Tropical Depression Sally, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 16, Update A

Well things are looking a little better - at least for a minute or two here....

Paulette is now an extra-tropical system - meaning she's merged into a low pressure front and is being whisked away, taking all her energy off to the northeast. Farewell, Paulette. 

Tropical Depression Sally

She slowly lumbered onto land early this morning (4:45am) as a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (central pressure 965mb) near Gulf Shores in Alabama. She's now inland and a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 995mb. I think she may be a little stronger than this - a Tropical Storm - as the vorticity (circulation) is still well developed over the entire lower half of the troposphere. She'll get to North Carolina and vanish by Friday evening:

Fortunately her convection has decreased quite a lot since she moved over land, which means that she'll be mostly refreshingly rainy on her way up:

She did quite a bit of damage in Alabama and Florida as we expected she would because she has been moving so slowly along that coast - imagine essentially being under a hurricane for over 1.5 days! In addition to around 3 ft of rainfall (in some places), it looks like storm surge reached 5.5ft in Pensacola...  

Quelle mess!  This will be my last update on Sally. 

Hurricane Teddy

He is currently at 17.8N, 51.1W, heading NW at 13mph. Still generally heading towards Bermuda for Sunday/Monday. I think he may eventually pass to the west, but it's far too soon to say and the NHC have better data and models than are at my fingertips. Get ready Bermuda! 

His winds are now 90mph, central pressure is 976mb, which makes him a strong cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). This seems like it's getting closer to his intensity. I still think it's an underestimate though... his circulation is strong throughout the entire troposphere, but his circulation is extremely strong for a cat 1 hurricane: 

I would say he's more likely a cat 2, maybe closer to cat 3 by now actually. Water is warm, with the upper ~100m warmer than 26 deg C, and there is not much wind shear. 

Tropical Storm Vicky

She's still hanging on and is currently at 21.6N, 35.8W and is chasing after Teddy because she's heading W at 10mph. Winds are 40mph, central pressure is 1008mb, which makes her barely a Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). She still has circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, so I agree with her Tropical Storm status. If she's a Tropical Depression tomorrow, I won't bother with her anymore so this may be the last on Vicky too.

Gulf of Mexico Blob

They are pretty adamant that there's something here. This blob now has a 50% chance of developing in the next 2 days. There's some circulation in the very lowest level of the troposphere in the southern Bay of Campeche, and there's a smaller amount of circulation in the mid-troposphere in the very western Bay of Campeche that extends south from Texas. The two areas don't overlap and are really not well formed. However, there is some fairly decent convection (which I can't seem to access anymore due to a technical glitch... maybe I've been cut off? ;-)). It would be Wilfred if it does develop. 

Atlantic Blobette (the orange one) (I'm ignoring the 10% yellow for now).

This one has a 40% chance of developing. The circulation is actually better developed than the Gulf Blob, but there isn't as much convection at the moment. 

This may be Alpha if we get there. There are no storms with names beginning with 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'. Actually, there are no storms beginning with the letters 'Q' or 'U' either because, apparently, it's too difficult to find enough names beginning with all these letters. And the suggestions start rolling in 3, 2, 1.... 

Quentin, Quinn, Queenie, Quinlan... 

Ulysses, Ursula, Uma, Uriah...

Xavian, Xander, Xavier, Xyla...

Yvette, Yuliana, Yanis, Ysabella, Yvonne... 

Zoe, Zander, Zara, Zachary... 

Anyone want to petition the WMO to add these letters? I'm sure we can collectively come up with more than 8 names that would work for the Atlantic. 

More tomorrow!

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricanes Paulette and Sally, Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky, and the Blobs: September 15, Update A

Ok, can someone please take the crayons away from the NHC? They are just scribbling on the map now...

Still, at least they took Rene off the map finally. They should also remove the yellow blob in the Gulf - there is nothing there! No circulation, a few clouds. And as for the 10% yellow blob that formed in the northern Atlantic - AT 47 deg N?? That is not tropical. The water there is over 3 degrees cooler than anything a TROPICAL Storm needs to even develop!

