Saturday, September 02, 2017

Hurricane Irma: September 2, Update A

The Hashtag Panel is done (yay!) – and tomorrow we can share the trailer with everyone! J And that leaves just enough time for a short update today…

Meanwhile, back in the Atlantic, Hurricane Irma is currently at 18.3N, 46.2W, heading W at 14mph. Her winds are officially estimated at be 110mph, which makes her a strong cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Central pressure is estimated to be 973mb. Tomorrow the storm will be close enough that they may be able to send a plane in to get a better idea of the wind speed.

I think a cat 2 is not too bad of an estimate, although she may be weaker than 110mph. Her eye didn’t really develop well at all today and she is still moving through that last sliver of Saharan Air Layer:
She’ll easily get through this by tomorrow, and then I expect she will start to intensify again because the circulation throughout the troposphere is pretty robust. Also, she is a very good-looking storm:

The track takes her on a WSW turn – actually I think she is already on this… at least it looks like that to me from the satellite imagery:
I would agree with this general track for the next couple of days. There is still some uncertainty on where she will go – she can go anywhere in that cone, not just the middle part of it, and the wider the cone, the more uncertain the forecasted track is.

If I were on the islands, I would be getting ready just in case. It will be a day or two before we will know for sure if she will avoid them all or not, because she is going to do that squiggle (technical term – of course! ;-)) to the south and that sort of curve adds a level of uncertainty. 

More tomorrow!
Toodle pips!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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