Tropical Storm Agatha: May 31, 2010 - a potential Pacific Interloper!

Beep beep beep, the sirens have gone off: we have a Pacific interloper in the Caribbean! I don't think this one counts for Atlantic storms (yet), but I'll mention it anyway.

A system looks like it might be re-developing just off the coast of Belize, in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Agatha was the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, lasted for about 12 hours, hit Guatamala yesterday(ish) and resulted in numerous deaths (from heavy rains etc).

The Guatamalans have had a busy week as far as natural disasters. The Pacaya Volcano erupted on May 27 covering the capital, Guatamala City, with something like 8cm of ash, resulting in some loss of life, and shutting down airspace. Also, whilst I'm rambling about rumblings, less than a day later the Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador also erupted, spewing out rocks and ash and stuff (that's technical jargon for er... stuff). Both have calmed down a bit now (I think). Back to tropical storms (these other pesky natural disasters just keep getting in the way!).

So, Tropical Storm Agatha - although there is some circulation, she doesn't look too healthy because the whole system is still interacting with the central American landmass. But there is considerable convection developing over the portion of the system that is over the rather warm (30 deg C and higher) Caribbean waters.

Storms that cross from one basin to another are called... (drum-roll please)... "crossover storms" (are you surprised? ;-)). There have been about 8 or 9 that have sneaked into the Atlantic from the Eastern Pacific, and 12 or so from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific (the most recent in 2008). Those numbers aren't definite because many of them were before we had good observations. If a storm retains it's structure as it crosses, it keeps its name. But if it falls apart during the crossing and then re-develops in the other basin, it gets re-named to the next storm in the new basin.

I won't mention Agatha again unless she decides she wants to completely cross-over and become Alex (first name for the Atlantic system). :-)

I'll send out a proper 'welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season' message tomorrow. It might be entertaining. It might not. ;-)

Hasta Manana!
J.

------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and planning to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Volcanic Ash Special

Hello my friends :-)

Don't Panic! (phew, got that Douglas Adams quote in early this year). No tropical storms. Yet. ;-)

But, alas, I had to come out of hibernation a little early. Too many other things are going on. Yawwwnnn. Cuppa tea anyone?

For a start, Iceland decided they would like to have a larger role in global events. They've already played their "Financial melt-down" card and handed it over to Greece. So now we have the "Volcanic eruption/glacial meltdown" card AND, to really show us what's what, they picked a volcano with a name that Prince would be proud of. The-Volcano-In-Iceland, formerly known as Eyjafjallajokull, began rumbling a few months ago, resulting in a minor eruption in March. So minor in fact that most of the planet payed absolutely no attention. Deciding it didn't like being ignored, it had another go on April 14 and by April 15 a large ash plume was heading towards the rest of Europe, causing some minor (!) problems here and there (or so I heard). It was idyllic being stuck in the UK during that time - contrail-free blue(ish) skies, warm weather, birds tweeting, cows mooing, flowers blooming, and the slight coating of some metallic and bitter tasting stuff on my skin didn't do me any long term damage (well, none that anyone could detect anyway ;-)) .

So, just in case you are silly enough to want to fly across the Atlantic any time in the next 2 years (says she, who flew across about 5 days ago), I thought you'd like to know where to look for forecasts and what the volcano is doing.

But first the REALLY important stuff... "How to look good and impress your friends: A phonetic guide to Eyjafjallajokull":
From Iceland's embassy in Washington, via NPR, this is how you say Eyjafjallajokull: "AY-yah-fyah-lah-YOH-kuul."
(http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/04/iceland_volcano_eyjafjallajoku.html). There's a little audio clip on there too, so you can hear someone saying it (warning: you'll be saying it with a proper Icelandic accent if you listen to it too much). With 3 weeks of practice, I can now pronounce it correctly after 1.5 glasses of wine. Of course no-one else knows what I'm saying, they are just impressed I have the approximate number of syllables. ;-)

For volcanic ash forecasting the world is divided into regions with a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (or Center ;-); VAAC) per region. Each VAAC is responsible for providing the official global forecast for ash from any misbehaving volcano in it's region (see website below). The London VAAC covers Iceland and is based in the UK Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/index.html. This website has the latest Volcanic Ash advisory information. Click on "London VAA: Issued graphics" text(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html). There's a looong list of numbers (PFXD...) next to a date and time stamp (the time is GMT), click on the top one which is the latest forecast, and you'll see four maps. Each map is a forecast for a different time. The top left map is the first in the series and has the year, the month (05), the date/time (Z stands for Zulu time, which is GMT). The red line shows ash location in the lower levels of the atmosphere (SFC-FL200), the green dotted line (FL200/FL350) is ash location at cruising altitude for many flights. FL stands for Flight Level in this case, not Florida :-), so FL350 is a cruising altitude of 35,000 ft.

