Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Hurricane Gordon and TD 8: September 13, Update A

Hurricane Gordon:

Gordon became a cute little hurricane overnight. I say 'cute' because
he's already moving towards the north and will hang out in the Atlantic
ocean, he has a nice circulation, and a nicely developed eye. His
sustained winds are near 90mph, which makes him a strong cat 1
(74-95mph) - and also means he intensified slightly faster than I
thought. The eye will be over slightly cooler waters of 27 degs C in
12-24 hours (currently in about 28 degs C) - he is not moving forward
very quickly (9mph). He will remain in a region of some wind shear but I
don't think the it is enough to stop him developing further. There will
be some intensification during the day, and it is possible that he will
become a cat 2 by the end of the day. If he stalls anytime in the next
48 hours, then there's a chance he will become even stronger.

TD 8:

Although this storm doesn't look as good as it did yesterday (i.e. i
can't find the center anymore), the circulation within the system has
improved. It is over warm waters (28-29 degs C), but that alone won't
be enough to make this intensify because it is also in a region of good
wind shear. Sometime in the next 24 hours I expect this to be a TS
because the wind shear will decrease, the ocean will be more conducive
to development. It's moving westward at a fast pace (17mph). The
forecast track has it going out to sea and staying north of the Leeward
Islands - this is still days away and I will have more confidence in
this in a couple of days.

Later gators.
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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