Sunday, August 23, 2015

Tropical Storm Danny, Tropical Storm Kilo, and the blobette: August 23, Update A

Tropical Storm Danny. Hurray! That's much better than a major hurricane! :-)

He is currently at 15.8N, 58.1W, heading due W at 15mph:

The models did correctly forecast the high pressure would turn his track to the west, which is great! This is further proof that the track forecast has improved for a ~2 day lead time! The intensity is still fairly rubbish, but once the NHC improve on that, I can 'retire' and become rich and famous by posting funny videos of cats instead. ;-) 

You can see the center of circulation in the satellite image above, as the clouds are mostly to the north and east. The convection is still quite strong, and as it is to the north and east, the VIs and other islands will get some rain and possibly a bit of thundery weather, but not so much of the sustained strong winds. 

The forecast track takes him on a WNW path once he enters the Caribbean. This may shift slightly to the south, but I'll go with it in general. He is leaving the area of stronger wind shear, however his interactions with the island will keep his intensity low. I don't think he will completely vanish before crossing the Leeward Islands though, but it is unlikely he will intensify further. 

Now, there is a blobette in the Atlantic. She's at around 13N, 36W (the bunch of clouds to the south and east of Danny) and is not yet officially a Tropical Depression (although she does have enough circulation in the lower troposphere to be a non-named TD!): 

I'll have a look at her properly once she's done her hair and make-up! ;-)

Meanwhile... over here in the central Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Kilo. I didn't think you would be interested in this one, but apparently Dan P. is on Maui too! (by the way, we were the ones hanging off the cliff on Hana Highway yesterday... "guard rails", huh... ;-)...

So, for anyone in Hawaii: unless you are staying inside with the curtains closed, you may have noticed it is a little cloudier today. This is courtesy of TS Kilo, who is currently centered somewhere around 15N, 164W I think:

You can see that the clouds are streaming off the storm because of wind shear (we are the little pink islands to the top right of the IR loop above). TS Kilo is to our southwest, but is expected to curve to the north and then east:

If anything, it may clip the northern end of the island chain next week, so anyone on the Big Island (Hawaii), Maui, Ohau etc. should be fine. It may be a bit cloudier, more rain, and thundery weather (like we had last night) for the next few days, so not quite as spectacularly scenic as it would be on a sunny day, but the surf should be fun! And what more could you ask for in a 'rainforest' than buckets of rain? :-)

That's it for now. The red flag just went up on 'my' beach here. Guess that means no snorkeling today... time to put the wellies on. ;-)


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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