Thursday, September 17, 2020

Tropical Depression Sally, Hurricane Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 16, Update A

Well things are looking a little better - at least for a minute or two here....

Paulette is now an extra-tropical system - meaning she's merged into a low pressure front and is being whisked away, taking all her energy off to the northeast. Farewell, Paulette. 

Tropical Depression Sally

She slowly lumbered onto land early this morning (4:45am) as a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (central pressure 965mb) near Gulf Shores in Alabama. She's now inland and a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 995mb. I think she may be a little stronger than this - a Tropical Storm - as the vorticity (circulation) is still well developed over the entire lower half of the troposphere. She'll get to North Carolina and vanish by Friday evening:

Fortunately her convection has decreased quite a lot since she moved over land, which means that she'll be mostly refreshingly rainy on her way up:

She did quite a bit of damage in Alabama and Florida as we expected she would because she has been moving so slowly along that coast - imagine essentially being under a hurricane for over 1.5 days! In addition to around 3 ft of rainfall (in some places), it looks like storm surge reached 5.5ft in Pensacola...  

Quelle mess!  This will be my last update on Sally. 

Hurricane Teddy

He is currently at 17.8N, 51.1W, heading NW at 13mph. Still generally heading towards Bermuda for Sunday/Monday. I think he may eventually pass to the west, but it's far too soon to say and the NHC have better data and models than are at my fingertips. Get ready Bermuda! 

His winds are now 90mph, central pressure is 976mb, which makes him a strong cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). This seems like it's getting closer to his intensity. I still think it's an underestimate though... his circulation is strong throughout the entire troposphere, but his circulation is extremely strong for a cat 1 hurricane: 

I would say he's more likely a cat 2, maybe closer to cat 3 by now actually. Water is warm, with the upper ~100m warmer than 26 deg C, and there is not much wind shear. 

Tropical Storm Vicky

She's still hanging on and is currently at 21.6N, 35.8W and is chasing after Teddy because she's heading W at 10mph. Winds are 40mph, central pressure is 1008mb, which makes her barely a Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-74mph). She still has circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, so I agree with her Tropical Storm status. If she's a Tropical Depression tomorrow, I won't bother with her anymore so this may be the last on Vicky too.

Gulf of Mexico Blob

They are pretty adamant that there's something here. This blob now has a 50% chance of developing in the next 2 days. There's some circulation in the very lowest level of the troposphere in the southern Bay of Campeche, and there's a smaller amount of circulation in the mid-troposphere in the very western Bay of Campeche that extends south from Texas. The two areas don't overlap and are really not well formed. However, there is some fairly decent convection (which I can't seem to access anymore due to a technical glitch... maybe I've been cut off? ;-)). It would be Wilfred if it does develop. 

Atlantic Blobette (the orange one) (I'm ignoring the 10% yellow for now).

This one has a 40% chance of developing. The circulation is actually better developed than the Gulf Blob, but there isn't as much convection at the moment. 

This may be Alpha if we get there. There are no storms with names beginning with 'X', 'Y', or 'Z'. Actually, there are no storms beginning with the letters 'Q' or 'U' either because, apparently, it's too difficult to find enough names beginning with all these letters. And the suggestions start rolling in 3, 2, 1.... 

Quentin, Quinn, Queenie, Quinlan... 

Ulysses, Ursula, Uma, Uriah...

Xavian, Xander, Xavier, Xyla...

Yvette, Yuliana, Yanis, Ysabella, Yvonne... 

Zoe, Zander, Zara, Zachary... 

Anyone want to petition the WMO to add these letters? I'm sure we can collectively come up with more than 8 names that would work for the Atlantic. 

More tomorrow!

Ciao for now,


Twitter: jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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