Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Tropical Storm Gaston and the Atlantic Blobette: August 23, Update A

Ice cream. Oh joy. :-) 

Tropical Storm Gaston
As expected, Gaston is now officially a mid-t0-strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph (central pressure estimated to be 1002mb). His vorticity (circulation) has continued to strengthen today throughout the troposphere and actually, I think he is already a weak cat 1 hurricane (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). You can even see some nice structure in the satellite images: 

The convection is pretty good, although he is still slightly inhibited by the Saharan Air Layer. The NHC will most likely upgrade him to a hurricane tomorrow. 

He is currently at 14.7N, 37.1W, heading WNW at 17mph. Uh-oh! It looks like in the last couple of days NOAA has removed the websites that had the pressure maps that I consulted (it now says 'This service is no longer available'). I will have to find another source! What a pickle!! And after over 15 years of using that website!! For now, this means that I will not be able to asses the track (although I have to say, the NHC are really very good at the track at 1-2 days out now).  For today, the official track takes Gaston east of Bermuda. The track has been relatively consistent after 5 days, so I will assume that the NHC are on the ball with that.  

Atlantic Blobette
I think this Blobette should already be named (TS Hermine) because her vorticity (circulation) is quite strong in the lower half of the troposphere. But for now, she remains officially a Blobette at around 17N, 67W, heading WNW at 15-20mph.  Regardless of what she is (ahem, Tropical Storm, ahem), those Islands in the Caribbean are getting a toot of rain:

The convection is certainly not well formed, but it is quite strong with the red areas representing areas of strong thunderstorms. 

Oh, and before I wrap up there is one more thing. Whoever has that Zika virus in St. Peters-'bug' (Florida) better stop it right now and put it back where you got it. The CDC is not very happy with you. There, I think that's about it for today.  Time for a bit more ice cream I think. :-) 


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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