[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 8, Update B

I was waiting to see what the NHC would say in their 5pm advisory before
sending out another update. They have changed ST Gabrielle's status from a
STS to a Tropical Storm. But she is weaker - they downgraded the max.
sustained winds to 40mph (TS: 39-73mph), so she is just barely a TS. In
case you didn't get this from my morning entry, I am not at all suprised
at her official weakened status. :)

I would have gone a step further and just downgraded her to a Tropical
Depression. Their reasoning is that there is a small chance she will get a
bit stronger (from barely a TS to a weak TS) this evening, so they didn't
want to downgrade her completely. I won't argue with that reasoning.

Since this morning's email, Gabrielle has steadily been declining and has
lost a large portion of what little convection she did have, making her
even less of a storm. The northern "rain band" pretty much disintigrated
and is just cloudy now. You can clearly see the center by the wispy
looking clouds that are circling it in satellite images e.g.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis.jpg
There is still some convection in the northwest quadrant of the system,
the rest is all clouds and a windy day at sea. However, the convection in
the northwest quadrant will probably reach coastal areas of NC once the
storm moves a bit farther north.

She did slow down and is now moving forward at 8mph.

Also, after I sent the last message, they have been shifting the track
away from the coast a bit. Again, I agree with this shift. She is
currently heading northwestward.

By staying away from the coast, it means that she will be moving over
cooler waters sooner - she is already in slightly cooler waters of 27-28
degs C. There is also a chance for less interaction with the Gulf Stream
depending on her path. On top of that, the wind shear will be better than
expected. All these will keep this system down.

A number of people have told me today that so long as a named storm is
this weak they don't mind. The reason I object to naming this (and two
others earlier this year) is because, alas, there are those who just look
at the total number of named storms per season. For example, insurance
companies. The more named storms there are, regardless of strength, the
worse the season looks to those who just look at the numbers and not at
each storm. I could be mistaken of course. Maybe insurance companies do
look at each storm in detail? In which case, they would so far have a
tally of 4 named storms this year that truely deserved it, not 7.

If she looks like she's really picking up intensity and/or heading to the
NC coast, I'll send out another update later. Otherwise you'll hear from
me tomorrow.

Toodle pip,
J.
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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