Sunday, August 25, 2019

Tropical Storm Dorian, the Atlantic Blobette, and Hashtag: August 25, Update A

I didn't write about short-lived little Tropical Storm Chantal as she wasn't being much of a bother; just hanging out in the Atlantic with the fisheeeze last week. But today we have a few things on the palette: a bona fida Tropical Storm, a bona fida blobette, and my bona fida Award-winning film (oh yes, quite a year for a geeky scientist... read on!). 


Tropical Storm Dorian

I'd like to paint a Picture of a mass of Gray swirling clouds named Dorian... too obvious? ;-) #OscarWilde

Dorian has been a blob in the Atlantic for a few days and was named yesterday. He is currently at 11.5N, 54.2W and is moving W at a pretty decent 14mph. He is a weak-to-mid-level Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 1003mb. His circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but, unlike the Dorian Gray of legend, he isn't very good looking yet (no clear circular cloud pattern) so I agree with this TS classification. 

Here is the loop for the infrared cloud top imagery (I dub this image The Picture of Tropical Storm Dorian Gray... :-))...

There is a little wind shear from the south which we see because the clouds are extending to the north of the main convection. This shear is helping to slow his development. It also looks like he has a bit of drier air (the dark purple bits) in front of him as he heads towards the Caribbean, which will also keep him in check:

The forecast is that he will cross the Windward Islands and enter the Caribbean on Tuesday:
The water temperatures in his path are warm - over 28 deg C, with the upper ~100m of the water column being warmer than 26 degrees, which gives him enough fuel to continue to grow. But, in addition to wind shear and dry air, there is one more factor that will inhibit his growth as he crosses into the Caribbean are the islands themselves. We've seen storms fall apart if the center crosses directly over the mountainous island terrain. At the moment I agree with the intensity forecast, but his strength in the Caribbean depends very much on his path.

Atlantic Blobette
This blobette is still under development. She has a 70% chance of forming in the next 48 hours according to the NHC. Their current guess for a location is around 31N, 76W:

There is some circulation, but it's not very well formed. It does looks like it is developing so I agree that something is brewing, but I think where the official 'x marks the spot' is currently too far north - I'd say it was closer to 26N, 70W. They are planning on sending a plane in tomorrow to investigate and bring back some 'proper' data and we'll know more then

More on these storms tomorrow. I have to say thank goodness it's been a slowish storm year so far as I really needed the time! Two major 'projects' I've been working on came to a close in the last few months, both exciting and different.

Hashtag - a Short Sci-Fi Film! (when in LA...)
In case I somehow managed not to slip this into casual conversation (inconceivable!), I produced a short science fiction film in my spare spare time (as you do) called Hashtag. It stars Gigi Edgley (Farscape, Jim Henson's Creature Shop Challenge), Erryn Arkin (CSI, Home and Away), and Juliet Landau (Bosch, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Ed Wood) as the voice of the AI assistant, T'ea. Ben Alpi (director/co-writer, and my lovely hubby... hence being involved in this project (yes, we're still married! ;-)) and I have been submitting to film festivals and I'm proud to say it has been accepted into 10 Film Festivals so far (plus a special UK premiere screening at SCI-FI Ball). Here is the trailer...

I'm also very thrilled to share that it has won TWO Awards (to date)!! Overall Best Short Film at Gen Con Film Festival in Indiana in early August, and today we found out we won Best International SciFi Short Film at New Renaissance Film Festival in London!

I know some of you have worked on this film (we had around 80 cast and crew on this) and some of you are backers (we had almost 300 backers) - congratulations to you all and Thank You! :-)

Tomorrow I'll tell you about the conclusion of the second 'project'! But today... time for a celebratory beverage all round methinks. 

Ciao for now, 

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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