For a ROUGH idea of concentration charts (I say rough because these are not an official product in the same sense as the plots above), go back to the VAAC homepage (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/index.html) and click on "London VAAC NWP Volcanic Ash Concentration Charts: Latest charts" (there's a disclaimer at the top). Scroll down, you'll see the time and date stamp in bold above each chart for different flight levels. Each chart that has a red and possibly black area indicates ash concentration for that time and level. Black areas are bad: these are where ash exceeds the plane engine manufacturer tolerence level.

To read about what the volcano is doing, I go to the Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884. They update this at least daily. An eruption plume of 4-5km or higher (13,000 - 16, 400 ft) indicates that it's still quite active.

So there we have it for this "Special". If you have any questions about this, let me know and as with tropical storms, I'll make up an answer for you or find someone who knows about these things. ;-)

Stay tuned... if I have time I'll be doing another "special" before the season really begins on June 1. And then I'll have a nap. ;-)

Toodle Pip!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding volcanic eruptions in Iceland - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision (o.k.... so this disclaimer I cut and paste from the old one, so if you are in Iceland this bit might apply), please heed your local emergency management announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. Hee hee.
-------------------------------------------

November 30: Final Day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Here we are again my friends, at the culmination of another Atlantic
Hurricane season. And you are still reading this blog?!? Goodness me, you
must be bored. Well of course you are bored! For most people living in
known hurricane-prone areas it was a relatively quiet season. For example,
the Florida peninsula (where I used to live) did not get hit by a
hurricane this year, which I believe is the fourth year in a row
(Klotzbach/Gray report). On the other hand, the British Isles (where I now
live), that well-known area in the hurricane zone (!!!), got hit by a
number of storms in some form or another. Although no-one really noticed
over here as that is our normal weather. And I still can't believe the
first storm to be named formed the VERY DAY I left Florida! I'll be having
words with Mother Nature about this season when she's sobered up and
stopped laughing her head off. Huh. ;-)

To sum up the 2009 season: we had 9 named storms, of which 3 were
hurricanes, 2 major (cat 3 or higher). The average is 11 named storms, 6
hurricanes, 3 major. A below-average year methinks. The impacts from El
Nino really kicked in around August/September...which strangely enough is
about when the storms really kicked in too. Hmmm. El Nino did play a role,
but there were other factors (in my humble, but not reticent, opinion),
such as cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

I think the NHC did a good job overall, although they were a 'little' slow
(!) in some places. But they do so like to write their updates in CAPITAL
letters, which must take oodles of time! They are proposing "improvements"
to the NHC Public Advisory because "Customer feedback suggests that there
is a need for a more user-friendly format...". You can see and comment on
the proposed changes if you wish by going to this website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback_tcp.shtml.

Interestingly, this year I have not seen any initial forecasts for the
2010 season. NOAA says their first seasonal outlook will be released in
May 2010. Last year they already had their initial estimates out for the
2009 season at this point - 14-18 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Oops.
Maybe the silence is prudent. There is a lot more to this clever delay
than meets the casual eye, but this entry is long enough so that can wait
for a rainy day (next year). If someone throws out numbers tomorrow, I'll
send out a quick update.

As I wrap up another year of my high-quality, witty, intelligent, FREE
entertainment for you ;-), I'd like to give my annual thanks to those who
made this possible. My fabulous technical support - the computing guys at
CMS/USF in Florida for the listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining
the blog and making it look pretty! You guys are awesome. :-) This
'international' effort kinda worked!! Thanks also to all of you who have
been reading this drivel, and for sending me comments -they kept me amused
and out of trouble (well, I suppose 'trouble' is such a relative concept
isn't it? ;-)). Finally, thanks to my friends - old & new - on both sides
of the Atlantic, family, and colleagues for their valiant attempts to keep
me sane. Ha ha... keep trying ;-)

Having got used to that Florida climate, I find it rather cold over here.
I'm sitting next to a warm radiator as I type this, so I think it's time
for me to hibernate now. Until the 1st of June, 2010 (unless something
wakes me up early)... Happy holidays and wishing you all a safe and
wonderful New Year! Laugh & be merry!

