Friday, September 18, 2015

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine, the Atlantic Blob and Blobette: September 18, Update A

Thanks for all your replies on your favourite Star Trek show! Although I didn't hear from anyone who loved the Star Trek series 'Enterprise'. (just as well really, I never could get past the opening song...!)

So, we have a few blobs and blobettes bouncing around out there in the Atlantic I see. 

Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine - although it looks like she's heading for the general vicinity of Bermuda, I am not sure she will get that far in any meaningful manner. There hasn't been much change in this one over the last couple of days. She still only has circulation in the very lowest levels of the troposphere and nothing much in the middle or upper troposphere. Also, her convection has pretty much vanished:
By the time she gets anywhere near Bermuda, I think she'll just be a lovely breeze. I probably won't write anything else on her unless she gets stronger. 

Atlantic Blob - The force is strong with this one. I would already have classified it as a Tropical Depression, if not a Tropical Storm actually:
There is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and I see a signal in the upper troposphere. It looks like the center is somewhere around 13N, 36W and it's generally moving WNW. 

The convection is not very well organized at the moment...
This system has some dry air in front of it, which is perhaps the only thing that is stopping it from already being fully formed. On the other hand, wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are over 26 deg C so if the convection does improve and that upper troposphere vorticity signal continues, then we may eventually have a hurricane. 

Atlantic Blobette  - there is another blobette off the coast of east Florida. If you look at the vorticity maps, this one is actually more of a front than a tropical system. Here is the map from the middle level of the troposphere (500mb):

It clearly shows the 'front' over Florida and the eastern US seaboard. It also shows Tropical Depression Deep-Space Nine (the 'L'), and the clear and stronger vorticity signal of the Atlantic Blob that may already be a Tropical Storm to the southeast of the 'L'.

That's all for now. I have to run off to a cool meeting - I'm in the heart of Silicon Valley this week, learning about the latest and greatest in robotics, Artificial Intelligence, 3D printing, virtual reality, and all that cool stuff of the near-future. Lots of advancements in many areas - from medicine to manufacturing, from transportation to telecommunications. So, why aren't we moving ahead at the same pace in ocean sensing and tropical storm forecasting? Just wondering... 


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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