Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Tropical Storm Fred and the Impressive Pacific: September 1, Update A

Tropical Storm lovely Fred is still hanging out in the middle of the Atlantic. Currently he's at around 19.4N, 29.1W, heading WNW at 13mph. He is a fairly small Tropical Storm, with winds estimated to be 50mph and central pressure estimated to be 1003mb. 

I would agree with keeping his Tropical Storm status because the circulation is pretty strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There is not signal in the upper troposphere, so he is definitely not any stronger than a Tropical Storm. 

I also agree in keeping him as a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph) because his convection is pretty poor:

There are no very strong thunderstorms left (no dark red areas now), and it looks like a lot of his convection is just cloud cover (those 50 shades of lighter grey and blue). As I said yesterday, this is because he ran smack dab into the the Saharan Air Layer:
There are a couple of other things that will keep his intensity down. He is over sea surface water of 26-27 deg C, which is enough to sustain him but not let him grow (only the upper ~25-40m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C). Also, he is about to enter an area of stronger wind shear, so we may see him get weaker tomorrow. The NHC have him down to a Tropical Depression on Thursday. Seems like a good plan to me. 

Meanwhile... over in the Pacific, a lost Van Gogh has been discovered! And what a magnificent one it is too! I showed the water vapor image of the central Pacific yesterday, but here is the infrared satellite image of the eastern and central Pacific:

We have a full hand! Typhoon Kilo (formerly a hurricane) on the left, Hurricane Jimena is the good looking one in the lower center, Tropical Storm Ignacio is just north of Hawaii, and Tropical Depression 14 as the red blob to the right. Rather Impressive, hey?

And on that note, I shall say Adieu! (until tomorrow)

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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