Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Hurricane Omar: October 15 Update B

The storm is now beginnig to cover the VIs. The strongest part of the
convection (thunderstorms, tornadoes etc) has reached the eastern PR, the
US VIs, the British VIs and Anguilla... but the center has not yet reached
the islands - a few more hours to go. The center of circulation is around
17N, 65W.

He's now a cat 2 with winds of ~105 mph (wind range: 96-110mph), central
pressure 971 mb. That's at ground level. So at higher altitidues on these
islands, they are looking at higher winds.

There are two little (very little) bright spots in this:
1. He has picked up forward speed to 17mph because he is moving between
that low pressure front on his left, moving him counterclockwise, and a
high pressure to his right, moving him clockwise (draw that on a piece of
paper and you'll see the two factors).
2. Hurricane force winds are still confined to about 15 miles from the
eye. The eye looks like it'll pass close to St. Croix, but there's still a
chance it could pass between the islands - it's too close for me to

Not much more to say today. If I hear anything from the islands I'll send
it out in another email because I know a number of family and friends are
checking in. Let's see how things are tomorrow.

Night night,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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