Wednesday, September 05, 2018

Tropical Storm Gordon, Hurricane Florence, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 4, Update B

Goodness me, there's a bunch going on isn't there? Tropical Storm Gordon, Hurricane Florence, and another Atlantic Blobette! Better get an extra big glass of wine tonight!

Tropical Storm Gordon
He just made landfall in Mississippi, just west of the Alabama border about 30 miles east of Biloxi, at 30.4N, 88.4W. He is heading NW at 14mph: 

He's still a very strong tropical storm with winds of 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 997mb and didn't quite get to that cat 1 level. There isn't much circulation in the upper levels of the troposphere, so I agree with this. 

As I said earlier, he will really be a water issue more than a wind issue. He's got a bunch of convection which has been mostly falling over Alabama and half a bucket on the western end of the Florida panhandle during the day, and is now, of course, reaching Mississippi: 
Just make sure you have your umbrellas and raincoats handy! And stay safe out there. This is, most likely, my last update on Gordon.

Hurricane Florence
A memory from my childhood: Florence from the Magic Roundabout :-) 

(no, you don't need to clean your glasses... that's about the resolution of TV images back in those days :-)). 

She's currently out there in the Atlantic at 20.7N, 43.9W and is heading WNW at 12mph... with a big wide Atlantic to play in, of course she would be heading in the general direction of the only island out there, Bermuda: 
That track is a little too smooth at the moment - from the pressure fields, it looks like she'll continue more-or-less in heading WNW for the next day or two, but there's a good possibility that she'll then either slow down or take a turn to the west because there is a ridge of high pressure that she'll have to get around. It's a little too soon to say if she'll get to Bermuda island or jump on the magic roundabout and head back towards Europe, but best get the rum ready just in case. 

She's a mid-sized cat 2 storm at the moment with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 95-110mph), central pressure of 976mb. I'd agree with this estimate. She is definitely a hurricane because there is good circulation (vorticity) throughout the troposphere, including at the highest level (200mb): 
You can see a little 'green' splodge (technical term ;-)) peeking out under the solid red hurricane symbol, compared to Gordon (the tropical storm symbol), which doesn't have a splodge, but instead is teetering on the edge of an upper level low. If you need a refresher on the circulation and what the image above is showing, read the <Science Alert!> in this post:

You can also see her lovely circulation in the satellite imagery: 

The good news is that she is entering an area of stronger wind shear which will inhibit her from intensifying much more: 
(if you need a refresher on the wind shear map, check out the <Technical Alert!> here:

More on Florence tomorrow.

Atlantic Blobette
There's also a wee little blobette hanging out at around 12N, 24W, as you can see from the orange crayon mark on the image below:
There isn't much well-developed circulation at the moment, although there is some. There is also a little bit of rain and the NHC are giving her a 40% chance of developing into something fun in the next 2 days. The next name up is Helene!

And before I leave, a geeky tribute to Jaqueline Pearce, perhaps better known as Servalan, in Blake's 7 (my favourite TV show of all time), passed away yesterday. Supreme Commander Servalan is, hands down, the most fashionably iconic evil character in science fiction:
Paraphrased from the Guardian: She was no stereotypical evildoer with her "propensity to stride across the universe in glamorous attire...". She was clearly an inspiration to a generation of young ladies (such as myself!). (Just watch out if you see me in a black feathery top... bwaahaahaa ;-)). RIP and thank you! 

Until tomorrow,

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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