November 30: Final Day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Welcome to the final entry of my award-breaking blog for this year!! J I might be leaping to conclusion, but as I sit here in subtropical Florida in my sweater, with the fire blazing merrily away, I’m inclined to think that the season is pretty much over. Yes my friends, it is that time of year when you can breathe a sigh of relief and thank your lucky stars (and have a glass or two of wine) that this is the last Hurricane Season message from me until next year. Probably.

(Unless, of course, that blobette with a 20% chance of development that the NHC are watching today does something silly. It has some circulation (but more like a front than a storm), not much convection, and very little conviction. It’s just Mother Nature’s wonderfully capricious sense of humour to have a blobette today, that’s all. ;-))

This year was actually a quieter season compared to last year and, contrary to some reports, I think it was generally an average year. Officially we had 19 tropical named storms, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 were major hurricanes. As usual, you may have noticed that I didn’t always agree with the NHC (I was trying to be subtle, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it escaped your attention ;-)). According to the blurb: “This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.” Hmm. Really? Let’s dissect this (because I’m a scientist and that’s what we all do in the movies).

The average season now has around 12-13 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. So we had an average number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. That leaves the number of named storms. We know there were some Micky Mouse storms (hey, I live in Florida, I have been indoctrinated ;-)) – those that would have been cartoon characters if they had a chance. They wouldn’t have been named in ye olde goldene dayse because our satellite data interpretation wasn’t as good. Definitely Tropical Storms Cindy, Franklin and Jose. TS Lee and TS Harvey were also rather questionable and rather short. So that leaves us with 14 storms (including subtropical Storms) that would really be eligible to attend the Queen’s Garden Party (provided they had the right hats). So I’ll go against the grain and say that really, in the grand scheme of things, this wasn’t greatly above average as seasons go. Ho hum.

And that, I think, will be my last scientific commentary for this season. Hurray! J Now it’s fun-time. First, some exciting statistics for this blog (well, it’s exciting to me J). This is my 100^th entry for this season. This is also the conclusion of 5 years of having a proper website blog (which looks very blog-like with all the photos and whatnots), and 6 years of a listserve. During that time, the website has had around 21, 200 hits! That is amazing for something that has, generally, been spread by word-of-mouth. If I include the listserve since the beginning (c. 2005), you, your family, your friends, your friend’s friends, your families friends, your friends families, your family’s family, your cats, dogs, goldfish, ponies and sheep, and all their friends and families have, collectively, read my ramblings over 500,000 times!!! Gulp.

THANK YOU for continuing to read, for telling people, and for entertaining me throughout the season with jokes, comments, and fabulous questions. Also, a BIG Thank You to those of you who were in the paths of assorted storms who sent me your thoughts, comments, photos etc. That really livened up what would otherwise have been a very dull read. Thanks to the NHC for doing a pretty tricky job really, and for being Moriarty to my Sherlock (or possibly vice versa?)...give me a call if you need a hand. ;-) I also need to thank my fantastic technical support team: Doug M. at the CMS/USF (http://www.marine.usf.edu/) in Florida for helping me maintain the listserve, and Chris H. in Texas and Ben A. in California for helping me maintain and upgrade my website blog. By the way, if you want to take a dip in geek-nirvana and are interested in B-movies and other such things, Chris and another friend, Scott, have just re-booted their classic podcasts at http://stomptokyo.tumblr.com/. I also want to thank Andrew T. in North Carolina who contacted me via twitter to invite me to write my first guest blog entry this year for Southern Fried Science (http://www.southernfriedscience.com/). This is a groovy blog by marine science students in North Carolina. Unfortunately I completely goofed on this (sorry sorry!) because it was right around the time of Hurricane Irene and in the midst of an unusually mad travel/work schedule for me (my real job strikes again ;-)). Hopefully, next year? Finally, last but not least, I have to thank those who are in the thick of things – those who are near and dear to me. Thanks for your continued attempts to make me sane... you have a life-long project. Good luck with that. ;-)

Although I usually hibernate from now until June, I do have a couple of marshmallows on the fire… as you know, I’m a twit (JyovianStorm), and will continue to tweet about storms in other basins as well as other things that I find interesting (science, science fiction, literature, and things). AND now for something completely different (Monty Python)… I have a NEW blog! it’s a photo-blog called ‘Just around the next corner’ and can be found at http://jyovianstorm.tumblr.com/. I started this a couple of weeks ago (so I’m still a bit wonky on it) and am currently posting photos of the South West Coast Path walks in Devon, UK. Two new photos appear every day, and there are multiple pages now. Here is one sample:


“One of those rare cloudy days in the UK, just after the UFO took off…”.  

Click on them to see them in high-res. I’ll be posting other photos once I run out of these.    

Well I think that’s it from me for 2011!! So… here’s a big slurpy (and slurry) toast to the end of the Hurricane Season. I wish you all a very happy and safe holiday season, Happy New Year and all that jazz, and I’ll be back for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Cheers & TOODLE PIP!
J. J

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Extratropical Storm Sean: 11/11/11 Update A

Happy Elevenses Day (11/11/11), Veterans Day (US) and Remembrance Day (Commonwealth Countries)! Hands up if you did something to mark the 11/11/11 11:11:11 second?  (Me too ;-))

This will be my apopemptic entry on Sean (oooh aaah… big word alert – I learned it today so I had to share J). He is officially at 36.7N, 57.7W, heading ENE at a whopping 35mph. This fast forward speed is because he is now fully part of that low pressure front I mentioned yesterday and doesn’t have the circulation of a tropical storm; the vorticity (circulation) is no longer confined to a nice circular area in the lower troposphere. Winds are 40mph (so officially barely Tropical Storm level) and central pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Not much more to say really.

For those of you taking advantage of a three day weekend to fix things around the house, here's something that I hope will help:



Enjoy! ;-)

Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Tropical Storm Sean: November 10, Update A

I found two things of note today. First, I found a sharp metal shaving in a restaurant. I was there for lunch and it caught my attention after I realized it didn’t have quite the same consistency as the cooked pasta I was chewing. Oops. And second, I found that the NHC and I are in better agreement. Not oops. J

Tropical Storm Sean is currently at 31.5N, 68.2W moving ENE at a nice 13mph. He has remained a mid-to-high Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph and central pressure of 983mb. His convection has improved a bit, but the dry air is still a factor and the wind shear is pretty strong for him so the convection is all to the northeast (satellite IR image):



I think the NHC have dropped the idea of Hurricane Sean for this year – their forecast now keeps him as a Tropical Storm until tomorrow, when he merges with a low pressure front that’s moving eastward off the US (as you can probably tell if you live along the eastern US – it is certainly breezy and cooler in Florida this evening). I’ve heard people say that the windy weather in Florida and the choppy waters are because of the tropical storm… nope…. they are because of this front. You can see this front in the water vapor satellite image as the band of clouds that stretches from the northeast to the southwest and covers Florida:



It is a little tricky for me to see the center of circulation because he is not very well organized and it’s night now, but it looks like it might be slightly to the right of the forecast track, so it might pass a bit closer to Bermuda. It still looks like it’ll be more windy than thunderstorms over the island because the bulk of the heaviest convection is already almost due west of Bermuda.

