Friday, September 03, 2010

Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, Gaston the remanent low, and an Atlantic Blobette: September 3, Update A

I see things are winding down out there. Oh, wait, that was a dream I had. Never mind. ;-)
Hurricane Earl:
Wind shear and interaction with land continues to bring this chap down, along with some dry air. He's now got winds of 80mph, so he's a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 961mb. He is moving NE at 22mph and is past the Gulf Stream 'danger zone' so water temperatures are cooler... a lot cooler with surface temperatures now only 25 deg C. He's at 38.2N, 71.8W. Vorticity is still strong throughout the troposphere, but I see signs of weakening in the upper levels (yay!).  Given the conditions he's operating under he will continue to weaken. Convection is greatly reduced, with all of the strongest stuff offshore. I think he'll be a Tropical Storm by the time he passes Cape Cod later tonight and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia tomorrow afternoon - this is the same as the NHC forecast.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She's at about 30N, 65.5W and is moving NNE at 14mph. Her winds are officially 40mph, which means she's barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Her central pressure is 1011mb. I don't think she's a Tropical Storm any more. There is some convection, but very little, and vorticity is only in the lowest sections of the troposphere. The remanent low that is Gaston has more vorticity. Surface water temperatures are 28 deg C but the warm water is very shallow with 26.5 deg C or warmer only in the upper 50m. She's continuing to experience strong wind shear and is surrounded by the Saharan Air Layer (dry and dusty air - cough cough), which has taken it's toll. I agree with the NHC on their forecast - she'll pass close to Bermuda but will be a Tropical Depression. Bermuda might not even get any rain - it might be a pleasantly breezy day... er night I mean (she'll get there sometime tonight).
Gaston, the remanent low:
I know I said I'd only send an update if something happened - the NHC have increased his chances of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours to 50%. He's trying to get going and convection is a little stronger. Vortcity is stronger than Fiona, and covers the entire lower half of the troposphere. His center is somewhere around 15.5N, 43W and he is moving westward at 10mph. He's still surrounded by dry and dusty air, which is inhibiting his development.
Atlantic Blobette:
Yes, there's another one. It's teetering on the edge of my crystal ball, way out in the eastern Atlantic. I'm not going to write more about this until I can see what's going on, or it becomes a storm in which case the NHC will have better information than I do. At the moment they have given it a 30% probability of TS formation in the next 48 hours. We'll see about that. With all this dusty air around, I'm not so sure.  
That's it for today. I'm told that 'Noir Spiderman' and 'Vampire Jubilee' are in my room. I don't know what this means either, but I think I should leave... ! ;-)
Toodle pip!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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