That's all for this decade folks.

TOODLE PIP ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at: jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

----
Disclaimer: yeah... due to a computing glitch here I ended up having fun
with these this year. I'll be better behaved next year... Maybe ;-)
-----

Extratropical Storm Ida: November 10 Update A

Ida made landfall earlier today as a weak Tropical Storm with winds of
about 50 mph, and very little convection. She then merged with that front,
and is now an extratropical system. This is my last entry on this system.

In response to a question I had asking what extratropical systems were, I
cut and paste this from an entry I wrote over two year ago. Boy was I
clever back then! What happened? (no need to answer that) ;-)

---------------
A quick overview of storm systems- What is the difference between an
extratropical storm, a tropical storm, and a subtropical storm?

An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle
suprise!) and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm
air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold
air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because
warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also
called low pressure systems. They are usually associated with fronts which
are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front)
or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air
masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently
in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at
naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for
these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only
and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air.
As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder
altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and
latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close
to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although
'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too
far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the
winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less
than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both
extratropical and tropical systems. For example, imagine an extratropical
storm moving over warmer water. Now the storm begins to get some energy
from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the
surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold
to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a
tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34
knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a
subtropical depression.

It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the
hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more
named storms in the past few years.
---------------------------

That's all for now folks!
Toodle pip until the next time.

J.

Updates archived at: jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: You all know this already. My views, heed those who know, yada
yada yada...

TS Ida: November 9 Update A

Ida behaved pretty much as I expected. Good girl! After my entry yesterday
she was officially upgraded to a cat 2, and today as she crossed the Gulf
she rapidly deteriorated to a strong Tropical Storm, with winds currently
at 70mph. She will become a weaker TS before landfall overnight tonight.
Tomorrow she'll be 'absorbed' by the front after landfall, which is really
when she'll become extratropical. Someone asked about extratropical
storms. I'll write about those tomorrow. She's at about 28.6N, 88.5W,
moving N at a speedy 18mph. Central pressure 991mb & rising. I know you'll
be surprised, but I finally agree with the NHC for the remainder of the
forecast for this system! They finally caught up. ;-)

It's wet & windy in a number of states, but the other thing to look out
for is storm surge for those along the coast. You can go to
tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov for realtime water level information. They have
listed some relevant places along the left, and others can be accessed by
the 'state map' tab, also on the left near the bottom. Currently St. Pete,
FL, is 1.5 ft above normal; Pensacola, FL, is 2ft above; Dauphin Island &
Mobile State Docks, AL, are 2ft above; Gulfport Harbor, MS, is 3ft above;
Grand Isle, LA, is 2ft and rising, and New Canal Station, LA, is 2.5ft
above.

Someone also asked me what sort of weather to expect in the Tampa region.
Here's a website you can check out for weather information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw (also
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/Graphicast.php). Thanks to my friend in the
NWS for providing those.

Fortunately it looks like everyone who contacted me regarding travel plans
in/out & around the Gulf will, indeed, be ok... So have fun!! Here it's a
balmy 4 deg C (39 F) outside. Gloves & hat time I think.

Toodles till tomorrow!
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: Please pay heed to your local Emergency Managers, the NWS, and
the NHC as they have the most up-to-date information. I only write what
I'm thinking and sometimes after a glass of wine. These are not the views
of any organization I represent.

Hurricane Ida: November 8 Update A

Well there's a couple of bits of good news for you all in this entry.
First, Ida's circulation (technically the vorticity) is beginning to
diminish. Yesterday, when I said she was a hurricane, the vorticity was
strong throughout almost the entire troposphere (lowest ~10-15km of our
atmosphere). Today it looks like the highest levels have lost it, which is
an indication that she won't intensify much further. The second piece of
good news is that although I tried, I couldn't think of any 'original'
jokes today so you are spared that. ;-)

Ida was officially (finally) named a hurricane late last night. Again, a
number of hours after I think she became one. She's got winds of 90mph at
the moment, making her a strong cat 1 (range: 74-95 mph). I think she
might be a weak cat 2 actually (range: 96-110mph). Currently centered at
about 21.2 N, 86 W, she's moving NW at 10mph. Central pressure 983mb.