I’ll be back tomorrow… assuming I didn’t actually swallow any metal - a bit of extra aluminium (note: correct UK spelling ;-)) or whatever it was is probably good for me anyway, right? And alcohol can be used to clean cuts can’t it? Hmm… ;-)

Adieu for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Tropical Storm Sean: November 9, Update A

Happy Carl Sagan Day! Ok, so by the time I finish this I know the day will be over and many of you won’t read this until tomorrow, but I was too busy celebrating by watching the last couple of episodes of the excellent series ‘Cosmos’ with some like-minded geeks. Yes, of course there was wine. ;-)

In keeping with the spirit of Dr. Sagan I should warn you that I may, perhaps, exhibit some very subtle signs of science and healthy skepticism in the next few minutes…

Tropical Storm Sean’s vital statistics currently show that he’s at 29.7N, 70.9W moving N at 8mph. The estimated central pressure is 991mb and winds are 65mph, making him a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

I can’t believe the NHC think Sean may be a hurricane tomorrow! (did you notice my very subtle skepticism?). Didn’t we already cover this earlier in the season? I would not classify a storm as a hurricane if the upper tropospheric vorticity is actually a low pressure front! The structure is not the same as a tropical storm at all. Goodness me. Here are some reasons why he’s nowhere near being a hurricane:

1. The vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere so it certainly looks like a nice Tropical Storm. However, the vorticity (circulation) from the mid-to-upper troposphere looks more like a low pressure front than a tropical storm… it is spread out over a  large area, from the northern Caribbean to Georgia. A tropical storm would have a confined area of vorticity.  

2. The convection continues to remain weak. Given that the blue areas are clouds with no rain, the light yellow is a light drizzle, and the orange areas are heavy rain with some thunder, does this IR satellite image look like it’s strong enough to be approaching hurricane strength?



He looks remarkably similar to yesterday’s image (which was similar to the day before). At the most, I would continue to place him as a mid-sized Tropical Storm.

3. If we look at the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those from earlier in the season? – if not, send me a note and I’ll find my ‘should-be-award-winning-if-there-was-one-for-this’ fabulous explanation for you ;-)), we see that the lower level convergence is strong enough for a tropical storm, but the upper level divergence is really wishy-washy.

The biggest inhibitor continues to be the dry air. Wind shear dropped a little since yesterday, but it’s still enough so wind shear continues to have a bit of an effect on this storm.

Although I’m not buying the intensity thing, I think the track is generally good. He will pass to the west of Bermuda and shouldn’t  really affect any land too much. At the rate he is going, he’ll be passing Bermuda during the day tomorrow instead of overnight.

Before I go, I thought I’d mention that there was a big non-tropical storm in Alaska today. Chris in Washington DC thought I would be interested in knowing such a thing was happening (yes indeed! Thanks!). This is not a tropical storm of course, but it was big enough to evacuate people and create some NOAA storm quick-look pages, which are normally used during a tropical storm. The reason for the evacuations and the storm pages is because there is some rather large storm surge. Here are the National Ocean Service observations of this from the coastal water level instrument in Nome, Alaska (provided via tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov):



The top plot shows the water level. The blue line in the top figure is the usual predicted water level along the coast, the red line is the observed water level along the coast, and the green line is the difference between the two… i.e. the storm surge. You can see that the water levels along the coast at Nome were 10ft above normal, and the surge was 9ft!! That is HUGE. And that’s just from a ‘normal’ winter storm I think.  The second plot shows the winds, which went up to about 42 knots. The third plot shows the drop in pressure as the storm passed by… down to 970mb! That’s less than some tropical storms!  The last figure shows the air and water temperatures, in deg F… hmm, I see temperatures of 17 deg F, How toasty is that? Practially bikini-wearing weather, right? Ha. So not only was the storm surge high, but the water was cold (just over 32 deg F when the surge was the highest).

That’s it for today. Time for a lovely nap now. More tomorrow though!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Tropical Storm Sean: November 8, Update A

How does the time go by so quickly, huh? Anyway, very little of it is left today for me to write this so it’ll be quick and very practical and not very funny at all.

The NHC changed Sean to a Subtropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. That would be in keeping with the vorticity (circulation) signals I was seeing, where he looked like a Tropical Storm in the lower half of the troposphere, but had a low pressure front signal in the upper troposphere. I think they should have left him as a Subtropical Storm because he really only looks like a Tropical Storm in the lowest levels of the troposphere - the vorticity is looking more like a low pressure front now in the middle levels of the troposphere as well as the upper levels.

He is currently at around 27.5N, 70.5W. This is a bit south and west of the official location of 27.9N, 70.1W. He appears to be heading westwardish, officially at 3mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 999mb, making him a low-to-mid level storm (TS range: 39-73mph).

As I expected, convection really has not picked up – the IR satellite image from this evening is here:


Can you spot the difference from yesterday’s IR image? Oh yes, there’s that one small cloud…  ;-) There is just too much dry air around him for the convection to pick up and I still don’t see this changing any time soon.

There are storm warnings for Bermuda. It should be a lovely breezy night on Thursday. I’m not sure you should even bother dusting off the umbrellas.

I had all these grand plans to write about people I know called Sean, asteroids, high storm surge where the water temps are 1 deg C (brrr), and other relevant stuff, but must sleep now. Tomorrow is Carl Sagan Day. Maybe that will inspire me to write something scientific and clever … ;-) (one can hope at least).

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Atlantic Blob: November 7, Update A

In true Monty Python manner, the Atlantic Hurricane Season says, “I’m not dead yet!” J

There’s a swirly blob in the Atlantic centered at 69.7W, 27N, just southwest of Bermuda. The NHC have marked this as having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression. This looks like a tropical depression already to me. You can very nicely see the closed circulation if you look at the satellite images. Here's the latest IR image:


If you want to watch the video to see the swirliness, scroll down on this page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml until you see the heading ‘Atlantic Floater 1’. Click on Visible – Flash or IR – Flash to see the moving pictures (ooh, pretty). Looks like some nice closed circulation, doesn’t it? The vorticity (circulation) is actually very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and has the signature look of a tropical system.  There is also considerable vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere, but that is associated with a low pressure front.

There are two factors that are inhibiting this from developing. The IR satellite image shows very little convection which is because of the dry air around it, and the you can see the clouds streaming off to the north and east, which indicates wind shear.

It seems unlikely to me that this will develop very much more because of these two things, but it’s worth keeping an eye on just because the circulation is strong.