That leaves two actual hurricanes, two actual Tropical Storms, and one actual Blob. 

Hurricane Sally

Starting with the troublemaker of today, Sally is at 29.8N, 87.8W, heading NNE at 2mph.

She's been causing quite a few problems as she continue to head excruciatingly slowly north-eastward along the northern Gulf coast. We see a stationary or slow moving storm almost every year since time began, it's just unfortunate that it happens to be so close to the coast this time. A couple of years ago, Hurricane Dorian did the same thing over the Bahamas. Anyway, landfall is looking like it'll be very near the AL/FL border tomorrow morning. I'm not sure she's going to be moving very fast anywhere tomorrow either, so she may not be as far along inland as the forecast currently calls for, however it looks like there may be some more wind shear so she should weaken fairly quickly once she's over land. 

Winds are 85mph, central pressure is 972mb, which means she's a mid-sized cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). However, her impact is going to be worse than we would normally see with a cat 1 storm of this size that just moves inland at a 'normal' faster pace. In this case, because she's so close to the coast, she's been pushing water onto the land on the right of the center as well as dumping rain along the coast.  She continues to have a lot of convection:  

That red stuff... that's strong thunderstorms and tornado-generating weather. It looks like an eye is forming, which does indicate slight strengthening - perhaps to 90mph (which is the wind speed around when we see an eye in storms).

You can see the water piling up if you look at the data on the tidesandcurrent website. Here's the water levels in Pensacola today: 

Water levels are over 4ft above normal now, compared to almost 3 ft above normal yesterday. 

Hurricane Paulette

She's at 40.7N, 52.4W, heading ENE at 28mph and is still forecast to make a sharp right turn on Thursday. 

Winds are 100mph, central pressure is 966mb, so she's officially a cat 2 storm (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph). I think she's weaker than this - especially given that the upper troposphere has less circulation than Hurricane Sally now! She may pass close to the Azores, but I'll just leave this one for now as there is much to do today.

Tropical Storm Teddy

He's almost at hurricane strength now, which is not a surprise. I think today he's a fully fledged hurricane as the circulation is really strong in the upper troposphere (as strong as Sally's). He's at 15N, 48.3W, heading NW at 9mph and heading for Bermuda. 

Winds are officially 70 mph, central pressure is 992mb, which makes him a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). As I said, I think he's already a hurricane. In addition to the circulation his convection is a lot sharper now: 

He almost has an eye, which suggests to me that his winds are closer to 90mph!

Tropical Storm Vicky

She's still hanging in there, despite the strong wind shear. She's at 21.6N, 33.1W, heading WNW at 12mph. 

Winds are estimated to be 50mph, central pressure is 1004mb, which means she's still a Tropical Storm. There is still some circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, but it's not great in the middle levels and nothing in the upper levels. So I'd say she's on the decline. I think if anything, she's barely a Tropical Storm - perhaps with winds closer to 40mph. There is very little convection - it looks like she's being impacted not only by wind shear, but also by Tropical Storm Teddy: 

Ah, and that leaves that final orange blob in the Atlantic. It's currently got a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Next name is Wilfred. 

I do have to run and get one or two other things done today before bedtime, but tomorrow I expect to see less of Vicky, more of Teddy, Sally should be over land (finally), and Paulette will be Paulette.  

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricanes Paulette and Sally, Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky, and some Blobs: September 14, Update A

All sorts of storms out there today!

We don't frequently see this (thankfully) but this isn't the worst it's ever been out there. For example, in August 1995, there were five named storms in the Atlantic. As for hurricanes, there are only two today... in 1892 (before satellites or planes) and 1998, there were 4 hurricanes at the same time! We are now in the 'V's already, but we went into the Greek alphabet in 2005, and we probably would have done in 1933 when 20 storms were recorded without using planes or satellites (how many may have been missed?). Still... it's a bit of a long update (with lots of pictures), so I better get on with it. :-) 

Hurricane Paulette

She's currently at 35.7N, 62.3W, heading NE at 17mph and she'll continue in this direction until she hits that invisible force field over the Atlantic and makes a sharp right turn....

