Yesterday we were looking at an exposed center of circulation and
convection in the north-west quadrant. The convection was in that quadrant
because that was the part that was over the warmest waters and the Gulf
Stream. Last night, the center of circulation moved a bit more westward,
bringing it in line with the area of convection, and she truely became a
tropical storm.
Overnight it looks like she oscillated in intensity - weakened, and is now
strengthening again. The main part of the storm is still sitting just
off-shore and parts of NC have, so far, only had a few small patches of
bad weather. A small wobble in the path will be enough to bring her
on-shore versus just clipping the NC coast.
She is moving very slowly (around 9-10mph) in a north-northwestward
direction, over the Gulf Stream. The longer she stays over the Gulf
Stream, the more intense and bigger in size she can get. There is some
wind shear, so that should help keep the intensity down but there's a
chance she will become a mid-to-strong TS before she moves off into the
Atlantic if she doesn't hurry up and move forward soon.
Max. sustained winds are now about 50mph (TS: 39-73mph), making her a
weak-to-mid TS. They will probably increase further because of the warm
water beneath the center. The actual center of circulation is harder for
me to see from the satellite images today, but according to the hurricane
planes it is at 34.2N, 76.4W (30 miles south-southeast of Cape Lookout).
We'll obviously know more in a few hours. More later...
J.
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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