Ho hum. So much for an early nap! I’ll be back if this thinks of doing anything dodgy. The next name is Sean, in case we need to know such things.

Ciao!
J.

p.s. <Cool Astronomy!> As you know (or will know once you’ve read this), there’s a Large Asteroid in the ‘hood. It is the size of an aircraft carrier, or around 400m wide for those of us who haven’t got aircraft carrier sizes memorized. It will pass just slightly closer to Earth than the moon’s orbit. “Don’t Panic!” (HHGTTG). It is called ‘YU55’ (no relative of U2). The last time this sort of thing happened was in 1976, but the astronomers of the day forgot to set their alarms and didn’t know this had happened until it was too late. Having been caught snoozing once, they have already calculated the next time this will happen (other than tomorrow of course) will be in the year 2028. They have set their alarms for the year 2027 and 45 seconds… <end of Cool Astronomy!>

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Ex-Tropical Depression Rina and a new satellite: October 29, Update A

As I expected, Tropical Storm Rina fell apart yesterday (Friday) morning so she was downgraded to a Tropical Depression, and by yesterday evening the NHC had stopped issuing advisories on her. She was too weak after her interaction with land and the wind shear was too strong for her. This is also my last update on Rina.  Hurray! J I’ll keep an eye on that Atlantic blob, but will only write if it looks like it’s thinking about being more than a blob.

In response to the comment by the ‘Queen’ yesterday, Bryan from Florida said: “The Toronto Blue Jays and Montreal Expos are Major League Baseball teams outside of the US, and thus "World Series" is appropriate. ;)”  I agree, that should have said ‘North America’, not just ‘America’. I’ll have to have a word with her writers. ;-)

<Interesting science news alert> There was a piece of very cool news this week (other than the two historic changes to the constitution regarding the British throne succession, which is also quite groovy).  The next generation of climate/weather satellite was launched from California yesterday! It is called NPP and is a joint NASA/NOAA satellite (with some icing on the cake from the DoD). Here is the NPP mission badge:



You want to know why it’s called NPP? Here goes… it stands for NPOESS Preparatory Project. And what is NPOESS? That is the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System. So er, yeah, NPP for short works for me. Anyone want to try their hand at another acronym? (that’ll keep you busy for 2 minutes) ;-)

It is what is known as a polar-orbiting satellite because, as you can imagine, it orbits the earth in more of a north/south direction than an east/west direction and therefore flies close to the poles (not necessarily over them). I found this diagram on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) website which shows an example of how each orbit covers a different part of the earth:



The NPP has five fabulous instruments that will collect data on various things, such as the temperature and humidity of the atmosphere, the sea surface temperature, algal blooms in the ocean, the amount of sunlight being reflected by clouds, dust storms, changes in ice sheets and land cover. To find out more about these, check out NASA’s collection of posters…    http://npp.gsfc.nasa.gov/posters.html.

<end of interesting science news alert>

That’s it for now!

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Tropical Storm Rina and the Atlantic Blob: October 27, Update A

Today marks the one year anniversary of my return to the U.S. A.! At the end of this entry I will share a few words from the Queen to mark this event. But first, we have a storm and blob to chat about.

Tropical Storm Rina
She has been weakening at a nice stately pace all day, and is now officially a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 996mb. Her center is officially at 20.5N, 87.2W, just a tad west of the Island of Cozumel and she is moving northward at 7mph.

I agree with the NHC, she is most definitely a Tropical Storm. There is now no vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere, just in the lower half of the troposphere. I think she’s weaker than the 60mph winds suggest, but not by much. She is almost over land and she is experiencing some strong wind shear, so she should continue to weaken. However parts of her are still over very warm water (28-29 deg C), including the Yucatan Strait, where the upper 100-125m are warmer than 26 deg C. This means she has the resources to have a lot of convection. You can see this in the IR satellite image:



There is quite a bit of the red/grey, so there is a lot of thundery weather over the northern Yucatan peninsula. I imagine they are getting a bit wet! Most of this convection is to the north/northeast of the center because of the wind shear. She is really more of a water event than a wind event. The observed winds in Cancun are from the east at 29mph – not even Tropical Storm wind speeds there.

Her forecast track is fascinating. J



It is not often that we see a storm take such a southward path, so I had to grab the image for posterity. She won’t really be a tropical storm for too much longer so that southward track is about as useful as an ice cold beer in a blizzard. I don’t think she will be a Tropical Storm in 24 hours because she will have been over land for a number of hours by then. The official NHC forecast is a little slower and has her weakening to a Depression on Saturday morning. As she is pushed to the south (by a low pressure front that is currently sweeping through the Texas/Louisiana region), she will blend in with a large area of convection that is covering the Caribbean, so that whole area will be on the cloudy/drizzly side of things. Umm… anyone going on a Caribbean cruise soon? Time to get your umbrellas out as you sip your umbrella drinks on the top deck!

Speaking of that large area of convection over the Caribbean – the NHC have marked this as an area they are watching with a very lowly 10% chance of developing. I’m not too bothered about this area… it has no vorticity (circulation) of its own to speak of.

Atlantic Blob:
But there is another area of convection marked on the NHC map as having a 10% chance of developing. This is out in the Atlantic, at around 20N, 40W (ish). This has some nice vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere. It might not develop because wind shear is a bit strong but I’ll just watch it now and again.

And now, some selected words from the Queen. These were sent to me by Tom in St. Thomas and Greg in Florida – two sources! They must be true. J

<Begin Message>

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your immediate failure to financially manage yourselves we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.) Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except Kansas , which she does not fancy). Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated sometime next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.'
------------------------
2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.’
-----------------
5. You will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
----------------------
6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
--------------------
10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialogue in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
---------------------
11. You will cease playing American football. There are only two kinds of proper football; one you call soccer, and rugby (dominated by the New Zealanders). Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
---------------------
12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America . Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the Australians (World dominators) first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
--------------------
15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

<End message>

You know she’s being generous allowing you to have vegetable peelers? In the UK we have to use lollipop sticks.
Tally ho and toodle pip until tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Rina: October 26, Update A

With this post, some lucky person is going to be the 20,000th visitor to my blog website!! And that doesn’t include those of you who read this in your email. That is just simply mind-boggling and humbling to me! Thank you all. In honour (with a ‘u’ of course) of this, I shall be extra humble today.

Umm… umm… umm… ok, I give up. As Oscar Wilde said to the New York customs agent: “I have nothing to declare but my genius”. So, being the luminous and brilliant genius that I am, I shall continue with my normal babbling. ;-)

It turns out that Rina was weaker than her official intensity yesterday evening. After getting data from a hurricane hunter plane this morning, the NHC downgraded her at 11.45am (CDT) from a strong cat 2 with winds of 110mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a mid-level cat 1 with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95 mph). Currently she is officially still a mid-level cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure of 979mb. I would agree with this estimate. Although she needs a bit of make-up (she’s looking a bit ragged in the visible satellite image below), you can see that the convection is quite strong in the corresponding satellite IR image – lots of red and gray which indicates thunderstorms and stuff (technical term for ‘stuff’ ;-)).



Also, her vorticity (circulation) is good throughout the troposphere, which indicates that she is definitely a hurricane. She doesn’t really have an eye, so I would put her winds at below the ~90mph range. Yay! I agree with the NHC on the intensity… time to break open the champagne! ;-)

I don’t think she’ll get much stronger than she is at the moment. Wind shear is still low for most of the storm, but her northern edge is in an area of stronger shear which you can see in the visible satellite image as the clouds stream off to the northeast. Also, her western edge is interacting with the Yucatan peninsula now, which will help to keep her at a lower intensity. Working against this is the ocean… she is still over some very warm water – the surface temperatures are 28-29 deg C, and the upper 100-125m of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C! So there is plenty for her to munch on, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the wind shear and land impact. It looks like this will be a bigger rain event than a wind event (although it will be windy) for the Yucatan. They will probably get some flooding.

She is currently centered at around 18.5N, 86.5W and is officially moving NW at 6mph. I think she’s actually moving a little more WNW, but it’s difficult to see her center of circulation because she’s a bit messy. Now for her track… oh fratteratterpeggaloomer! (oooh… that’s the first time I’ve used that word. How exciting! ;-)). I don’t have good resolution pressure fields for that area today. What a pickle. Looking at other clues: her forward speed is still on the slow side, which indicates that she is still struggling against a bit of high pressure in front of her – to the north and northwest. The center of the cone track has her making landfall tomorrow afternoon, but she doesn’t look like she’s close enough to the Yucatan yet for that to happen. At the moment it still looks to me like she’ll interact with the Yucatan area more than the center of the cone track indicates, which will decrease her intensity even more and she may just end up fizzling out in that area. For her to follow that center of cone track, she needs to make a pretty sharp NNW turn any minute now – we should definitely see this by tomorrow morning. I know some models are showing tracks as far north as Tampa Bay… “Don’t Panic” (HHGTTG) – it’s far too soon for that! ;-)

If she does anything interesting I might send out another update later tonight, otherwise tomorrow amigos!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Rina: October 25, Update A

Hurricane Rina is turning out to be a bit too awkward for a not-quite-end-of-the-season pip squeak little storm! She’s moving soo sloowlllyyy and while she dilly dallys in the Caribbean the pressure fields around her continue to change, which makes track forecasting a bit tricky.

Officially she is at 17.5N, 84.8W, moving W at 3mph. Winds are now 110mph, making her a very strong cat 2/almost cat 3 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Central pressure is 966mb.

Track: Her track was shifted a little to the right this morning, but is beginning to shift back to the left now. Although the forecast track (below) still has her curving to the northeast after the Yucatan, today I think it will continue to shift to the left and may actually be over the Yucatan more than expected.



The reason is because the high pressure that I mentioned yesterday (that is causing her to move slowly) has expanded and is now a high pressure ridge stretching from central Mexico, across the Gulf and southern Florida and into Cuba. This means that she can’t move northwards, so she’ll keep moving very slowly to the west until there is a break in this high pressure. The NHC forecast is for this high to move to the east, so she will continue more-or-less on their forecast track. They have been rather good at their tracks in the past few storms and I don’t have any reason to doubt this at the moment. The problem is what will happen once she reaches the Yucatan. Until that high pressure shifts and she starts to move at a respectable hurricane-pace, it’s a little difficult to predict the track.  So tomorrow we should watch her to see if she picks up forward speed because that would show that the high pressure is shifting to the east.

Intensity: Although she is officially a strong cat 2 storm, I think she might be a tad bit weaker at the moment. There is no eye, which I would expect with a storm that strong. Also, the convection is not as strong as it could be, and the upper level divergence (remember that?... if not, let me know and I’ll send out a reminder J) is fairly weak. The water is still warm, with the upper ~150m warmer than 26 deg C and there is also very little wind shear. I think she is not a cat 3 already because she is interacting with land (well, her outer bands are). I think I’d place her as a strong cat 1/weak cat 2 storm.

Hmm… I was expecting more clarity this evening (although after a glass or two of wine, what can you expect? ;-)). As I said yesterday, everyone should keep an eye on this one for now. I’ll be back tomorrow of course. We should know by then what she’s up to because the forecast has her speeding up and approaching the Yucatan tomorrow evening.

It be late here now. Night night and toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Rina: October 24, Update A

No, I have not fallen asleep on the job! I will do that in December (umm… shhh… don’t tell my boss that ;-)). I was traveling (again) and have just done the ‘sea to shining sea’ thing. Now I’m back in sunny Florida after a quick visit to sunny California. By the way, has anyone been to the Getty Center? iPhone photo: ‘Sun over the Getty’:



It’s fabulous. You’ll need about 12 hours to see everything, but it’s nice to have a bit of culture now and again isn’t it? ;-)

Apparently Mother Nature hasn’t quite fallen asleep on the job either. I did manage to get a glimpse of a computer yesterday, just before Rina was officially a Tropical Depression… she looked like she was already a Tropical Storm at that point with good circulation in the entire lower half of the troposphere and a fair bit of convection. I think she was a hurricane by this morning, although she wasn’t officially upgraded until this afternoon when a plane returned data to indicate this. So far, I think the NHC have underestimated her intensity and she has NOT rapidly intensified from a TS to a Hurricane in a handful of hours.

She’s been holding steady at around  75 mph since her (ahem) “rapid intensification” earlier, making her a weak cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). Central pressure is 989mb. She is currently located at 17.1N, 83.1W and is officially heading WNW at 3mph.   The official track forecast has her heading WNW, then NW towards the Yucatan peninsula, clipping the Cancun region as a cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph) before turning NE and back towards Cuba. The intensity forecast makes Rina a cat 3 storm on Weds, before she gets to the Yucatan.

Intensity: I agree that she’s a weak cat 1 at the moment… no eye is visible (yet). It is possible that she will get to a cat 3 because she is going to move over very warm water (29-31 deg C), with the upper 100-150m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C (lots and lots of yummy ‘food’ for her). This area has some of the deepest warm water in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region and we often see storms intensify if they pass overhead. There isn’t much wind shear at the moment and it doesn’t look like there will be too much as she moves over this part of the Caribbean, so I don’t see any real reason for her not to intensify. After the Yucatan her intensity will depend on how much she interacts with Cuba. Too soon to tell.

Track: There is a large range of possibilities with this storm. One of the problems is that she is bumping up against a high pressure to the northwest, which means she’s trying to move ‘uphill’… which is why she has slowed officially to a 3mph crawl at the moment (although I think she’s moving a little faster than that). It is a bit tricky for me to be able to assess her track today (as I only saw a glimpse of a computer yesterday), but I think she may head  a little more to the right of the center of cone. If that’s what happens, she might not clip the Yucatan peninsula at all before she curves to the NE. I hope to have a better idea tomorrow!