She is now well past Bermuda, where she stopped for a quick visit at around 2am local time when the northern eyewall started to make landfall with winds of 90mph which made her a strong cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). I think they lost power fairly quickly, so it really was a dark'n'stormy night! By 5am, the entire island of Bermuda was within the eye... 

...and by 11am she was leaving the island, although her winds had increased to 100mph by that time.

She is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph, central pressure 965mb (cat 2 range: 96 -110mph). Her circulation is still very strong throughout the troposphere and you can see she has still got some convection, so I'd agree with this category of storm. 

There is some wind shear which we can see as the clouds are pulled towards the northeast. Until that vorticity starts to decline, she'll remain a hurricane. 

Hurricane Sally

That expansion we saw in the satellite imagery from yesterday's post pushed her over the edge and into hurricane land. She's currently at 28.9N, 87.6W heading WNW at a very slow 3mph. 

Her track was shifted to the east, so landfall is now perhaps in Alabama - but this is really tricky to say so assume she's going to make landfall anywhere from FL to MS. Her landfall time has also been shifted to Wednesday morning - partly because of the change in track, but also because she's slowed right down and at 3mph which means she's practically stalled! A stalled storm is not good news for a couple of reasons. First, especially over or near land, it means she'll continue to dump rain and push water onto the coastline. And Second, stalled storms are notoriously difficult to forecast as far as the track goes, alas. 

 <Science Alert!> Why would a storm stall? You have heard of atmospheric high pressure and low pressure, right?  Imagine them as hills and valleys in the atmosphere, except made of air. Now imagine the storm is a ball on this undulating field. If the path ahead is low pressure, it's like a downhill gradient and the ball will happily keep on rolling forward at a decent speed. If the path in front is high pressure, it's an uphill gradient and the ball (storm) will slow down (which is what we are seeing with Sally), or maybe move in a different direction until it finds an easier path downhill. This is why the track of a storm has so many wriggles (technical jargon ;-)). 

But if the ball gets stuck in a 'dip', it is surrounded by high pressure on all sides, and it becomes difficult for the storm to move in any direction, so it will stop where it is until the pressure fields around it change (which they eventually will do). Of course, as pressure fields change, the longer range track forecast will also change, even though the storm may not have moved far. So not only do forecasters need to predict the track of the storm, but they need to predict the entire surrounding pressure field (which means predicting the entire world's atmospheric pressure field as it is all connected) and how it will change before the storm moves again. That's where computer models really kick in - these are massive undertakings. <End Science Alert!>

So, although the track has shifted to the east... landfall could really be anywhere within that cone of uncertainty! 

She's already dumped tonnes of water over FL, AL, GA, MS and will continue to do so for at least another couple of days. Storm surge is getting higher along the eastern side as the winds are pushing water onshore. Looking at the tidesandcurrents website, Pensacola for example, is already over 2.7ft above predicted levels: 

She has good circulation throughout the troposphere as well so I agree she's a hurricane, but not quite as strong as Hurricane Paulette whose circulation is much better. Here are the vorticity maps to show the circulation from the lowest level (850mb): 

the mid-level (500mb): 

and the highest levels of the troposphere (200mb):

You can see that Paulette is definitely the best structured storm - she's white hot in the lower levels compared to Sally. 

As we saw yesterday, she had a LOT of rain and thundery weather in her, most of which she seems to have kindly bestowed upon FL/AL/MS/GA:

She still has quite a bit left in her, but she is over very warm water and she expanded so quickly because it looks like she went over an area where the warm water was deeper. There is some wind shear that is resulting in the clouds being pulled to the northeast and we can see that because there is more convective activity to the north and east of her center. She may get a little stronger, but it does look like there's more wind shear once she finally gets closer to the coast.

