weak-to-mid Tropical Storm at about 11.45 am, with no change in max winds
(50mph). The heaviest convective activity has so far has remained
off-shore, and it looks like she is weakening. She is heading in a north
almost north-northeastward direction, and has picked up her forward speed
to 12mph. Soon she will be heading in a northeastward direction and away
from the US as she moves clockwise around that high pressure system over
the Atlantic.
Her intensity didn't change today because of the combined effects of wind
shear and some limited interaction with land. The wind shear has been
strong enough to push the center of convection to the south of the center,
and the center of circulation is again visible on satellite images. So,
although she hasn't completely cleared NC yet, she looks like she will be
a 'nice' storm for them. I hear they are in a drought, but I am not sure
this storm brought them enough rain to help that situation.
Once she re-emerges into the Atlantic later today her center will be close
to the northern edge of the Gulf Stream, which skirts the US coast from
Florida to Cape Hatteras, NC and then 'breaks away' from the coastline and
heads out in a north-eastward direction into the Atlantic. Depending on
how close she is to the Gulf Stream, this means that Gabrielle will be
over cooler waters of somewhere between 25-27 degs C. Along with the wind
shear from the north, this should stop her from developing any further.
Just a point of interest: North Carolina has historically had the most
'hits' and I don't mean number 1 chart topping hits (although they may
have had those too) :)
And now it's time for a cup of tea :)
More tomorrow.
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
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