Sunday, September 12, 2010

Hurricane Igor, Tropical Depression 12, and the Caribbean Blob(ette): September 12, Update A

Great googliemooglies! and Crikey too! I've just looked at the Atlantic situation. Double crikey! I know I said I thought they had underestimated the intensity of Igor by "quite a bit", but boy did he grow up in a rush!
Hurricane Igor:
A cat 4!! when did that happen? Hmm... looking through the storm archives I see that they had him as a cat 2 and then upgraded him to a cat 4 a mere 6 hours later. Hmm. I'm not convinced. I suspect he's been a bit underestimated in terms of the intensity, but I've been away from a computer since yesterday so that's just my guess based on my reading of the storm versus the advisories issued at that time. Anyway, I think they have a better handle on the intensity now. They get my seal of approval about that.
So, Igor. Cat 4, hey? He has winds of 140 mph and a central pressure of 942mb. Those winds make him a mid-sized cat 4 (range: 131-155mph). He's still moving west at 14mph and is a good looking storm with a very clear and large eye centered at 17.7N, 46.9W. I don't see anything in the vorticity that suggests he will diminsh any time soon. Wind shear doesn't appear to be strong either. At the moment it looks like he will remain on a westward track. There is a low pressure from the north that might allow him to carve a path to the WNW and then NW before he gets to the northern Caribbean area. That turn, if its going to happen, should occur in the next 24 hours, so that's something to watch for.
Tropical Depression 12:
Goodness me! The NHC have finally decided to label blobs and blobettes (or invests as they call them) as Tropical Depressions again instead of going directly to a named Tropical Storm. This was formerly the Atlantic Blob that just came off the coast of Africa yesterday (or was it the day before?). It's still waaay out there to the east. It has very good vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere now, but nothing above the mid-levels. It also has some convection, but not much from what I can see. It's a little too far east for me to see it clearly yet. More on this tomorrow if it develops further.
Caribbean Blob(ette):
Formerly the Caribbean blobette, but it looks like it was beaten to the Tropical Depression goal post by the far eastern Atlantic Blob. The vorticity has decreased in this system since yesterday, but the convection is still on-going and is bringing a lot of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic. It's still moving west across the Caribbean, but mostly as a blob of thundery weather. No more on this unless it develops into a TD or TS!   
That's it for today! I'll be more awake tomorrow (the weekend is over, I suppose I have to be! ;-) ).  
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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