Friday, September 03, 2021

Hurricane Larry: 2 September, Update A

It's almost the weekend, which means... there's a storm out there. Raise your hands if you were expecting that. 

But before we dive into that storm, one more note on Tropical Depression Ida... we knew she was going to cause flooding, but she certainly had a lot more to say as she crossed the US to the northeast. What a mess! Given the destruction and loss of life, this is the last time we will ever see a Tropical Storm Ida. Particularly devastating storm names are removed from the rotation, so in 6 years, we'll have some other 'I' named storm. Now really, that is my last note on Ida. She has left the building (well the US anyway although she is over eastern Canada at the moment). 

Hurricane Larry

Three days ago, this was the the blob that was coming out of Africa and had some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. And then he grew.... 

He was named yesterday and became a hurricane today. He is currently out there in the middle of the Atlantic at 14.1N, 37.5W, currently heading W at 20mph:

The forecast shows that he will turn towards the northwest soon and may, or may not, head to Bermuda (time get dust off your Force Field again!). 

He is officially a mid-size cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure 985mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). He definitely has a lot of strong convection: 

And he also has a lot of circulation in all levels of the troposphere, which is a clear indication that he is a hurricane. Here's the lowest level vorticity map (850mb): 

Here's the vorticity map in the mid-level (500mb): 

And here's the vorticity map in the upper level (200mb): 

You can see his very clear signal and given that orange/red blob at all levels his structure is really quite robust. He tried to form an eye but didn't quite get there today, so so I agree with the current estimate of wind speed of 85mph. There isn't much wind shear, but there was a sliver of dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer that crept in which prevented the eye from developing - you can just about see it wrapping around from northeast...

But once he clears that dusty air, given how strong his vorticity already is, he will intensify and I can see why he would become a major hurricane. The current projection is for a cat 4 storm with winds of 140mph by Sunday/Monday. 

I'd get ready on Bermuda just in case, but he may stay on a little more of a westward track for longer than currently forecast and that track shifts a little to the west. 

Ciao for now,


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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