I know the forecast now has her as a hurricane until Tuesday, when she
reaches the northern Gulf coast. But I'm not convinced that she will be a
hurricane by the time she gets up there. There are a number of reasons I
think this, apart from the circulation issue. The wind shear is stronger
in the Gulf, which will take it's toll. Although the surface water temps
are high enough in the southern Gulf, they begin to cool off in the
northern Gulf. Also, the deeper warm water that she has just crossed in
the Caribbean does not extend into the Gulf as much as it has done in
previous years (the Loop Current). The only factor I see that will keep
her as a hurricane in the northern Gulf is the fast speed she's forecast
to move at. Having said all this, even if she does decrease in intensity,
the interaction with the front will create some wet & windy conditions
around the Gulf. It will be like a normal day in Scotland ;-).

Of course, please ignore me and listen to your Emergency Managers & NWS &
NHC. I know those of you who are in the watch zones will be prepared. Drop
me a line if you have any questions.

Ciao for now,
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions only and not those of any organization I
represent. I wrote the other half of this in the main text above.

TS Ida: November 7 Update B

I am pretty sure it should be Hurricane Ida by now, but the cautious NHC
are still calling her a tropical storm. Wind speeds are 'officially' 70
mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 990mb. I think Ida has been a
hurricane for a few hours. The next NHC advisory should reflect this. At
least they agree with me that the wind shear in the Caribbean isn't enough
to stop this storm from developing.

She's currently somewhere around 18.9N, 84.3W. She's been moving more
northward than they expected, bringing her ever closer to Cuba. But she
has taken a small NNW turn in the last few hours, so hopefully she'll only
clip Cuba. She's officially moving N at 10mph.

The forecast in the Gulf is still tricky. I know a number of you are
travelling now and over the next few days. I haven't had a chance to reply
to you all, but I'll get to it soon. Other than the cruise heading into
the Gulf from Tampa (don't worry! I'll be in touch tomorrow), I think
everyone else should be more-or-less ok. It really is tricky because of
the front coming through, and the higher wind shear in the Gulf. I'm
thinking that she will weaken once she's in the Gulf. I'll try and reply
to you individually as things become clearer (I bet they'll be crystal
clear this time next week ;-)).

That's all for today.
Toodle pip!
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: It's past my bedtime here so just read the one I wrote with
the previous entry. ;-)

TS Ida: November 7 Update A

Q: What's this storm going to do?
A: I daknow!

Hee hee. I spent ALL day thinking of that one. OK, I won't give up my day
job yet then. ;-)

Ida's is developing quite nicely, as expected given the water she is
travelling over. The latest advisory has her at 17.9N, 84.1W, moving N at
9mph. Central pressure 997 mb, wind speeds 60mph (TS range: 39-73 mph).

The forecast keeps her as a tropical storm, but I think she might reach
hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The circulation has improved in the
higher levels of the troposphere. In fact, I think 60 mph might be a
little on the low side already. Cloud tops are very cold now, which
indicates strong convection.

She's also moving more northward than the current track, which will bring
her closer to Cuba. But all the models seem to be in good agreement that
she will make a north-westward turn towards Yucatan. The models have
improved over the past few years, and are pretty good for the 24 hour
forecast, so I will go with this as I don't have better information.
Having said that, she's actually remained on a more northward track than
expected, so maybe they will shift in their next model run.

There is some wind shear in the northern Caribbean, and a lot more in the
Gulf. But the Caribbean shear may be too weak and may not be enough to
hinder her development after a certain point. Conversely, the shear in the
Gulf might be enough to make her a lovely little blobette again.

So to sum up: things are still uncertain. The first thing to watch for is
that NW turn in the track. I might send out another update today! First
time in ages I've done two. But she's so interesting that she's worth it.

Later gators (and 'noles and bulls and any others out there... ;-)),
J.

Updates archived on jyotikastorms@blogspot.com. (I think :-)).

DISCLAIMER: These are just my views. Well, a fraction of them. I do have
views on other things as well you know. If a storm is looming, please pay
attention to your emergency managers, weather service and the NHC.

TD Ida: November 6 Update A

Oh dear, what a palava! I can just see some of you rolling your eyes when
you see the latest track and the apparent sharp right turn Ida is forecast
to make in the Gulf in five days, directly towards Tampa Bay. The forecast
has, indeed, become all sorts of complicated since yesterday.