You guys up there... it's going to be really really soggy! 

Tropical Storm Teddy 

He is currently at 13.2N, 45W, heading W at 13mph. They expect him to make a move to the WNW any second now... 

... and towards Bermuda. But I'm not sure anyone on Bermuda has power at the moment, so hopefully they aren't too alarmed yet. We'll see if that track holds - too soon to say as the island is over 5 days away. 

Winds are 50mph, central pressure is 1002mb, which means he's officially a weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). However, I think he is a lot stronger than this. I think he's probably at 65-70mph. There is circulation throughout the troposphere as we can see in the vorticity maps. His convection is a little spotty at the moment, so I can see why he's not a fully fledged hurricane, but I think he is close... 

Tropical Storm Vicky

She's at 19.5N, 29.9W, heading NE at 7mph. 

Winds are officially also 50mph (just as they are with Teddy), central pressure is 1000mb, but her circulation is weaker and she is really getting hit by high wind shear:

She's trying, but hasn't quite got the convection. I'm actually surprised that they have her and Teddy at the same level! Clearly they are very different and he's much stronger. They think the wind shear will stop her from developing too much. 

As for the Blob in the Gulf - they should just remove that. It's a non-entity. They should also remove Rene. And that leaves the Blob in the Atlantic that just came off Africa - that has a 30% chance of development. It does have some circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere, so keep that, by all means. 

That'll do for today!

Toodle pip,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Depression 20, and assorted Blobs and Blobettes: September 13, Update A

Hmm... Seven rings... anyone got the One Ring to Rule Them All? That would be really 'handy' these days. ;-) (all puns intended).

First, the one's I'm ignoring today... 

- Rene was SO yesterday's news (for anyone called Rene - it's not you, it's me ;-)). 

- The Gulf of Mexico blob (yellow) is still hanging out with a 10% chance of development. There is some circulation but no convection, and the circulation isn't very well developed in the lowest levels of the troposphere. 

- The NHC say that the Blob over Africa has a 0% chance of developing in the next 48 hours... I really think they like that yellow colour - it's a happy colour, isn't it? We could all use a dose of happy yellow. 

- The Atlantic Blob has a 70% chance of formation. It's still connected to TD 20 as far as the vorticity (circulation) goes so it's not quite there yet. There is some convection, but as we have other storms closer to land, I'll punt on this one until tomorrow. 

There, that leaves only three out of seven now.

Hurricane Paulette

She's currently at 31.4N, 64.0W, heading NW at 13mph.

Her outer bands have already reached Bermuda (that little white dot to the northwest of the storm - blink and you'll miss it) and her eyewall will be there soon. Here's a satellite image from earlier today.

She's currently a mid-level cat 1 storm with winds of 85mph, central pressure 976mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). The dry air is having some impact in keeping her intensification a little in check and has taken a bunch out of her in terms of her convection which is a lot less than yesterday, as you can see in the imagery below (which is more recent than the image above):

The eye is not well formed and that dry air continues to get pulled into the system. The weaker convection will help in terms of the impact of the storm, although it will still be quite wet and windy and there will be some thundery weather with possible tornadoes. The NHC think she'll intensify to a very strong cat 2 in the next 12 hours, but I am not so sure given that she's struggling a little now, has still to fully interact with Bermuda, and there is some mid-level shear ahead of her. But that intensification should (hopefully) be after the bulk of her has passed by Bermuda. Stay safe out there my friends!

Tropical Storm Sally

Sally is at 28.2N, 86.2W, heading NW at 8mph and landfall is still on Tuesday, although her center was a little off and so the track may shift to the east (towards Alabama) from the one in this forecast... 

She is now a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph, central pressure of 996mb (TS range: 39-73mph). 

