Sunday, September 26, 2010

Remnant Lows Lisa and Matthew and a Caribbean Blobette: September 25, Update A

And the lazy weekend theme continues for me (who hiked 21 miles over some hilly coastal terrain this weekend and can no longer move her legs. And people run marathons??? how? why? how?!?) and our storms. (yay!)
Both Lisa and Matthew are now officially remnant lows. I agree with this assesment.
Tropical Depression Lisa:
Lisa is at 26.1N, 29.4W, moving NNW at 7pm. Winds are estimated to be 30mph and her central pressure is 1008mb. Although vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, the convection has pretty much dropped away. This is my last update on this system.
Tropical Depression Matthew:
Matthew is at 17.4N, 92.9W, moving W at 9mph. As I thought, he is now moving westward rather than northwest, so his track has changed slightly and instead of dissipating over the Yucatan Peninsula, he'll go bid farewell over central Mexico. Winds are 25mph and central pressure is 1003mb. Finally! After a couple of days over land the vorticity and convection are beginning to decrease. Woo-hoo! There is still a lot of rain in the system but the thunderstorm level activity has diminished. This is my last update on this system.
Caribbean Blobette:
There is an area in the Caribbean that the NHC have marked as having 10% chance of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours. This is an area that was highlighted by those experimental long-term (7-10 days) forecast models that I mentioned in a much earlier blog (well it seemed like a long time ago). Although there is a bit of convection (as a result of Matthew I think), there is not much vorticity so we'll see if this develops. The NHC mentioned this as a possiblity at least twice (that I saw) during their Matthew write-ups. The models envision this blobette becoming a thing to chat about on Weds or Thurs. Something to look forward to, hey? ;-) 
That is all for this rather lovely weekend! :-)
Toodle pip!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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