Wednesday, November 05, 2008

TD 17: November 5 Update B

No surprises here ... data from the plane showed that the blobette is, indeed, a Tropical Depression with low-level circulation and convection.

It's quite disorganized so I can't see a clear center and I'll go with the official one from the NHC which has it currently at about 14N, 81.8W. It is heading NW at 5mph and is still SE of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The forecast calls for it to become a TS tonight/tomorrow. Currently winds are at 30mph (central pressure 1004mb), and as TS winds are from 39-73mph, that's not too much of a stretch. Satellite winds are already showing wind speeds of 40-45mph.

As it's on that southwestern side of a high pressure system (remember,  in the Northern Hemisphere things move clockwise around a high), it will soon curve to the North and then eventually to the NE. The question really is where will that northward turn occur... will it get closer to land, which will help to keep it's intensity down, or will it remain over warm waters and head towards Cuba. The forecast track takes it very close to that corner before curving out tomorrow. I don't have high enough resolution pressure fields to be able to make that call, so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow. And of course, what happens beyond Cuba ... well, talking rabbits would have as good an answer as anyone else to that at the moment. ;)

Given the uncertainty in the track, there is large uncertainty in the intensity. Some of the models forecast it to become a Major Hurricane (cat 3 or higher) before landfall in Cuba in about 5 days (because apparently Cuba hasn't had enough of those this year). It's way too soon for me to tell - both the track and intensity - although as I've said before the GFDL model has been doing rather well on the track this year.

 I will say it has some pretty strong convection at the moment - mostly over water.

I'll be watching it tomorrow of course - the first thing to look for is how close it gets to that Nicaragua/Honduras border/land area before turning north. Then we'll have a clearer idea. Hopefully.

So... I got *quite* a few responses to my earlier message, like: "You is determinated to edumacate us wit bigest words!!!!!" ;) (sorry I not had time to write back to you all)... You like 'caudicty' huh? I do too so I thought I'd try and save it from the brink of extinction...  (thanks to BM for sending it to me).

Until tomorrow amigos...


Blogs archived at: ------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------         

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