She is over warm water (warmer than 29 deg C) and the wind shear has vanished, and we can see that in the satellite imagery as she transitions from something that looks like a soggy mess to something that is definitely looking like she's just had a couple of strong beverages:

So she may be making landfall on Tuesday, but her rains and thundery weather will be affecting the northern Gulf coastline, especially Florida and Alabama, starting well... now. She will get stronger as she slowly moves north without the wind shear and with warm sea surface waters. The NHC expect her to be a cat 1 storm on landfall with winds of 90mph.

Moorings on the West Florida Shelf that are operated by the University of South Florida and are part of the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing System (actually, the same moorings I used to get my PhD data a <ahem> "couple" of years ago <ahem>) showed a dip in pressure to 1005mb and wind speeds over 35mph as she passed near by earlier today. As an aside, I have to say, it's pretty cool to be sitting in smokey Los Angeles and to still be able to look in on data from moorings that were so pivotal in my being here! :-)  

Speaking of data, I mentioned some data being gathered under Hurricane Laura a couple of weeks ago. That effort continues and there are two underwater vehicles (gliders) currently in the Gulf measuring the upper ocean temperatures that will be in the path of this storm as well as she passes overhead. This sort of data will help scientists to work out some of the dynamics and feed into improving the forecast models in the future. You can see the glider locations on the map on this page: https://gandalf.gcoos.org/.

For those of you along that northern Gulf coast - more than anything, it's going to be very wet over the next few days! 

Tropical Depression 20

He is still officially a TD and is currently at 13N, 39W heading WNW at 15mph. 

Winds are 35mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1006mb, which makes him not quite a Tropical Storm yet. I think this is an underestimate. His circulation is quite strong throughout the troposphere, although it is still connected to the Atlantic Blob at the lower levels. His convection has also picked up... 

I would consider him a Tropical Storm at this point. 

Anyone found that One Ring yet? 

Until tomorrow!

Toodles,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Depressions Rene and 20, an Atlantic Blobette and a Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 12, Update A

Six storms a blowin', Five chances over 50%, Four already red, Three in the Atlantic, Two Tropical Depressions, and One Hurri-cane... On the seventh day of Christmas... Oh, sorry, wrong season. ;-)  

So, it's a bit busy out there. This week in September is, statistically the busiest in any Hurricane Season but I don't think I've seen quite this many at the same time before! And actually September 10th is the peak day... so it'll all quieten down after this week. Statistically speaking. Here's a figure that shows the distribution of the number of storms throughout the season (taken from data spanning 100 years): 

Hurricane Paulette

As expected, Paulette toppled over into Hurricane territory today, but is a very weak cat 1 with winds of 75 mph (cat 1 range: 74 - 95mph), central pressure 981mb. She is currently at 28.9N, 59.7W, heading WNW at 14mph and on track to get to Bermuda by Monday morning, although the dodgy weather and raindrops will be there Sunday night. The NHC expect her to be weak(ish) cat 2 when she gets to Bermuda with winds of around 100mph. 

She is slowly emerging from the wind shear she's been battling over the last couple of days which will allow her to strengthen. She certainly has a bit of convection, as we can see in this (still quite poor quality - I don't know what they have done to the algorithms but it's been particularly bad this season!) satellite imagery:

She is also over some warm water, so there's nothing there that will stop her from growing... BUT, there is some dry air. You can see both the wind shear with clouds streaming off to the northeast, and the dry air this in the imagery above as well as here:

This is the water vapor in the upper levels of the troposphere and that area of purple and white that is wrapping around to her north is the drier air. It's even more obvious as you go to the lowest regions of the troposphere:

So, if anything will help to keep her in check, this will be it if it can continue to wrap around and into her center - that's what we want to watch for in the next 12-18 hours. 

Her circulation is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is some in the upper troposphere as well although it's not quite contained as we see with stronger hurricanes, but she is definitely a hurricane.

