Thursday, July 25, 2013

Tropical Storm Dorian: July 25, Update A

Not much time to dilly dally on Dorian today and luckily the Atlantic Blobette from yesterday seems to be dwindling, so I won’t mention her again unless she has a few classic Scottish meals of deep-fried frozen pizzas served with chips and cheese and puts on a few pounds.

Tropical Storm Dorian is at 16.5N, 37.8W heading generally WNW at 18mph. It looks like he was tracking slightly north of the center of cone track yesterday and the cone has shifted so it barely skims the VIs and Puerto Rico now:

Oscar Wilde, author of ‘The Picture of Tropical Storm Dorian Gray’ wrote “People who count their chickens before they are hatched act very wisely, because chickens run about so absurdly that it is impossible to count them accurately.” However if you live in that part of the world I wouldn’t quite count those chickens yet so don’t put the wellies away for another day or two. I agree with the NHC on the general WNW track for the next few days and how close it gets to the island isn’t clear to me. The other complication is that I’m not sure that the timing of that forecast track is correct. Both the track and timing of the storm depends on the atmospheric pressure fields and they aren’t very clear for tomorrow (at least not to me).    

He has slowly been intensifying, but is still officially a mid-intensity storm with winds of 60 mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 999mb. I think this may be fractionally on the low side because the circulation has really improved in the lower half of the troposphere and there is now a small signal in the upper troposphere. This indicates a strong Tropical Storm – maybe in the 65-70 mph range. Sea surface water temperatures are a bit warmer than yesterday, but still on the cool side at around 26 deg C and there continues to be dry air to his north and west. However wind shear remains very low. Convection is strong over a small area near the center of the storm, as you can see here:

Tomorrow he will continue to move over warmer waters, so that along with the low wind shear may be enough to allow him to continue to intensify (slowly).

I’ll continue to watch his evolution tomorrow (along with one or two other people). Speaking of evolution… (heehee)… the UK 10 pound note is about to evolve as Charles Darwin will be replaced by Jane Austen. Oh no (says the scientist in me) and woo hoo (says the bibliophile in me)!

Until tomorrow,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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