There is a chance that she’ll go anywhere from the southern half of Florida to Cuba, and then across to the Bahamas (I’m currently expecting her to pass well south of the Keys). Everyone in this area should watch her just in case, and I’m not traveling this week (well, not far anyway J), so I’ll be ‘here’… standing on the sea wall, blowing the storm away if I can. ;-)

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

Well things are looking groovy out there. The Atlantic blob from yesterday has vanished off the NHC map. The vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere has decreased, there is not much convection, and wind shear is strong. I’m not going to write about this one anymore unless it pops back up.

As for the Gulf of Mexico blobette, the Hurricane Hunter plane found no center of circulation so I didn’t have to get ‘quite cross’ at anyone. Good job people! The NHC have downgraded the chance for a tropical storm to 30%. Other than that, there isn’t much change from yesterday. The vorticity for this is still spread out over a large area. There is still some strong convection because it is still over very warm waters. The convection did start to decrease during the day today as the storm drifted across a patch of less warm (still 29-30 deg C though) water, but it has perked back up this evening because it is now over the leg of the Loop Current that flows out of the Gulf – between Cuba and the Florida Keys. I probably won’t say any more on this one either, unless it looks like it’s improving in any way. I expect raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens in the southern half of Florida.

Until the next time… or the end of the season (again).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Gulf of Mexico Blobette and Atlantic Blob: October 17, Update A

Here is the IR satellite image of the Atlantic Basin at the moment, so this is just a quick update on the two blobs that you can see out there at the moment. (Warning: I’ve not had my morning cup of tea yet, so don’t worry if words are a bit blurry).



Gulf of Mexico Blobette:
This one looks quite ferocious, doesn’t it? Well, its look is worse that its structure. There is some lower tropospheric vorticity (circulation), but it stretches from the Bahamas, southwest across southern Florida and the southern Gulf of Mexico, and then down to the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is not very well developed at all and there is nothing much in the mid-to-upper troposphere. It does, however, have a lot of convection – lots of thundery weather in there. The reason why the convection is so strong is because of the ocean. It is over the Loop Current, which enters the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait and leaves the Gulf through the Straits of Florida. The surface waters of the Loop Current are very toasty – over 31 deg C! and water warmer than 26 deg C can be found in the upper 150m of the water column! So any storm, tropical or not, that passes over this area is bound to have a lot of convection.

They give this a 60% possibility of becoming a storm in the next 48 hours and are sending in a plane to investigate this afternoon. I shall be quite cross if it returns saying this is a tropical storm (unless it somehow pulls itself together by this afternoon, but it’s been spread out all over the map for days and looks quite set in its ways). Apart from the minimal vorticity (circulation), there is a lot of wind shear (ranging from 30-60 knots!). You can see this because the clouds are streaming off to the northeast. We’ve had some spectacular sunsets over Florida because of the water vapor in the skies above. Exhibit A: a photo of yesterday’s sunset, taken by moi. Although I’m a photographic genius with an iPhone, even 3 year old with a toy camera wouldn’t have been able to mess this up.



Regardless of the name, this does have some strong thundery weather in it so southern Florida might be getting a few sploshes of rain and stuff over the next few days. Don’t forget to take your umbrella with you. And a towel (that Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy knew what it was talking about!). ;-)

Atlantic Blob:
The other one I’ve been watching all weekend is the blob at around 10N, 40W. This one actually has more circulation in the lower half of the troposphere than the blobette, and it is confined to a relatively small area. However, as you can see, the convection doesn’t quite match and it is also in an area of some wind shear. At the moment it looks like wind shear will increase, so although I’ll watch this, I’m thinking that it won’t develop much.

More laterZ!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Ex-Florida Blobette: October 10, Update A

No crayon drawings in yellow, orange or red on the NHC Atlantic map! You know what this means? It means this entry will be hobbit-like… yes, short (with big hairy feet). ;-)

The Florida blobette fizzled out (still some circulation, but no real convection anymore). As expected, it brought rain and a bit-o-wind, and there was much rejoicing …

Lane from Florida said: “Thirsty central Florida got a wonderful wet kiss from cute Blobette. Our beloved green swamp is happier today.”

Clay from Georgia said: “This is wonderful news for south Georgia's peanut country, and the Okeefenokee Swamp, which has burned a lot the last two years because of the low water and errant lightning strikes."

Andrea from North Carolina (but currently in SC) said: “I just thought you'd like to know that the surf is up here in North Myrtle Beach, SC.”

Anyway, that’s it for this blobette. It would be symmetrically fitting if this was the last one of the season because the first blobette was also a Florida Blobette (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/06/june-2-update.html). We shall see.

I’ll be back when there’s another one or if something interesting crops up or, dare I say it, at the end of the season! Whatever shall I do with all this spare time? Umm… let me think, oh yes, I’m supposed to be helping out with this project: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/runicfilms/cowboy-creed-short-film. Enjoy! J (And please pass it along if you are entertained… the more the merrier. J).

Toodle pippy!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Florida Blobette: October 9, Update A

Not quite as windy as yesterday, but certainly wetter here today on the west-central coast of Florida. It rained almost non-stop and I thoroughly enjoyed it... it’s just like a fine Autumn day in the UK (minus the palm trees of course). J

Although the vorticity (circulation) in the lower troposphere is stronger today, it still remains spread out over a large area that stretches from the Bahamas north to central-Florida and then south again into the Gulf.  The NHC say the center of this broad area of low pressure is not well defined, but is about 50 miles SE of Cape Canaveral. I agree that there is a region that looks like a center of circulation just off the east coast of Florida, but it also looks like there’s a smaller (connected) area of circulation off southwest Florida as well… which is why I think this is (at the moment) a very disorganized big blobette. You can see these two areas in the IR image – they correspond to the convection in these two areas:



A chunk of this blobette is over the Florida Current (Gulf Stream) so it will produce a lot of rainfall because that ocean current is toasty warm (around 30 deg C) and water warmer than 26 deg is in the upper 100m. However I’m not sure if this will develop into anything much because wind shear is very strong (40-50 knots!) and this is so close to land. This blobette is moving northwestwardish at 10mph, so most of the northern half of Florida and areas to the north (GA, AL) and can expect some wellie-boots and brolly weather over the next couple of days.

I shall dedicate this ‘tropical’ weather to my family and friends over in the UK.

More tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Tropical Storm Philippe and the Bahamian/Florida Blobette: October 8, Update A

I think Tropical Storm Philippe has been a simulacrum of his former self since yesterday. (Oooh… big word alert! :-)).

