette

Another little blobette popped up today and currently resides at Nowhere In Particular, The Atlantic Ocean (around 29N, 55W). Circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, wind shear is not very strong, and water temperatures are 29-30 deg C, so she has plenty to help her along. The one inhibiting factor is that she is in an area of dry air. I’ll keep an eye on her, but it’s too soon to say if she’s the future TS Erin.

More tomorrow of course! Time for another celebratory glass and some munchies.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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