Thursday, September 21, 2006

Hurricane Helene: September 21, Update A

Helene is barely a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane now, with winds of 80mph
(cat 1: 74-95mph) so it looks like the conditions I laid out yesterday
that would inhibit this system proved their worth. I don't think she
will re-intensify and in the last advisory the hurricane center also
brought down their intensity estimates.

She's moving at a pretty good 13mph now and will soon (in a day) be over
cooler waters. She is still entraining dry air, there is still some good
wind shear affecting her outer bands.

I think there's a good possibility that she will be a tropical storm by
this time tomorrow - although we are again looking at a storm that will
become extratropical. Really not much more to say on this at the moment.

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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