First though: she's just emerged into the Caribbean again, north of
Honduras, and is heading N at about 8 mph. She's at 15.7N, 83.9 W, central
pressure 1007 mb, wind speed 35mph. Due to minor technical difficulties, I
can't actually access the data or satellite images. But I can tell you
what to expect.

As she continues north, she'll be over water temperatures greater than 30
deg C. V. Warm!! Not only that, but the warm water is very deep there -
amongst the deepest warm water in the western Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf
region. This means she has a really good energy source because she's
churning up more warm water. The other factor in favor of development is
that the circulation remains strong over most of the troposphere. So it is
likely she will get stronger once she clears land - definitely back to TS
at least (in agreement with the NHC). Working against this is the wind
shear, which will pick up as she moves northwards. The second factor
against too much development is how much she will interact with land. A
battle will ensue over how strong little Ida will become.

The reason the forecast is a bit wonky in the Gulf is because in addition
to the uncertain intensity factors above, there is another front (trough)
that will move southwards at around the same time as she moves northwards.
It's a question of where the two meet, which is difficult to forecast.

Ida's a tricky one! Not what you want to hear I know. It's unlikely she'll
be a major storm *if* she gets to Florida. It also looks unlikely that
she'll head to the northern Gulf at the moment, but that depends on how
far south that front gets. For now you know the drill. It never hurts to
be prepared: stock up on ice cream, wine, sun screen etc. ;-) Drop me a
line if you have any questions.

As famously said in 'Terminator' by that bloke, "I'll be back". (tomorrow
sans technical difficulties).
J.

DISCLAIMER: the views expressed today were so waffly that I don't think
anyone I represent (myself included) could possibly claim them! Pay
attention to your local emergency manager

TS Ida: November 5 Update A

I'm going to go easy on the NHC today because they do, after all, have a
tough job. Of course, if I believed Ida was still a hurricane by the time
they called it earlier today, then I'm pretty sure aliens made crop
circles.

Ida, from the data I saw, was a hurricane in the early hours of this
morning (EST). By the time she made landfall in Nicaragua, she had already
lost a lot of convection and would have been a strong TS. I think the call
was about 7-8 hours too late. Rather like the belated upgrade to TS status
yesterday - which officially jumped from a 35 mph TD to a strong TS with
60 mph winds. Maybe their timing is sluggish because they've not had much
practice lately. Anyway, I agree with them now, she's back to being a TS.

She's been dumping rain on Nicaragua for over 24 hours (not good).
Official wind speed is 60 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). I think she's weaker
than that. Central pressure 990 mb. She's at about 13.3N, 83.7W, and is
moving NNW at a 3mph crawl. The good news is that the longer she remains
over land, the weaker she gets, which means that as she re-emerges into
the Caribbean (north of her current location), she may not reintensify to
TS status. A slow/stalled storm has other problems when it comes to
forecasting. The pressure fields around it change, which means the track
becomes tricky. At the moment I'd say she would curve around towards Cuba
instead of heading into the Gulf because of interaction with a front that
is moving southwards (currently over mid-FL). It depends on timing and
when she picks up some speed (motion, not the drug! ;) ).

That's all for today folks. Another update tomorrow, in which I'll
continue to be super-nice to the NHC. ;)

Ciao,
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions, not those of any organization I
represent. If you disagree with them, we can debate it over a cup of tea
(PG Tips). ;) If a storm is approaching, please pay attention to your
local emergency managers, weather service, and of course, the NHC.

Caribbean Blobette: November 4 Update A

Hey! Thought it was over? Think again. The '09 hurricane season, in true
Monty Python style, is running around saying "I'm not dead yet!" ;)

A blobette has been brewing in the western Caribbean over the past two
days, and today she made a move. Although still officially a Tropical
Depression (#11), I am pretty sure she reached Tropical Storm status about
7 or so hours ago. There's a plane investigating the system now because
they can provide accurate data... and there's only so many card games to
play and crossword puzzles one can do before one gets bored. ;) The next
name is Ida.

She's at around 11.8N, 82.3W, moving WNW at about 7mph. Landfall is
expected to be Nicaragua on Friday morning. I don't have the right data to
make a call on track, so I'll go with this official one. Seems reasonable
to me.

Winds are officially 35 mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Although not very windy,
there is a lot of rain in this system so the real danger will be potential
flooding/landslides. Water temperatures exceed 29 deg C, and the
circulation is strong over the lower half of the troposphere (which is the
lowest layer of our atmosphere).