Officially Philippe is still a Tropical Storm, with estimated winds of 50mph and central pressure of 994mb. He is heading NE at 30mph, and is centered at around 35.3N, 46W. I think he is much weaker than that and has been since yesterday. Here is the latest Infra-red satellite image of him:

You can see that there is barely any convection left in this system, and the vorticity (circulation) is mostly connected to that front that I showed you a couple of days ago instead of being a stand-alone blob of vorticity, which is what we would expect to see in a tropical storm. Another indication that he’s no longer a tropical storm is that he is moving forward at 30mph. With very few exceptions, this fast forward speed indicates that other things are afoot (and aloft ;-)). This is my last entry on Philippe.

I’m sure most readers aren’t to bothered about Philippe now anyway… you all want to know what is developing in the Bahama/Florida region, don’t you? It’s been a magnificently breezy and cool day here in St. Petersburg (Florida), I must say. It reminds me of a lovely blustery day in the UK. :-)

I’ve been watching this blobette all day. This morning it did not have any vorticity (circulation) to speak of, however that is slowly slowly changing and it now has an itsy-bitsy teeny-weeny amount in the lowest level of the troposphere. This is not enough to make this into anything at the moment, but the trend is in the right direction and I’ll be watching this one (you might get more than one update from me tomorrow!). The center of this vorticity (circulation) is currently split into two connected areas – one is over the Bahamas, just north of Cuba, and the other is in the Gulf near southwest Florida/the Keys. It really is very much a blobette at the moment. The convection is also not very strong, and is also spread out over a large area, as you can see in this IR satellite image:

If the circulation continues to improve and it can pull itself together, we might have a little system off the east coast of Florida, which might head north towards Georgia (too soon to say because it’s not really developed). However, I agree with the NHC, it will be making things a bit windy and slightly wet even if it doesn’t develop into anything formal. The next name is Rina! Rina, really? >From that font of all knowledge, Google, Rina is a girl’s name variant of a bunch of other names and is not a name in and of itself. Anyone know a non-variant Rina? Have they used all the she-‘R’ names up already? Still, it’s easy to say and spell. :-)

Enjoy your Saturday! It’s wine-o-clock time where I am. :-) More tomorrow … assuming I haven’t got blown away! ;-)
Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Philippe: October 6, Update A

I go away for a couple of days and oh how the world changes! Speaking of world changing…

Steve Jobs died yesterday, but he certainly made the most of his life and what a truly amazing legacy he left! Thank you for my iPhone, Marvin. (You ask, why Marvin? Heehee… brain the size of a planet, and I mostly use it as a simple communication device. ;-) Of course, after Marvin the depressed robot from The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy – another work of genius. One day I’ll figure out how to get apps….)

Now, Hurricane(!) Philippe. Just after my last entry, as expected, his center was officially ‘re-located’ to the south (probably because it didn’t like the neighbours). Rewinding a couple of days, he carried on westwardish for a while, and then did, indeed, make a nice sharpish turn to the NW, then North and is now heading NE at 13mph. The reason he took this track is because of the front that brought that wonderful, delightful, perfect cooler weather to much of the eastern US last weekend. It carried on moving east, across the Atlantic. I grabbed a water vapor satellite image a couple of days ago to show you:



The front is that line of clouds that extends from northeast to southwest in the Atlantic, and Philippe is at around 23-25N, 60W. He was being guided by that line of clouds. And here is a Water Vapor image from today.



You can see that he has sort of started to merge with that cold front.

His center is at around 29N, 58.4W, with winds of 85mph and a central pressure of 980mb. This means he is a mid-size cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph). He was officially upgraded to a weak cat 1 hurricane this morning. I don’t think he will remain a hurricane for too long because the wind shear is getting stronger.

And finally for today… Here’s to the Crazy Ones (narrated by Steve Jobs): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rwsuXHA7RA&feature=player_embedded#t=4s

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 3, Update A

Hurray, another one down! Yes, Ophelia is no more. She took so long that I’ve forgotten the great final Shakespeare quote I had lined up for her. One woe doth tread upon another’s heel. Bother. ;-)

She went over the tip of Newfoundland earlier today. She looked like she was mostly cloudy at that point, maybe a splash of rain… so I’m not sure the Newfoundlanders would have noticed anything unusual. ;-) The NHC’s last entry on Ophelia at 11am AST had her  at 48.1N, 52W moving ENE at 37mph. Winds were 60mph and her central pressure was estimated to be 996mb, so she was still at Tropical Storm level, but she wasn’t a Tropical Storm anymore so I agree with their decision to call her ‘post-tropical’. This is my last entry on Ophelia as well.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still clinging on. Officially he is at around 24.6N, 56.6W, heading WSW at 12mph. Winds are apparently 65mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 997mb. Hmm. Well, as with many other storms, I agree with the NHC on his name at least. ;-) He’s a bit of a messy system, so it’s not easy to figure out where the center is. It kinda looks like it is around 24N, 57W to me, which is a bit south of his current center and also south of the center of cone track. That pesky niggling voice in my head is telling me that if the center is not where they think it should be, that track might not be quite right. SO… by this time tomorrow I expect him to be somewhere closer to 25N, 61W heading WNW if he is on the forecast track.

He is pretty weak though. I don’t think his winds are 65mph. Here is the IR satellite image:



Not much convection really. I expect they will reduce his wind speed soon. Although his circulation is good, he is still in a region of decent wind shear at the moment. However, it does look like that might weaken for a short time, in which case he’ll be looking a bit better by tomorrow.

That’s all I got for today. I’m traveling tomorrow (surprise!) to the lovely Keys, but will try and check in later in the day. Speaking of traveling, watch this super cool video (thanks to Sharon in Florida for sharing this): http://vimeo.com/27246366.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 2, Update A

I had a very nice weekend, and I understand that it was a breeze on Bermuda too (puns always intended ;-)). Steve on Bermuda says they didn’t get much of anything (“rain and a squall, but nothing of note”) as Ophelia, then officially a strong cat 3/cat 4 storm (!!), went by. I am not 100% convinced that she went up to a cat 4. But I am glad dinky little Bermuda was not too dashelled!

Hurricane Ophelia
At the moment she is officially a cat 1 storm (range: 74-95mph), with winds of 90mph. This might be a slight overestimate, because she doesn’t have an eye and has fairly weak convection, but I’d agree with a cat 1 status.



As you can see, the IR satellite image shows weak convection and the lack of an eye. She is currently at 42.4N, 59.8W, heading NNE at a rapid 33mph. Central pressure is 967mb. I agree with the forecast track which will take her to Newfoundland tonight/early tomorrow.

