Tuesday, June 02, 2020

The 'Official' Start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season: June 1

Greetings and Salutations my friends! Welcome to the official start of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season! I don't think there's going to be enough ice cream, cheese, wine, tea, or lychee martinis to cover this year. Still, I'm glad we got through the quiet half of the year....  

Mother Nature woke up a little early with Tropical Storm Arthur, a genuine storm, in mid-May. Then she tried to sneak in Tropical Storm Bertha, a non-genuine storm, who really shouldn't have been named in my opinion because she wasn't a prim and proper tropical storm at all. But, as we've seen in the past, if the forecast is for a busy season, that's what it magically will be!

So, what are the predictions for this year anyway? In keeping with the overall theme for 2020, it looks like everyone is expecting a busier than usual season: 

Tropical Storm Risk (prediction date: 28 May): 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University (prediction date: 14 May): 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes.

UK Met Office (prediction date: 20 May): 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.

NOAA (prediction date: 21 May): 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes. 

The 70-year long-term average number of named tropical storms is 12, the average number of hurricanes per year is 6, and the number of major hurricanes (category 3 or higher) is 3. 

I suppose looking at a wine glass half full (which clearly means it's almost time for a refill!), two of the named storms are already off the list, and it looks like a third one is brewing.

Tropical Depression Three is hanging out in the Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche:

Winds are 30mph, so it's not yet a TS (winds have to be 39 mph for it to be a Tropical storm), central pressure is 1005mb. They think it will be named tomorrow - the next name on the list is TS Cristobal. He's not very strong, but will bring some rain over Mexico. More about that tomorrow. 

Now, back to the start of the season stuff... are you prepared? The usual hurricane supplies should include water, wine, ice cream, a good book to read, wine, some candles, ice cream, a radio for mood, batteries, some more wine, mosquito repellent, and lots and lots of cans of lychees, gin, and lychee liquor for the martinis. A 2020 special edition update: face masks, hand sanitizer, wipes, and ear plugs for the emergence of billions of cicadas that takes place once every 17 years (yes, of course 2020 is that year) in parts of the US! 

Over the last year a few more very intelligent and good-looking readers joined me (current hits on the website > 270,000) so if this is your first start-of-the-season post, here are my top 10 notes about this blog. Have a quick read and if you think this is going to be too boring for you, it is summer time after all so you can always watch the grass grow instead. ;-)

Top 10 things to note about this blog:

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may, with some imagination and possibly after a glass or two of wine (or lychee martinis), fit those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (always thrilling!), please ask me about it.

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all perfectly acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a soothing cup of tea instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think are important.

8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

9. I confess I am a twit. I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm). Twitter is cool sometimes. Just like bow-ties are cool (Dr. Who) sometimes. I will post these updates on Twitter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins, my job, my movie, other people’s jobs, other people's movies, cool science, goofy things etc. so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s the place to lurk.

10. I will refer to ice cream, wine, cheese, cups of tea, and lychee martinis fairly frequently. To preemptively answer your questions, I do eat and drink other things for a balanced diet. For example, prawn cocktail crisps, fruit & nut chocolate, water.

That's more-or-less it from curfew in LA for tonight. I hope that the last few days will bring about meaningful changes! 

Ciao for now,

p.s. if you fancy a 15 minutes short sci-fi break from the news, the movie I produced, Hashtag, is finally available on line!

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

No comments: