Jyotika's Tropical Storms Blog: September 2012

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Hurricane Nadine and the Atlantic Blob: September 30, Update A

It’s Sunday night; the fabulous Jane Austen’s Emma is on Masterpiece Theater… one approves. Meanwhile, out in Atlantic, Hurricane Nadine is still in a state of nullibicity (<grin>) going around and around, turning hither and thither.

She is currently at 37.2N, 39.2W, heading WNW at 7mph. It looks like she’ll head south again before turning back northward and hopefully up, up and away towards the end of this week (finally!).

Nadine was upgraded to a hurricane a couple of days ago and is still officially a cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Central pressure is 978mb. Although a hurricane, I don’t think she’s quite this strong. I’d estimate winds of around 80mph. An image of her from satellites show a bit of a ragged looking storm:

Also, her circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but it doesn’t really have the circulation I’d expect of a strong cat 1 hurricane in the upper troposphere.

There is also an Atlantic Blob around 10N, 25W, but I’ll write about him when he looks a bit better – currently 10% chance of development.

Now it is time for some ice cream – chocolate and banana (what else would one have on a 'Sunday'? ;-)) - with a drizzle of luscious TV on top.

Ciao (another pun!),
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Thursday, September 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 27, Update A

Nubilous Nadine is now a fairly strong Tropical Storm, with winds officially estimated at 65mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure 993mb. She is at 28.6N, 33.6W, but is now going west at 7mph… (I hear life is peaceful there in the open air, where the skies are blue. In fact, that’s what we should do! ;-)).

She has certainly improved over the past 24 hours, as you can see in this visible satellite image:

It looks like there is more convection, but also the circulation is very good in the lower half of the troposphere and is improving in the upper troposphere. I agree with a wind speed of around 65-70mph. She’s not quite a hurricane though because of wind shear. The forecast track shows she’ll take a more northward turn tomorrow, which seems reasonable to me.

Because Nadine has been around for so long, Karen M. in Florida asked if Nadine had the greatest number of advisories. I am not sure how frequently the NHC issued advisories in times gone by, so I don’t know. However, she is definitely not yet the longest living storm in the Atlantic because she has ‘only’ been a Tropical Storm for about 16 days. In 1971, Hurricane Ginger was around as a named storm for just over 27 days (and a Hurricane for 20 of those 27!). Also longer than Nadine was Faith in 1966 (26 days), Carrie (1957) which was a hurricane for 18 days, Inga (1969) which was a named system for 25 days, Kyle (2002) who was around for 22 days, and a storm in 1926 that was around for 21 days. But the longest lasting storm we think was in 1899 and lasted for 28 days!! How tedious! You should read my blog from back then. ;-)

It’s splash-of-wine o’clock. J

Until tomorrow,
J.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 26, Update A

Never-ending Nadine is still lurking around the Atlantic as a Tropical Storm. I was trying to ignore her over the past few days in the hopes that she’d just go away, but alas it isn’t to be. J

She’s currently at 30.2N, 30.8W, heading SSW at a whopping 5mph. Winds are estimated to be 50mph, central pressure is estimated to be 995mb. Although she’s heading SSW at the moment, the forecast has her curving to the right until she’s heading back northwards. Someone should tell her that it’s not Tropical Storm Playtime, it’s Tropical Storm Naptime (for 6 years). I expect she’ll eventually loop back around and head back to the Azores (again). I think 50mph is not a bad guestimate at her winds – it means she’s a mid-to-weak tropical storm. She may be a little stronger (maybe 55-60mph) because the circulation is quite decent in the lower half of the troposphere and there is some convection, although it’s been an interesting week to look at satellite images. NOAA seems to be having a few problems with their satellites! Here is the infra-red satellite image of the Atlantic from the NHC...

It looks a bit wonky on the eastern side, doesn’t it? The GOES-13 satellite (that covered the western side of the Atlantic/eastern North America) developed a fault on Sept 24. They are working to fix this, but in the meantime they recruited GOES-14 to cover the gap and I think the satellite images flaw in the eastern Atlantic may be because of this glitch. Still, there are other places to look for fun images such as the Navy website (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html) which also uses the GOES satellites, but at least provides close-ups of Nadine:

That’s it for now. I had a lovely liquid dessert of Bourbon Cream this evening… I highly recommend it in lieu of ice cream (or in addition to!). ;-)

More tomorrow,
J.

