Thursday, September 13, 2018

Hurricane Florence: September 13, Update B

Good job I posted a bunch earlier - the internet in this particular airport is a little dicey! 

The news is getting better for the Great Florence Watch of '18. She looks a little weaker as she is starting to interact with land - that and the wind shear, and possibly that she's been dragging this out sooo long that she's beginning to cool some of the water underneath her is working. She is now solidly a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure of 955mb. Even that might be a little high and she may be a weak cat 2.  There's also what looks like a delicious patch of dry air in her outer bands, which is clearly seen in the infrared satellite imagery (and slightly seen in the visible imagery) and her eye is flickering:

Although she won't be as big a wind issue as a major (cat 3 or higher) hurricane, she'll still bring down some trees/branches and damage some roofs. She's definitely a hurricane because she still has good vorticity throughout the troposphere, but the key thing to watch out for now is when her center actually crosses the Gulf Stream in a few hours - that's where the water is warm and it's deep and warm so if she's going to grow or intensify again, that's when it will happen. But I have to say that I am jolly pleased with that patch of dryer air! That's fantabulicious! 

She's centered at 33.4N, 75.5W, heading NW at 10mph - she has slowed down over the last few hours as predicted by the NHC and as shown in their track forecast. She may slow down enough that she'll actually cool the water underneath her even more after she's had her fill, which would be just fine. But added to that, the waters closest to the coast are cooler, so that will also help to keep her a little in control.

Although she is getting weaker, there will still be water issues - rain and of course the storm surge as she is a big storm and is slowing down offshore which means she'll continue to push water.  The highest surge will be to the north of her because that's the direction the winds are pushing water on-shore. For example, Wrightsville Beach, NC, is showing around 1.3 ft above normal. 

Some more bits of advice: 
- Watch out for downed power lines - don't go splashing in the puddles after she passes by. 
- When the power goes out, don't forget to start by rescuing the ice cream first.
- And my friend says be safe when the power does go out... she can't afford too many baby showers in the spring.

More from me from some other point in space and time.

Be good! 

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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