Sunday, August 22, 2021

Hurricane Henri: 21 August, Update B

A quick update Regarding Henri... 

He is officially at around 38.6N, 71W, heading N at a fast 21 mph. Although he was in the Cone of Uncertainty he stayed on the eastern side and so the track forecast did, indeed, shift to the east: 

He may shift east a little more - the range of the cone at landfall is quite broad still. They are expecting him to take a NNW turn soon, but I don't see it quite yet. 

Officially he is still a very weak cat 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph, central pressure of 987mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I still think he's weaker - a strong Tropical Storm. The wind shear is so clearly evident in the satellite imagery, although it is starting to decrease a bit now: 

He gained a little more convective structure but that is because he is still going over the Gulf Stream (warm - and deep warm - water) and the wind shear is decreasing a little. There is still a lot of dry air being pulled into this storm, which we can see from the lower level water vapour satellite imagery:

From this image, he does look like a bit of a mess.

However, he still has about 20 hours until landfall, so he could get a little stronger. I still think he'll be a very weak cat 1 storm or strong TS at landfall, and I think the NHC are thinking along the same lines as they have downgraded his longer term intensity forecast to be an 80mph storm at landfall.

As he approaches, please heed your local emergency managers because they have the best information. 

More tomorrow! Be good out there! 

Ciao for now,




These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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