Remember: listen to your local emergency managers - they know the lay of the land. And we generally say run from the water, hide from the wind - if you are in a flood-prone area, move inland or to higher ground if you can. Otherwise, hunker down. (This also applies to Tropical Storm Sally folks - especially if she brings water to New Orleans, of which parts are below sea level anyway). Be well out there! 

Tropical Storm Sally

Our Tropical Depression 19 is now Tropical Storm Sally and has crossed the very southern tip of Florida and is in the Gulf. She did track a little south of the forecast yesterday as she crossed Florida, but the eventual landfall end is still the central northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. She's at 26.7N, 83.4W, heading WNW at 8mph. 

It looks like she brought some rain to Florida today and will continue to do so tomorrow...

Winds are now 45mph, central pressure is 1003mb, which makes her a weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). Her circulation is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, in keeping with a Tropical Storm - although it's a little elongated in the middle level which indicates a weaker system because the vertical storm structure is a little wonky (technical jargon for 'wonky' ;-)). Here's the vorticity (circulation) map for the lowest level (850mb) and you can see all the storms marked: 

Here's the one from the middle level (500mb):

And here's the one from the upper level (200mb) for completeness:

She will be moving over water that is warmer than 29 deg C as she crosses the Gulf, so certainly enough to keep her fed, and as she moves away from Florida, the upper ~75-100 m will be warmer than 26 deg C. So the ocean won't inhibit her from slowly growing. There is also very little dry air in the atmosphere. The one thing she is battling is wind shear at the moment, which we can see as the convection is to the southeast of the center and some clouds are streaming to the southeast as well, but that looks like it will subside soon. It looks like her center may be a little south of the official location from the satellite imagery and the vorticity maps, but that could be because of this wind shear. To sum up, she will gradually get stronger as she moves farther into the Gulf. The NHC forecast her to be a mid-sized cat 1 at landfall. 

Tropical Depression Rene

I know I wasn't going to mention Rene again, but this one is just for the records. He's a Tropical Depression at 25.3N, 46.4W, heading NW at 13mph. Winds are only 30mph, central pressure is 1011mb. This time this is really the last note on him. 

Tropical Depression 20

This was the Atlantic Blob from yesterday. It's at 11.9N, 34.6W, heading WNW at 10mph.

Winds are 35mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb. There is pretty decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but I also see some circulation in the upper levels as well from the vorticity maps above. This indicates that he's already a Tropical Storm, but not quite a hurricane yet because the structure in the lower troposphere is elongated and still connected to the Atlantic Blobette (see below).  

Tomorrow this will be Tropical Storm Teddy (Bear). I don't think Teddy is a full first name... isn't it a nickname for Edward or Theodore? Anyway, they can't use Theodore though because it used to be on the list of Tropical Cyclone names and was retired after the 1993/94 season, when it was a cat 5 Cyclone with winds of 130mph (which we would consider a borderline cat 3/cat 4 Hurricane) that hit Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia in February of 1994. And they can't use Ted either because that was also retired following the 1976/77 season when it hit Queenland, Australia as a category 4 Cyclone in December on 1976 with winds of 115mph (which would be a weak cat 3 Hurricane). So, Teddy Bear it is I suppose. 

Atlantic Blobette

Hanging out just around the Cape Verde Islands at 15N, 24W, this blobette has a 50% chance of developing into something. It's moving WNW. As you can see from the vorticity maps above, there is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it's still attached to TD 20 and not as strong, so it's not quite at Tropical Depression level. There is some convection, as you can see from the satellite imagery below, and not much wind shear at the moment, so we'll see how quickly this becomes a TD. 

Gulf of Mexico Blob

This little yellow marker only has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours. There isn't any convection to speak of and the circulation is only in the very lowest levels of the troposphere, so this isn't even actually a bunch'o'clouds. I won't mention this again unless it looks like it'll develop into something. 

Phew. Don't know about you but I'm gonna need more ice cream... and cheese and wine... 

Ciao for now,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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