Friday, September 15, 2006

Hurricane Gordon & TS Helene: September 15, Update A

Hurricane Gordon:

He's now a cat 2 storm and falling. The southwest side is getting eroded
(wind shear) and dry air is entering the system, the eye is no longer
visible although the center is still obvious, and cloud tops are
gradually getting warmer. He's still over water temps of 26 degs C.,
which will sustain him but not enough to intensify. He's in a region of
moderate wind shear, and is heading towards a region of increasing wind
shear. In a day or so, I would expect this storm to be down to a cat 1
at the most because of increasing wind shear and colder ocean temps. BUT
here's the catch, as with Florence, he might become an extratropical
storm in which case the physics are different, so it could be a storm
with strong winds even then.

TS Helene:

Not much change. Still a TS, max. sustained winds of about 45mph. She's
a large storm too, but just not very well organized. Waters are warm,
the wind shear is moderate. At the moment the cloud tops are quite high
for this storm, but that could be part of a cycle and may not be
sustained. There's a bit of dry air entering the system on the outer
edges, but it doesn't look like it's making it into the center. I think
this storm will start to get stronger soon.

And now for something almost completely different... some humor!
Regardless of your opinion on global warming, I hope you enjoy this:

It made me laugh.
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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