Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six: August 26, Update A

"The true mystery of the world is the visible, not the invisible." - The Picture of Dorian Gray. 
And visible today are Tropical Storm Dorian (Gray) and Tropical Depression Six (formerly known as the Atlantic Blobette)...
This satellite image of the water vapor clearly shows Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six. 
Tropical Storm Dorian (Gray)
He is at 13.2N, 60.2W, heading WNW at 13mph. He hasn't intensified much since yesterday and still has winds of 50mph, central pressure of 1005mb. He looks a little better developed than this suggests, but this is based on data from a Hurricane Hunter plane so that should be pretty solid.
He passed close to Barbados earlier today and is heading towards the windward islands: 
The path takes him over Puerto Rico as a weak cat 1 hurricane. I think the path may be shifted slightly to the north and east, but that track depends a lot on how strong he is once he crosses into the Caribbean.
The water vapor shows that there is dry air in front of him, which will inhibit his development. There is also some wind shear in the Caribbean, but it may be a little too far in front of him to make a huge impact. The water is, of course, quite toasty warm which would allow him to slowly grow. But, as I said yesterday, his intensity once he crosses into the Caribbean will depend on his exact track and whether he visits any island - so we will have to wait and see how close he gets to St. Lucia (which is the island directly in his path):

Tropical Depression Six
This one became an official Tropical Depression, which means that there is a closed circulation with winds higher than 17mph. She is officially at 31.5N, 72.2W, heading E at a very slow 3mph. Her winds are at 35mph (which may be a little high actually) and central pressure is 1010mb. She is not very well organized, and they think the center is to the north west of the mass of clouds, which means she is under a lot of wind shear with most of the clouds to the south:

 It's hard to assess the center of circulation from this night-time satellite image, but there is definitely wind shear. It looks like they will give her a name tomorrow though - in which case, this is the future Tropical Storm Erin. Her path keeps her out at sea until Thursday when she approaches Canada as Tropical Storm. 

I was going to talk about my other exciting project today... but it was a busy sort of day at work so I may have to take a rain check (because what else does one do when one talks about the weather? ;-)). 

Until the morrow!
Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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