It looks like there's a chance that wind shear will pick up a bit by
tomorrow and the system is interacting with land. So despite the warm sea
temperatures, it may not develop too much.

As we are approaching the end of the season (Nov 30), we generally see
more storms develop in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region as opposed to
Atlantic storms. There's nothing unusual about the location.

I'll send out another update tomorrow. Wow... I can't believe it. A storm
that's NOT heading for me this season. We might get sun! Ok... I know,
that last part is a bit of a stretch. ;)

Toodle Pip :)
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are my views, not those of any organization I represent.
If a storm is approaching, please pay attention to your local emergency
managers and weather service and NHC, as they have the most up-to-date
information! Etc etc.

TD Henri: October 8 Update A

Henri isn't looking so hot. A combination of wind shear and dry air took
their toll. He still has decent circulation, but sans (another French word
:)) much convection. This is my last entry on Henri unless he does
something naughty. :)

Au revoir jusqu'a la prochaine fois.
J.

Disclaimer: It's not my fault if the French doesn't mean what I think it
means. ;)

TS Henri and another Atlantic Blobette: October 7 Update A

TS Henri. The blob I said we should keep an eye on a couple of days ago
has indeed developed and became a TS late yesterday. He's currently
heading westward(ish) at about 15 mph. Because of wind shear the center is
west of the convection, which has restricted his growth. If you look at a
satellite image you can easily see it swirling away. For example, go to
the NHC website (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and click on the word 'satellite' on
the left panel. Scroll down until you find 'Atlantic Floater 1'. No, this
is not referring to a dead fish in the Atlantic ;). Under that you should
see 'Henri'. The 'floater' satellite imagery is basically only used to
provide close-ups of a storm when there is one. To see a still picture of
Henri, click on the word 'Image' next to visible. If you want to see a
movie (provide your own popcorn :)), then click on 'java' in the same
line. I prefer the movie version myself, it just takes a little longer to
download.

He's currently at about 19N, 58.3W. Wind speed is 45mph, making him a weak
system (TS range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is only 1007 mb.

Mais (that's 'but' in French cos Henri is French :)), the convection is
quite strong for such a small storm. It is all to the east of the center,
and has died down a bit in the last few hours. Mais (I do know other words
in French you know), the cloud tops were quite cold earlier, which means
deep convection. It's a good thing there has been some shear otherwise
Henri would have been bigger! He's over water with temps over 29 deg C.
And circulation is still pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere.

The forecast is for him to downgrade to a low by tomorrow evening because
of persistent strong wind shear. I'm a little more cautious about this,
because when I looked a couple of hours ago, the wind shear looked like it
was diminishing. Hopefully it'll be enough to keep him at bay.

There's a large blobette just southeast of Henri. Lots of clouds, but not
a lot of circulation, so I won't write more on the blobette unless it gets
organized.

It rained here all day today. That's about all we got from Grace and the
front she was part of. I did find my Wellington boots - thank you all for
your comments there. Hee hee.

I'll be back with hopefully a wrap-up on Henri tomorrow.
A bientot mes amis! :)
J.

Disclaimer: These are not my opinions. Er, no, that doesn't sound right.
Oh yes, these are just my opinions and not those of any organization I
represent. That's better. :)

TS Grace & Atlantic Blob: October 5 update A

From the NHC less than 24 hours ago: "TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC."

Hey, I live on the far northeastern edge of the Atlantic!

From the NHC in their last advisory: "GRACE RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST..."

Hey, I'm NNE of her current location!

The suprise to me is no longer that a tropical storm is heading this way,
but that this was even classified as one! It formed outside the tropics,
over water with temperatures of only about 21 deg C - you need
temperatures of 26.5 deg C for a tropical storm. It does have circulation,
but at no point has that been isolated from a line of higher vorticity
(circulation)... meaning that this system is really part of a front!! The
NHC say she'll be absorbed by a front in a few hours (which is heading
this way). At the most I think this should have been a Subtropical Storm!
Grr!

She's currently at about 45.4N, 16.4W (on a part of the map that you won't
recognize, as CM wrote and told me earlier ;)). Central pressure is
estimated to be 990mb, wind speeds estimated to be 65mph. She's zooming
NNE at 31mph.

She'll be downgraded tomorrow, so I'm not going to bother writing another
entry unless there's some really unusual weather here. Ha ha ha.

Atlantic Blob: this poor fella has been trying to get organized for a
couple of days. The circulation is good throughout the tropopause (lowest
section of our atmosphere), but the convection needs some work. It's worth
keeping an eye on this for the next few days, esp if you are in the VIs.
It's currently at about 13N, 45W. If anything looks like developing, I'll
write a note. Next name is Henri.

Now, where did I put my Wellington boots? ;)
Ciao for now,
J.

Disclaimer: The comments here are mine and do not represent the views of
any organization I represent. There's a much better disclaimer in the blog
archives. :)

Atlantic blobette: September 27 Update A

Wind shear and dry air took their toll on the tropical depression, and
it's now just a...er... blobette again. Some things do go away if you
ignore them I guess. ;) There's still some circulation and convection, so
I'll keep an eye on it, but don't anticipate much. This is my last entry
on this system. Back to napping for now.

Ciao,
J.

Disclaimer: see previous update.

Atlantic Blobette: September 25 Update A

Ha ha ha... Did you really think you'd not be hearing from me again this
season? Well, better luck some other year. This year you can blame it on
El Nino. Which, coincidentally, I hear is (yet again) apparently solely
responsible for this 'quiet' season (according to my sources in the US).
Sigh. Before we even knew we were going into an El Nino (in the Pacific)
the signs were set up for a weaker season: for example, Atlantic water
temps were cool as I said at the beginning of June. There is also a lot
less water vapor in the air over the Atlantic (partly due to that Saharan
Air Layer also mentioned in an earlier entry), and there are a number of
other things afoot (and even aloft :)). The biggest influence on storms
over the Atlantic is, surprisingly, what's going on in/over the Atlantic!
What an amazing concept!! I'm a genius aren't I? I should be given an
award. ;) I'm not saying that El Nino has no impact, it's just not the
only one, and not the biggest. (And sarcasm aside... of course I'm a
genius ;)).

So, back to the Atlantic. There's a little blobette west of the Cape Verde
Islands. It's been struggling to get a grip for the past day, but
circulation isn't very strong. Convective activity has been waxing and
waning all day. I more-or-less agree with the NHC on this one. It is a
tropical depression (8th of the season), and is teetering on the edge of
being a Tropical Storm. But it is under reasonable wind shear given it's
size, and more importantly, has a lot of dry air around it, which will
inhibit it. The NHC site says something about how it'll also move over
cooler waters which will keep it down. I don't agree with that bit. It's
over temps of 28 deg C, moving over 27 deg C. Brr, yes cold indeed. Huh.
It's colder than that here when the sun is in full bloom. That water is
warm enough to sustain a storm. Should this storm manage to get a bit more
organized, the next name is 'Grace'. It's currently at about 15.4N, 31.5W,
moving NW at 14mph. Wind speeds of 35 mph, central pressure is 1008mb.

I'll try and check in over the weekend but if I don't manage to sober up,
not to worry as it'll stay in the Atlantic for now. ;)

Toodle pop,
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are just my opinions and thoughts, and not those of any
organization I represent. That should be obvious as organizations are not
generally prone to chit chat like this. If a storm is looming, please pay
attention to the NHC, weather service and your emergency managers because
they have the most up-to-date information.

Blob Fred: September 13 Update A

I was too busy having cups of tea with cucumber sandwiches to write an
update yesterday, but Fred declined and is now a blob again. There's still
a fair bit of convection, but circulation is now really only in the lowest
part of the troposphere. I'll check in on him, but don't expect much. So
this is my last entry on this system.

And the answer to the Famous Fred was Fred Allen. Thanks to LS for sending
me the details. Fred Allen wrote that about Boston in a letter to Groucho
Marx in 1953.

Mid-September... this week is the statistical peak of the Season.

That's all for now folks.
Cheerio,
J.

No Disclaimer Today. :)

TS Fred: September 11 Update A

As expected, Fred has been detiorating all day and was just officially
downgraded to a TS with winds of 70mph, estimated central pressure 987mb.
I think that was his status a few hours ago, and he's weaker than that
now. Although sea surface temperatures are still 27-28 deg C (ideally we
need at least 26.5 deg C or warmer to sustain a storm), the wind shear
took it's toll. It's difficult to see his center from satellite images
(which is why I think he's weaker). Officially the center is at 18.1N,
34.6W, and he's wandering NE-ward at a whopping 2mph. Obviously that's
just an estimate by the NHC. I think they are guestimating his center and
speed, because I took their 11am location and speed and did a quick
quackulation (like a calculation, but you make duck noises as you do it
;)) and the 5pm numbers don't match. But it's just academic really, as he
won't be a storm for very long.

