Thursday, November 06, 2008

Tropical Storm Paloma: November 6 Update B

Quick update:

She's been slowly intensifying all day, and now has winds of just below
65 mph (TS: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 994 mb, making her a
mid-strong TS. There's still nothing that will inhibit her
intensification, so she'll be a hurricane by tomorrow. No clear eye yet,
but it's easy to see the center of circulation - which now extends up to
the middle of the troposphere (lowest part of our atmosphere). Signs of
circulation are now also beginning to emerge in the upper levels as well
- which is an indication that this could be a strong storm.

The center was shifted eastward after a hurricane hunter plane went into
the system, and it is now at 16.3N, 81.1W, She'd moving more-or-less
northward at 8mph, and because she's picked up speed it looks like
she'll pass v. close to/over the Caymans tomorrow evening as a
hurricane, with landfall in Cuba now moved up to the middle of the day
on Sunday. Wind shear is not expected to increase until some time over
the weekend, giving her plenty of time to increase in intensity.

By the way, it's still Hurricane Season (for those who conveniently
forgot, or wishfully thought it ended at the beginning of November
;))... this storm is still within the 97% of all tropical storm activity
time frame.

More tomorrow (unless something dramatic happens tonight).

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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