Thursday, September 30, 2021

Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor: 29 September, Update A

Hurricane Sam-I-Am is still out there, gobbling up as many green eggs and ham as he can find I suspect. I, too, had green eggs for breakfast once. That was the delightful delicacy I and my fellow young seafarers were served as part of our equator crossing ceremony many moons ago. :-) 

Hurricane Sam-I-Am

So, what's he up to today? He's at 20.6N, 58.4W, heading NW at 12mph and should still clear Bermuda by a couple of hundred miles or so on Friday night: 

But what he does after Saturday is quite a bit more uncertain. There is a small chance that he could head a little closer towards Newfoundland than the current track shows, but it's a tad too soon to say. 

He is a mid-to-strong Cat 4 storm at the moment with winds of 145mph, central pressure of 940mb (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). There isn't any wind shear, he is over some deliciously warm water of around 28 deg C, the dry air is no longer a factor, so he is quite good looking with a lovely clear eye: 

But, he is kindly staying away from the Islands and just doing what he is supposed to be doing as a hurricane, which is to transfer heat energy, very effectively I might add, from the tropical areas to the northern parts of the world.

Tropical Storm Victor

We have another storm in the Atlantic - named today as Victor. You can see him in the satellite imagery: 

He actually has a lot more convection (rain and thunder) than Sam, but he isn't as well developed yet. He is officially barely a TS with winds estimated to be 40mph, central pressure 1005mb (TS range: 39-74mph). I think he may be a little stronger than this because his circulation is quite robust in the lower half of the troposphere and there is some circulation in the upper levels of the troposphere which indicates he is approaching hurricane strength, but at least he is far out there and not bothering anyone. By the way, planes don't fly out that far so the intensity is only estimated. The reason we have a better idea of what Sam is doing is because of data that is coming back from planes that fly through the storm. This data helps improve the forecast models. 

 Victor is at 8.4N, 26.7W, moving WNW at 13mph: 

And he will stay in the Atlantic, continuing to mind his own business. I will keep an eye on him, but may not write about Victor again unless he does something odd. 

Toodle pip,


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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