Welcome to the 11th named storm of the season - this is now officially
an 'average' season with 11 named storms, and so far a below-average
season as far as hurricanes go (average number of hurricanes = 6, so
they need to make up another 3 to reach that goal).
As you all know by now, the BIG BLOB from yesterday got upgraded from an
invest to a tropical depression to a tropical storm *really* quickly. No
surprise there (unless you weren't reading my blog, in which case...
Surprise!!!). She has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the
troposphere and heavy convection covering many hundreds of miles.
She is in the central Atlantic, at about 11N, 39W heading in a
west-northwestward direction at 15 mph. The forecast track still keeps
this storm away from land, and curves it northward into the Atlantic. If
I were on the islands though, I would still be prepared for some stormy
weather in a few days (as well as today). The high pressure over the
Atlantic extends into the Caribbean, which suggests a more westward
track for the next 24 hours, in agreement with the NHC track for that
time. At the moment I don't know if the low that the models are
predicting will erode this high (beginning tomorrow) and cause the
system to move northward, but she is at least 4-5 days away from the
Caribbean and my time machine is in the shop at the moment so I can't
see what will happen that far ahead. We'll have a much better idea of
things this time tomorrow as that high is supposed to begin eroding and
the forecast track shows a more northwestward movement instead of
west-northwest.
She's a weak TS with winds of about 40mph (35kt) - barely a TS (34-63
kt, 39-73mph). Although this is the same wind speed as "Jerry" (cough
cough... sorry, something got stuck in my throat), this storm has far
more heavy convection and, unlike Jerry, she will get stronger. She is
over waters of 28 deg C and about to enter waters of 29 deg C (parts of
her are already over these slightly warmer waters). On the north side of
the storm there is some westerly wind shear (westerly meaning winds from
the west). The forecast says that she will barely be a cat 1 hurricane
in 5 days because of anticipated wind shear and upper atmospheric
conditions that prevent her from growing. Doesn't that sound nice?
The Blobettes:
There's a struggling blobette still partying in the Lesser Antilles and
heading towards the VIs. It has some low-level circulation, and some
deep convection. Enjoy the much-needed rain!
There's another struggling blobette just hanging out in the western Gulf
of Mexico with the fish. This one hasn't moved much because it is stuck
against a high pressure system to the north and west, so it is difficult
to see where it will move when it does get going but Texas might be
getting some rain again soon. There is some low-level circulation and
some associated convection - the rainfall in LA is associated with this.
There's a mass of convection off southern Florida and in the Bahamas. No
circulation to speak of, just squally weather.
TS Jerry. I know I said that yesterday was my last entry on this system,
but the NHC are just writing things I can't resist commenting on. Their
final entry was last night (after mine) and they upgraded the system
from a Tropical Depression to a TS again! It makes no sense. It was
11pm so maybe they were tired. This is what they wrote:
"CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY. AS JERRY ACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...HENCE THE APPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM."
Umm... I don't see how "no longer a tropical cyclone" can be upgraded to
a "tropical storm"? Answers on a postcard please.
Right, that *really* is my final entry on Jerry (until the next one ;) ).
And enough picking on the NHC (for now). I agree to disagree on this
particular storm. Generally, I think they do a good (and difficult) job.
I'll be back.
J.
Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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