Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Tropical Storm Gordon & Hurricance Helene: September 20, Update A

Tropical Storm Gordon:
This system is weakening, and it's projected path suggests that it might
miss Spain but clip France as it heads to the UK. By the time it gets to
the UK it won't be very strong; just rain and some windy weather. So
really, no difference from usual weather conditions in England :)

Hurricane Helene:
She's still a strong cat 2 with winds of 110mph. She's made that
north-west turn, so it looks like she's following in Gordon's footsteps
and avoiding Bermuda. This system is still moving forward at a
medium-paced 9mph. The eye is no longer visible on the satellite
imagery. This might be a cycle the storm is going through, or it might
be the beginning of a longer (but slow) decline. There's a chance she
will intensify slightly, which would make her a weak cat 3 again. But,
there are clues in both the ocean and atmosphere that suggest otherwise.
These are:
1. Dry air is being entrained into the outer regions of this system.
2. Although she is over water temps of 28-29 deg C, the subsurface
depths at which 26 deg C water extends down to is declining, (which
means that the source of energy is being reduced) and will continue to
decline in the path that she is currently on.
3. She is entering a region of slightly stronger wind shear.
At the moment, these conditions are not strong enough to reduce her
intensity by much, but they are enough to possibly inhibit future
enhancement. At the very extreme, she'll get to a weak cat 3 for a short
time and then start a decline.

I'll only send out one update a day unless anyone knows anyone in the UK
in which case I can send out more frequent updates to those
interested... oh wait, that would be me... :)

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

No comments: