[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Gabrielle: September 8, Update A

I got out of bed this morning for this "storm"??

Here's another very pathetic looking storm, which by some definitions of a
Tropical Storm (or Subtropical Storm) should not yet be named. Yes, there
are winds in a closed circulation that exceed 39mph (there's been a closed
circulation with decent winds in this system for at least 2 days) - the
winds are about 45 mph, so it's a very weak storm (TS winds: 39mph-73mph).
BUT there is very little convection, and what there is is all to the
north. One definition of Tropical Storm that I read says: "Convection
usually concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into
distinct bands."

Convection concentrated near the center? I suppose it depends on your
defnition of 'near'. And if there are organized distinct bands of rainfall
in Gabrielle at the moment, then I need a new job.

O.k. Saturday morning rant over :) We will accept this as the
third-pathetic-named-storm-of-the-season-which-would-not-have-been-named-a-few-years-ago.
Bringing our total number of named storms up to 7.

Sub-tropical Storm Gabrielle is moving at a slow 12 mph in a
west-northwestward direction. The reason she is slower than some of the
other storms this year is because she is surrounded by higher pressure, so
it's a bit of an uphill battle. There is a good chance that she will slow
down even more. Interestingly, the pressure in her 'center' is at
1011mb...which is not very low at all (normal range of pressure on average
over Florida during the year varies from about 1013mb to 1020mb).

I am not sure yet that she will make landfall - it will depend on the
pressure and also on how much she slows down. If she does make landfall,
just south of Cape Hatteras/Cape Hatteras is the most likely area - which
is in agreeement with the NHC. But, there's a good chance that she will
just barely clip those areas with her "outer rain bands" and stay mostly
in the Atlantic.

She is over warm waters of 28-29 deg C, but as she gets closer the land
that will increase to 29-30 degs C. Also, she is heading into an area of
reduced wind shear closer to land. So, maybe she will become a bit better
organized later (which is when I will consider her a proper storm). Of
course, if she slows down and hangs out over the deep warm waters of the
Gulf Stream (she's not quite there yet) then she will improve in
intensity.

Despite my cavalier attitude towards this system, of course for those of
you in North Carolina be prepared for some breezy weather with possible
rain/thunder/lightning just in case. I'm sure you are anyway. :)

I'll send another update later.

Ciao for now,
J.
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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