The storm that is in the Gulf off the northern Texas coast just got
upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto (not wanting to be a storm with no
name, he zipped through the Tropical Depression phase in ~three hours -
after I sent out the last update). He is interacting with land, and
landfall will be overnight in northern Texas or near the TX/LA border -
it's not very easy to pinpoint the center of circulation. He is moving
northwards and will continue in that general direction because he is on
the western edge of a high pressure system (which will be mentioned
again in the TD#8 discussion).
He's about 70 miles south-southwest of Galveston and is moving north at
6mph. He is over very warm water with sea surface temperatures greater
than 30 deg C. Max. winds are near 45 mph (39kt; TS: 39-73mph, 34-63kt)
so he is a weak system but he does have a lot of moisture, so this will
be mostly a rain event for TX,LA, and possibly states farther inland.
He's in some moderate wind shear, and is also interacting with land, so
there is not much opportunity for him to get much bigger.
A plane will be in the system shortly, so I will send out another update
after the NHC has issued it's 5pm (eastern time) advisory.
And because this is mid-September there's another system swirling away
out there in the Atlantic.
Tropical Depression 8:
This system is also moving along the edge of that high pressure system I
mentioned above. I used this analogy last year, but as I can barely
remember what I said last week, who will remember this from then? :)
Imagine the high pressure in the Atlantic as a clock face - a Dali clock
which is all distorted but still has a 12, 3, 6, and 9. These storms all
move in a clockwise direction around this distorted clock. The trick is
that the clock face (high pressure) never stays still and the edges are
constantly moving as well, so forecasting a storm track is really all
about how the pressure patterns change.
At the moment TD#8 is on the southern side at around 6 and heading
westward(ish), and TS Humberto is at around 9 and heading northward.
TD#8 will continue in a general westward (clockwise) direction around
this high until it can turn north-westward or until it hits land. H.
Dean and H. Felix both hit land before turning because the high extended
quite far south-westward. It is not as robust now, however at the moment
it looks like the general westward direction will continue for the next
few days. The models all have it staying in the Atlantic but to me it
looks like it will enter the Caribbean in about ~4 to 5 days. I'll know
more tomorrow when I get the latest pressure maps.
It is about to enter a region of low wind shear and the temperatures are
at about 27 degs C (enough to sustain a system). The center of
circulation is east of the convection, which is also helping to keep
this system down (in intensity).
More later....
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
_______________________________________________
Jyo_Hurricane mailing list
Jyo_Hurricane@marine.usf.edu
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment