Saturday, September 04, 2021

Hurricane Larry: 3 September, Update A

Just a quick note for Friday eve as I think things will get a tad busier in a couple of days...

Hurricane Larry is now a weak cat 3 storm and therefore a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane) with winds of 115mph, central pressure 965mb (cat 3 range: 111-129mph). His convection isn't as strong as I would expect for a cat 3 storm and although he does have an eye, it is not very persistent:

However, his vorticity (circulation) is really strong at all levels of the troposphere, so I would put him as a strong cat 2 storm really. But a weak cat 3 is close enough - I mean really, what's 5 mph between pals? There is not a lot of wind shear at the moment,  and although it looks like it may increase a little in a couple of days, I am not yet sure it will be enough to get him off his major hurricane perch. 

His is currently at 15.5N, 43.3W, heading WNW at 16mph. The track is still towards the general Bermuda region, arriving there around Thursday: 

I think he may still move a little more to the west, or at least stick to the western side of the Cone of Uncertainty, but best to keep an eye on the entire cone.

Speaking of cones... it's time for ice cream. :-) 

Until tomorrow!



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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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