Tuesday, July 15, 2008

TS Bertha & The Blob: July 15 Update A

Well things are looking better all over the place today. Let's start
with 'The Blob' :).

The Blob:
The atmospheric circulation was not in this system in the manner I
normally see for a storm, although there was (and still is) some nice
convective activity - it's bark looked worse than it's bite. I will keep
an eye on it, but at the moment it doesn't look like it will amount to
much. There is no circulation anywhere in the atmosphere in the vicinity
of the convection and the NHC has reduced the probability that this will
turn into something. So this is my last entry on this particular blob.

TS Bertha... the Never Ending Story...
It feels like a long 12 days since I started reporting on Bertha (a mere
Tropical Depression back then) and she's still a really strong TS with
winds of 70mph. I think she actually made cat 1 hurricane strength
yesterday given her structure and the amount of convective activity, but
there's very little difference between a strong TS (39-73mph) and weak
cat 1 (74-95 mph) with winds hovering at around 70mph. She has expanded
in area though, and she is moving over waters of 27-28 deg C with low
wind shear ahead of her. - signs that she may officially re-intensify a

She's now moving along faster than expected at 12 mph in a N-NE
direction, and will soon be heading NE, then E. The track (and computer
models) have her then turning SE tomorrow before she changes direction
once again and heads back NE on Friday. The reason for this convoluted
path: although she is currently moving clockwise around a high pressure
system (because this is the northern hemisphere), there is a low
pressure system digging in from the north. So the "clock-face" she is
following around the Atlantic (see


for clock-face explanation) is not as round as we are used to - it is a
little Dali-esque clock with wiggles and whatnots (technical terms ;) ).
That is why her track brings her back south tomorrow.

The research cruise did leave Bermuda this morning and they are
currently E-SE relative to the island. From the ship: "Nice 15 knt
breeze and the swell even." Just 6-8ft seas according to our intrepid
reporter. Fortunately they are not going too far east ... otherwise
guess who they might bump into in a couple of days? :)

That's all for today I expect - but there will be more on Bertha tomorrow.

Have a wonderful day, wherever you are. And of course, if you have
questions... I can try and find someone to answer them for you ;)

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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