A lot of you got the answer to yesterdays question: Freddie Mercury. How
did we survive without google? ;) (although some of you know some of these
sans help which impresses me as I can't even recall jokes I've heard
multiple times).

Famous Fred quote of the day: "I have just returned from Boston; it is the
only sane thing to do if you find yourself up there." Hee hee hee. Which
Fred?

Have a lovely Friday evening!
Toodles,
J.

Disclaimer: see previous entry. One day I'll follow my own advice and then
re-write it here.

Hurricane Fred: September 10 Update A

Well apparently there are more Scooby Doo fans out there than Fred
Astaire! Yes, yesterdays Famous Fred quote was from Fred in Scooby Doo,
Fred Jones (thanks D.P. for telling me his surname... saved me having to
look it up). :) Todays quote is at the end of this update.

Hurricane Fred is a Cat 1 now, with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph)
and central pressure of 975mb. He's currently at 17.3N, 35.1W, casually
sauntering northwards at 5mph. The track forecast has him turning WNW in a
couple of days. I don't have enough data, so I'll go along with this. He
has slowed down, and looks like he might slow down even further in the
next few hours. As I have mentioned before, things become trickier to
forecast when storms slow down or stall because conditions around them can
still change. But as expected, he is now in greater wind shear from the
southwest and is looking very lopsided, with convection mainly in the
northeast quadrant. He may not even survive in such conditions.

<science alert> why would a storm stall? This goes back to the large scale
atmospheric pressure fields I was waffling on about a couple of days ago.
Imagine the storm is a ball. If the path ahead of it is low pressure (in
meteorological jargon you may hear "trough" or other such words), it's
like a downhill gradient and the ball will happily keep on rolling. But if
the path in front of it has high pressure, it's like an uphill gradient.
If it is 'uphill', the ball will slow down, or maybe move in a different
direction until it finds an easier path. But if it is in a 'dip',
surrounded by high pressure, then it's difficult for the storm to move in
any direction, so it will stop until the pressure fields around it change.
Of course, as pressure fields change, the forecast track will change even
though the storm may not have moved far. So not only do forecasters need
to predict the track of the storm, but they need to predict the entire
surrounding pressure field and how it will change before the storm moves
again. That's where the computer models really kick in. <end of science
alert>.

Famous Fred quote of the day: "I always knew I was a star, and now the
rest of the world seems to agree with me." Which Fred? :)

Have fun!
Tally ho,
J.

Disclaimer: read previous entries.

Hurricane Fred: 9/9/09 Update A

Fred became a major hurricane (cat 3) this morning, with winds of 120mph
(cat 3 range: 111-130mph), but has decreased in intensity since then.
Although the NHC's 5pm advisory still had him as a cat 3 with winds of
115mph, I think he's a cat 2 at the moment (cat 2 range: 96-110 mph)
because his eye is not very clear anymore, and the convection is a bit
skewed. His western side is a little weaker than the east, because he's
pulling in (entraining) dry air from the north and west. Also, his
northern side is beginning to move into an area of stronger wind shear.

He's currently centered around 14.8N, 33.3W, with central pressure of
960mb. The NHC had an interesting tidbit in their write up earlier
today...according to their records this is the strongest storm to have
formed so far south and east. There are a few caveats you should keep in
mind if you hear this: 1. Hurricane records only began in 1851; (2) a
storm like this would probably not have been detected before the 1970s,
when satellite observations kicked in and there are more, and different
types of satellite data available now which allow for greater accuracy
(hopefully!!); and, (3) techniques to estimate the winds and pressure of a
storm from afar have changed a bit over the years.

He's moving NW at 13 mph. I'm going to rely on the models and NHC for
track for the next 24 hours because the models are in pretty good
agreement at the moment and unless you are a mid-Atlantic jellyfish
<insert creature of choice>, I don't think small variations in track
forecast will matter. :)

Wind shear increases at about 18N, although sea surface temperatures will
still be over 27 deg C at that latitude. I agree with the NHC that the
shear will take it's toll and reduce intensity. But they claim a secondary
effect will be the reduced sea surface temperatures, whereas to me a more
likely secondary effect will be the surrounding dry air.

Famous Fred quote of the day: "Let's split up gang." Which Fred? :)

Night night,
J.

Disclaimer: Insert from previous entries.