Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Hurricanes Paulette and Sally, Tropical Storms Teddy and Vicky, and the Blobs: September 15, Update A

Ok, can someone please take the crayons away from the NHC? They are just scribbling on the map now...

Still, at least they took Rene off the map finally. They should also remove the yellow blob in the Gulf - there is nothing there! No circulation, a few clouds. And as for the 10% yellow blob that formed in the northern Atlantic - AT 47 deg N?? That is not tropical. The water there is over 3 degrees cooler than anything a TROPICAL Storm needs to even develop!

That leaves two actual hurricanes, two actual Tropical Storms, and one actual Blob. 

Hurricane Sally

Starting with the troublemaker of today, Sally is at 29.8N, 87.8W, heading NNE at 2mph.

She's been causing quite a few problems as she continue to head excruciatingly slowly north-eastward along the northern Gulf coast. We see a stationary or slow moving storm almost every year since time began, it's just unfortunate that it happens to be so close to the coast this time. A couple of years ago, Hurricane Dorian did the same thing over the Bahamas. Anyway, landfall is looking like it'll be very near the AL/FL border tomorrow morning. I'm not sure she's going to be moving very fast anywhere tomorrow either, so she may not be as far along inland as the forecast currently calls for, however it looks like there may be some more wind shear so she should weaken fairly quickly once she's over land. 

Winds are 85mph, central pressure is 972mb, which means she's a mid-sized cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). However, her impact is going to be worse than we would normally see with a cat 1 storm of this size that just moves inland at a 'normal' faster pace. In this case, because she's so close to the coast, she's been pushing water onto the land on the right of the center as well as dumping rain along the coast.  She continues to have a lot of convection:  

That red stuff... that's strong thunderstorms and tornado-generating weather. It looks like an eye is forming, which does indicate slight strengthening - perhaps to 90mph (which is the wind speed around when we see an eye in storms).

You can see the water piling up if you look at the data on the tidesandcurrent website. Here's the water levels in Pensacola today: 

Water levels are over 4ft above normal now, compared to almost 3 ft above normal yesterday. 

Hurricane Paulette

She's at 40.7N, 52.4W, heading ENE at 28mph and is still forecast to make a sharp right turn on Thursday. 

Winds are 100mph, central pressure is 966mb, so she's officially a cat 2 storm (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph). I think she's weaker than this - especially given that the upper troposphere has less circulation than Hurricane Sally now! She may pass close to the Azores, but I'll just leave this one for now as there is much to do today.

Tropical Storm Teddy

He's almost at hurricane strength now, which is not a surprise. I think today he's a fully fledged hurricane as the circulation is really strong in the upper troposphere (as strong as Sally's). He's at 15N, 48.3W, heading NW at 9mph and heading for Bermuda. 

Winds are officially 70 mph, central pressure is 992mb, which makes him a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). As I said, I think he's already a hurricane. In addition to the circulation his convection is a lot sharper now: 

He almost has an eye, which suggests to me that his winds are closer to 90mph!

Tropical Storm Vicky

She's still hanging in there, despite the strong wind shear. She's at 21.6N, 33.1W, heading WNW at 12mph. 

Winds are estimated to be 50mph, central pressure is 1004mb, which means she's still a Tropical Storm. There is still some circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, but it's not great in the middle levels and nothing in the upper levels. So I'd say she's on the decline. I think if anything, she's barely a Tropical Storm - perhaps with winds closer to 40mph. There is very little convection - it looks like she's being impacted not only by wind shear, but also by Tropical Storm Teddy: 

Ah, and that leaves that final orange blob in the Atlantic. It's currently got a 50% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Next name is Wilfred. 

I do have to run and get one or two other things done today before bedtime, but tomorrow I expect to see less of Vicky, more of Teddy, Sally should be over land (finally), and Paulette will be Paulette.  

Ciao for now,


Twitter: jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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