<science alert> In this case, I would say that although she is moving forward at a rapid pace, she is still a tropical storm. I have not always agreed with the assessment of a fast moving storm being tropical. The reason she is moving forward at such a rapid rate is because there is a region of high atmospheric pressure to her right and a region of low atmospheric pressure to her left, and she is caught between the two. Normally, storms only have the high atmospheric pressure (the Bermuda/Azores High) to move around, which is why they move at a nice stately pace in a clockwise manner around the Atlantic (my earlier blurb on the Bermuda/Azores High and its effects on storm track: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2011/08/tropical-storm-emily-august-3-update.html). However, at the moment Ophelia has a region of low atmosphere pressure to her left. In the northern hemisphere, things move anti-clockwise around low pressure systems. So essentially, she is being pushed by both the high and the low – it’s a double effect, which means she’s zooming along there. <end of science alert>

Tropical Storm Philippe
The force is strong with this one, but so too is the wind shear! He has circulation throughout the troposphere, and it is as strong as Ophelia’s in the lower levels. But he is under some considerable wind shear, so although he is trying and trying, he hasn’t yet managed to get to hurricane strength. He was close yesterday, when they increased his winds to 70mph, but the winds are back down to 50mph now. He is currently at 26.2N, 53.1W, officially moving WNW at 12mph (it looks like he’s actually moving W or WSW). Central pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. The convection is all on the south/southeast side of the center. It looks like wind shear will remain pretty decent, so it seems unlikely he’ll be a hurricane any time soon. The forecast track still has him making a sharpish right turn on Tuesday/Weds:



This is a likely scenario, but the data I have is not good enough for me to be able to determine that for myself. The reason this is likely is because that low pressure that is to the left of Ophelia is moving eastwards and so the ‘plan’ is that it should make room for Philippe to turn to the NE quite quickly once it gets into the Atlantic.

That’s it for now. Time to get ready for a fun-filled work week ahead! Woo-hoo.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: October 1, Update A

Welcome to October… only another TWO months of the hurricane season left to go! Ha.

Hurricane Ophelia
Officially she is at 29.5N, 62.9W, heading N at 21mph. Winds are still 120mph, so she’s a mid-level cat 3 storm (range: 111-130mph) and the central pressure is 952mb. It looks like she’s far enough to the east of Bermuda that they won’t get any hurricane level winds (74 mph or higher), but they will get tropical storm conditions. It looks like they have already had some rain from a rain band (according to satellite images). Hurricane force winds extend out to about 40 miles from the center.

I agree with the NHC on her forecast track:



Although she has a lovely eye (satellite images below) and excellent circulation, the convection is pretty low for a cat 3 as you can see in the IR satellite image (there is none of that really strong red or grey colouring that indicate really tall thunder clouds/deep convection), so it is possible she might actually be strong cat 2.



Last night the most important thing on Steve’s mind was: “ the Australian Rules Football grand final. Starts in about 3/4 hour. Collingwood play Geelong.” Sounds er… fascinating. ;-)

Tropical Storm Philippe
Officially he is at 24.8N, 48W, moving WNW at 9mph. Winds are still estimated to be 50mph, with an estimated central pressure of 1004mb. You’ll be pleased to know his official location today passes my quality controls, so I agree with the NHC on that. J I think he might be a tad weaker than 50mph, but it still means he is a weak Tropical Storm, so that’s all groovy.

His forecast track looks very silly at the moment, with an acute right turn in his track on Tuesday:



As I said yesterday, this is because the models are essentially basing this on him heading towards the largest low out there… Ophelia. There is a physical reason to do this and it’s not just a whimsical quirk of the models; It is because she will erode the high pressure he is stuck in. I don’t have the ability at the moment to say how much and how effective that will be by Tuesday, so for now, we’ll just keep watching him struggle to keep going. Although water temperatures are a lovely 29 deg C, and Philippe has more warm water under the ocean he is hanging out over than Ophelia does, he is facing considerable more wind shear in the atmosphere than she is, which is why he is struggling.

That’s it for now. More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 30, Update A

Oh great googliemooglies and blisterin’ barnacles!! Bermudians, I hope you are ready! Ophelia exceeded everyone’s expectations today.

Hurricane Ophelia
In my opinion I think the official forecast has been underestimating her for days, but none of us were expecting her to get quite this strong. Officially she is now a mid-sized cat 3 and a very good looking storm with 120mph winds (cat 3 range: 111-130mph). The eye has been clear and steady for hours, so she might actually be closer to a cat 4 I think. Here are visible and IR satellite images of the Atlantic:





Despite this being a night-time view, doesn’t Ophelia look good? We can see Bermuda is just on the northwestern edge of the outer cloud bands.

Although she is strong, there are some things that are working in Bermuda’s favour:

1.Currently her convection is not as strong as it could be – you can see stronger convective activity just north of Cuba, with that area of red in the IR image. Remember, red means that the cloud tops are cold, which means they are deep, and usually have strong thunderstorms with possible tornados thrown in here and there.

2.There is still a bit of wind shear acting on her, and you can see that because she’s not completely circular, but has a streaming mass of clouds to the northeast.

3.She will pass to the east of the island. Although the NHC did not officially shift her to a Northward track until today, she’s been heading North since yesterday from what I’ve seen, which is why her track (and the forecast track) has been shifting to the east of the forecast since yesterday. The unknown part is how much of her will clip Bermuda. Hopefully it’ll be just a bit breezy tomorrow, with a couple of pockets of rain. If you look at the IR satellite, you can see a front that is moving off the US… also heading in Bermuda’s direction. They might get clouds from that if they don’t have much from Ophelia… but at least it won’t be as windy. Meteorologically speaking, it’s all very interesting stuff!

I’ve heard from Steve on Bermuda. They have been preparing – the usual drill. Wrap things in tarps, have a drink, move things away from windows, get the candles, have a drink, make sure there is enough water, beer, wine, ice cream, have a drink, batteries for the radio, matches etc. (umm… that’s my preparation list anyway ;-)). He’d like to know if anyone has got any ideas on where to park the car?

She is currently at 25.9N, 63W and is doing a good job at following that center of cone track (now) – only moving slightly east of that center line. She is moving rapidly northward at 16mph, and has a minimum pressure of 956mb. Interestingly, the lower level convergence and upper level divergence are not as strong as they could be (or were yesterday and earlier today), which might be an indication that she might weaken as she gets closer to Bermuda (I’m not sure of this though – it could be a blip). Water temperatures for both storms are around 27-29 deg C; certainly warm enough to sustain them. Ophelia should pass Bermuda late tomorrow afternoon.

Tropical Storm Philippe
In comparison, Philippe looks like a baby. However, you can see (in the IR satellite image) that his convection is stronger than Ophelia’s, even if his structure or circulation is not as well developed. He is under considerably more wind shear than his bigger sister, and it looks like that will persist for a while. Officially he is at around 23.5N, 46.2W, moving NW at 13mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure of 1004mb. I am not sure he’s moving quite that fast, but the location and direction are about right. This morning the NHC wrote in their 11am advisry: “FINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.” This confused me, because I saw a clear center yesterday. Maybe they don’t look at their own satellite images? And the ‘previously estimated center dissipated and a new center formed’? Really? Tut tut tut. Obviously they don’t read my wonderfully enlightening blog (ahem, probably just as well really ;-))! Their ‘estimated’ center looked off to me a couple of days ago… I think they were finally beginning to move in the right direction on this one yesterday evening.

