Saturday, June 06, 2020

Tropical Storm Cristobal: June 5, Update A

Another weekend, another storm!

TS Cristobal is currently at 22.7N, 90.1W, heading N at a pretty decent 14mph. The track forecast cone of uncertainty is quite narrow, which means that he is heading for Louisiana and the Mississippi Delta/New Orleans part of the world:
It's too soon to say exactly which side of the delta the center will go. A Tropical Storm in the northern hemisphere spins anti-clockwise. So, if the center falls to the left side of the cone - to the west of the delta - it will push water upstream and towards New Orleans and there is a possibility of flooding. If it is to the right side - to the east of the delta - then there will be less flooding. As the storm approaches the coast, water will get pushed towards land and up the river. 

There is good circulation throughout the lower half of the troposphere, so he's definitely a Tropical Storm. You can also see some nice circulation in the satellite imagery:

Isn't he a big guy? Spanning the entire Gulf from top to bottom! 

He is currently a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45 mph, central pressure of 998mb (TS range: 39-74mph). The NHC forecast calls for a mid-level Tropical Storm with maximum winds reaching no more than 60mph over the next couple of days - starting tomorrow night and into Sunday morning. Then they think he will weaken before landfall, so at landfall he will be a weak storm with winds of 50mph. I'm not 100% sold on this - I think there's a chance that he will be stronger as he moves over that area of deep warm water I showed yesterday, so I wouldn't be surprised if he is strong Tropical Storm with winds closer to 70mph as he moves into the northern Gulf. 

But I can see why they think he won't develop too much - there is some wind shear and some dry air, which is holding his convection in check. This is why it's easy to see his center of circulation. There is more light grey clouds in the above satellite image instead of areas of heavy convection around the center. You can see the dry air being entrained into him in the water vapor imagery:

We'll see what happens tomorrow as he passes over that area of warm water - it'll be a tussle between the atmosphere and the ocean! 

It's Friday, and the end of another week of zoom meetings... 

I reckon that's it for today! 

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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