Hurricane Ophelia: October 13, Update A

Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. Has it only been two days when last we met? O wonderful, wonderful, and most wonderful wonderful! In honour of Ophelia, a tropical topical quiz for you lies herein - how many Shakespeare quotes can you catch in this post? J

And so, once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more! It's time to talk hurricanes. Ophelia has achieved the glass of fashion in the storm world, and is now a fully-fledged little Tempest in the form of yet another cat 2 storm.

Since yesterday we find though she be but little, she is fierce. She has 100mph winds, and a central pressure of 971mb, which makes her a weak to mid-size cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). She’s at 32.3N, 31.8W, heading ENE at 13mph. She has had a more-or-less pretty consistent eye over the last two days, which does indicate at least 90 mph winds, but there are more things in heaven and earth and because she is over cool water (cooler than 26.5 deg C) there isn’t as much convection as we would expect with such a storm:

However, all that glisters is not gold and I don’t think she is quite a cat 2 storm because there is very little vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere. Why, it appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours. Here’s the vorticity map from the mid-level (500mb) where you can clearly see a lovely signal:

And the upper level (200mb), which has a very slight circulation at that level:

She is still on track to pass close to/just south of the Azores tomorrow on her way to Ireland and the royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle, Britain on Monday:

But once you get there, I think, Ophelia, Scotland hath foisons to fill up your will, and you won’t be much more than a weak tropical storm when you leave, if that.

There is some wind shear between Ophelia and Ireland, and of course the water is chilly, so she may not even actually be a hurricane by the time she gets there, but it will still definitely be a 'bit' on the windy side. For those of you in the Azores/Ireland/Scotland/Wales, and even this blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England, do not compare Ophelia to a summer's day. You may be saying a plague upon this howling! They are louder than the weather or our office.

Now, where shall we three meet again in thunder, lightning, or in rain? When the hurlyburly 's done, when the battle 's lost and won. Oh, ok, I’ll try and be back at least once before then! ;-)

Answers on the quotes in the next post! How many did you get? 

J. 

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.