I see they finally moved his forecast track so it’s making more of a beeline for Bermuda. And why not? They are already prepared for stormy weather so what’s one more, hey? ;-) Actually, part of this is because the forecast track is following Ophelia, which is the biggest low in the Atlantic at the moment. The models will have him track towards that beacon of lowness (not a technical term! ;-)). The actual track is a little tricky for me to see, because he is surrounded by high pressure again and because the models are following Ophelia (and he will try and follow her too by the way). Maybe tomorrow or the following day it will become clearer. The NHC think he will have deteriorated into a Tropical Depression by Monday anyway.

For those whose interest was piqued by the science research cruise out there… an update from Dale on the JOIDES Resolution (which was drilling at around 22.7N, 46W): “To move out of Philippe's path we moved NE yesterday from early morning until late in the evening on a hdg of ~44 degrees, this morning we are on a heading of 145 degrees to get behind Philippe and move back onto the drill site. Colleagues on the Canary Islands report a dust storm impacting their location this morning and predict it will be over us sometime tomorrow evening around 1800 hours. So far I collected a number of microorganisms from the atmosphere. Also looking at the influence of aerosol deposition on microbial communities in surface waters...seas have been relatively smooth so far..........” Thanks Dale!

Please stay safe on Bermuda. Send me updates if you are able. I’ll check in and see what’s what tomorrow morning too.

There will be more tomorrow. Bye for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------

Hurricane Ophelia and Tropical Storm Philippe: September 29, Update A

Ophelia says: “September 29 is National Coffee Day. I had 12 cups today. Can you tell?” ;-)

And here are some interesting US coffee factoids for all you coffee beans out there: http://www.livescience.com/16297-coffee-facts-national-coffee-day-infographic.html

What I want to know is when is it National Tea Day? Gosh darn it.

Hurricane Ophelia
She put on a good show today and pulled herself together to become our next hurricane this afternoon. She is currently at about 21.9N, 62.3W, and looking like she’s heading northward to me, which means she is slightly east of the forecast track at the moment. Officially she’s moving NNW at 9mph. If she carries on northward, there is a chance that she’ll miss Bermuda and skirt to the east of the island, however at the moment they are in the cone of whiteness and should be getting ready.

Winds are now at 85mph, so she’s a mid-size category 1 (range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 984mb. She did develop an eye for a short while a couple of hours ago, which indicates that the winds are, indeed, probably closer to the 90mph range. Her circulation is very strong in the lower troposphere, and there is a pretty nice signal in the upper troposphere as well. I have no doubts that she’s a hurricane, and agree with the NHC in their analysis today (about Ophelia anyway). Both the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those?) are also really good. Her convection is not as strong as I’ve seen in other category 1 storms, however it is fluctuating, so I’m not placing too much emphasis on that for now. She is definitely a solid cat 1 storm. There is a bit of wind shear, but she’s strong enough that it won’t have too much of an impact. However, as she moves north the water temperatures cool from the current 27-28 deg C, so I don’t know if she will really get much bigger than the forecast cat 1.

I heard from Steve on Bermuda. He is very concerned that she’ll get there on Saturday night. The biggest problem he is facing is that the rain will water down his beer (having never been to Bermuda, I assume this is because Bermudian pubs don’t have roofs?). Watered down beer… isn’t that called American beer? (I’m not a beer drinker, I just repeat what I’m told…).

Tropical Storm Philippe
As much as I agree with the NHC on their analysis of Ophelia throughout the day today, I have to say I disagree with what they said about poor Philippe. Just because he’s farther away doesn’t mean he’s any less important. Poor fella.

I’m not convinced his center has been in the correct location for the bulk of today. At the 5am advisory he was still too far south. Officially he was at 17.8N, 41.7W moving WNW at 13mph. At the 11am advisory, he was at 18.6N, 42.6W, moving NW at 13mph. Here are two visible satellite snapshots, one at 13:15UTC, which is about 8.15am EST, and the other at 18:15UTC which is about 1.15pm EST:



In the earlier image, I don’t see his center near 18N, 41.7W… it looks closer to 19N if anything. In the second image it looks like it is closer to 20N. At 5pm they had him at 20.2N, 43.6W, which I think was far more reasonable, although he was still heading NW at 13 mph. I don’t think he’s heading NW, but is moving WNW at the moment. Now he looks like he is around 21.2N, 44.0W and heading westwardish (officially he is still heading NW at 13mph).

Winds are 45mph, central pressure is 1004mb. I agree with this overall intensity estimate… his convection is pretty weak, and his circulation is strong only in the lower half of the troposphere. However, I think his winds are a bit stronger than 45mph. His upper divergence and lower convergence is very good. I think there is room for him to improve because wind shear looks like it might decrease for a short while and, if he continues westward(ish), he is heading towards an area of warmer water (28-29 deg C, instead of his current 27-28 deg C).

I received this report from Dale, a scientist, who is sampling dust (remember the Saharan Air Layer that was so instrumental earlier in this season) on a Research Vessel in the Atlantic: “Philippe was heading right for us... we were at ~46W, 22N...thought I was going to get the opportunity to sample the aerobiology of a storm eye...that would have been great.....but no, the JOIDES Resolution is currently underway on a NE course to get out if Philippes way...have been underway since early this morning moving at about 21 k/hr...plan is to stop at some point late tonight and the turn around and head back to the drill sites....currently the seas are smooth with a light swell....nice enough to water ski”.

Yup, if they had stayed at around 22N, 46W, it would have been a rather interesting expedition. In case you are wondering, the JOIDES Resolution that he mentions is a Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel. “JOIDES” is an acronym and stands for Joint Oceanographic Institutions for Deep Earth Sampling (speaking from experience, let me tell you that it’s a fine art to get a good science-acronym-name… I have to say, I’m pretty rubbish at it). The “Resolution” part is in honour of the HMS Resolution, Captain James Cook’s vessel from the 1770s. Just in case you missed my rather BIG clue earlier (hint: ‘Deep Sea Drilling Research Vessel’), the JOIDES Resolution drills in the deep sea (well, it drills into the earth under the deep sea). J The samples of earth it collects are called ‘cores’, and they are analyzed back in labs to figure out the past history of our fabulous planet. Of course, a research cruise can have other things going on as well, such as atmospheric sampling of dust and microbes (Dale’s work), or running away from Tropical Storms.... ;-) You can find out more for yourself here: http://joidesresolution.org/, including cool pictures!

Toodles!
J.

p.s. thanks to Gene in Florida for getting the report to me from Dale in the Atlantic).

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------