Sunday, August 29, 2021

Hurricane Ida: 28 August, Update B

Just checking in up on Ida one more time before the end of the day. She is at 27.6N, 88.7W, heading NW at 15mph:

She has been slower to intensify than the NHC expected, but was just upgraded to a weak cat 3 storm with winds of 115mph, central pressure is 955mb (cat 3 range: 111-129mph). I would agree with the cat 3 status - she is a little stronger which we know because the eye is a little steadier, the vorticity (circulation) is even stronger in the upper levels of the troposphere, and the pressure is a lot lower than earlier in the day. 

She is moving over that Loop Current Eddy region and we can see that the deep warm water has strengthened her convection quite a bit: 

The strong thunderstorms and tornado-generating weather in the red area has expanded and now fully encloses the eye. But the storm is already interacting with land - we can see some of the stronger outer bands over the Florida panhandle and along the Alabama coast, dropping a bucket or two of rain here and there. 

However, she has reached the northern edge of that Loop Current Eddy: 

so she won't have too much more deep warm water to cross in a couple more hours, and she won't intensify too much further. They still maintain she will have winds of 130mph at landfall, which means she will be a borderline cat 4 storm (130-156mph). She will most likely be a strong cat 3 - still a major hurricane (cat 3 and higher are major hurricanes). 

She is going to make landfall west of the Mississippi Delta, which means that water levels will increase in New Orleans. As parts of New Orleans are below Sea Level, they have levees. For New Orleans, even though the storm will have made landfall, it will take a day or longer for the water to drain out of Lake Pontchartrain, so I'm sure everyone will be watching and monitoring the levees carefully. Storm surge is now a lot higher than it was earlier today. At Shell Beach, LA, it is already almost 3 ft above normal: 

At New Canal Station in New Orleans, LA, water is almost 2ft above normal:

And at Dauphin Island, AL, water is also almost 1.5ft above normal: 

Good luck to those in Ida's path! Be safe out there! 

(and I see TD 11 has officially been numbered - both TDs are expected to become Tropical Storms tomorrow (Sunday)).

Until tomorrow,


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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