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Ex-Tropical Storm Nadine (maybe): September 22, Update A

The last time we checked up on Nadine, she was merrily on her way to Africa as a mere Tropical Low. The NHC downgraded her to a post-Tropical Storm, which I agree with because she had no convection and her circulation was really connected to a low pressure front that extended up towards the northeast. However, at the moment she looks like she’s acting out Scene 2 of Monty Python and the Holy Grail: “I’m not dead!”… “I’m getting better!” Her convection has improved… it looks like this is because of that front and also because she is over warm water again. It looks like she’s around 30N, 25W. The NHC now give her a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm (again) in the next 2 days. However there are a couple of atmospheric factors working against her development. First, she is surrounded by the dry Saharan Air Layer, as you can see in this image:

Second, the wind shear is strong for a storm this size and looks like the shear will get a little stronger.

I’ll be back if Nadine says “I think I’ll go for a walk.” Otherwise this is my last entry on Nadine but I’ll be back if there’s another blob out there… I’m still waiting for my Oscar (puns always intended!). ;-) In case you suffer from withdrawal symptoms in the interim, here’s the video of my ‘Our Town’ interview at the Dali Museum in St. Pete, Florida at the end of July: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR6TI6jUhGo. Thanks to the 125 or so who made it there for the live interview! For everyone else, the topic is Moi… don’t say I didn’t warn you! ;-).

Tally ho!
J.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine and the Atlantic Blob: September 20, Update A

I was too busy doing aerobics (as shown earlier) yesterday to blog. I have recovered now. But tomorrow is Friday so I’m sure I’ll do some more. ;-)

Tropical Storm Nadine
Far to the east, Nadine is still hanging around the Azores. Officially still a Tropical Storm, although the NHC say she is losing her tropical characteristics. I think she was losing those much earlier today, possibly even yesterday. In addition to minimal convection, the circulation in the middle troposphere is definitely part of a front, not a stand-along Tropical Storm. You can see this in the satellite image, with clouds streaming off to the northeast because of wind shear from this front (she’s the whirligig on the eastern side of the Atlantic):

Nadine is currently at 35.4N, 28W, heading ESE at 9mph. On this track, she’s currently heading back to Africa… oh the irony! ;-) Winds are officially 65mph, central pressure 981mb.

Atlantic Blob
The NHC currently give him a 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next two days. He does have pretty good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, although some of it connected to a front, which, like Nadine, means he is not really tropical in nature. He is currently around 32N, 55W, heading WNW(ish) at about 10mph. He has a bit more convection than Nadine (as you can also see in the satellite image). Wind shear is low, so he has room to get stronger, but it does look like he’ll meet a patch of stronger shear soon, so if he wants to be called Oscar, he better get his soggy little socks on.

That’s it for today really. I’m going to watch the new Hobbit trailer. Again. Oooh, aaah. And another Oooh for good measure. J (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYz0JWJioOM&feature=youtu.be)
J.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 18, Update A

I have found an exercise that I think is important to share with you because it is good for the heart. It’s easiest to show the steps you need to take in pictures:

Thanks to Karen M. for telling me about this one. J

Tropical Storm Nadine is weakening nicely, with winds now at 50mph, central pressure 993mb. This seems about right to me. Circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere. There is very little convection, and what there is remains mostly in the northern half. She looks like a half-eaten biscuit (that’s cookie if you are in the US). This satellite image shows that there are very few clouds left in the southern half anymore:

You can see the Azores in the top right corner of the image… it be a bit drizzly over there. She’s heading straight for the islands, and isn’t really following the crazy squiggly pattern the NHC think she’ll be taking. Officially she’s at 35.8N, 32.3W, heading NNE at 7mph. I think her center actually at around 36N, 31W. But it is night, so it’s difficult to see her center.

Not much else to say really. I hope the Azores have at least one umbrella… I’m sure they have sun-shades at least. Best get on with those aerobics now…

Toodles!
J.

Monday, September 17, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine & a comment on the NHC advisories and storm classification: September 17, Update A

“There can be only one.” TS Nadine, the Highlander. (It’s a reboot). ;-) I should have travel days more often… I agree with the NHC today! J

TS Nadine is the only thing to watch out there today (as far as Tropical Weather goes), and even she’s been downgraded to a Tropical Storm from yesterday's hurricane. Officially she is still a strong TS with winds of 65mph, central pressure 987mb. She’s at 33.5N, 34.5W, heading NE at 12mph. I agree that she’s a strong TS because although her circulation is still good in the lower half of the troposphere she doesn’t have much convection, as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

In fact there was more rainy weather over the northern Gulf states today than there is in Nadine. She’s still heading towards the Azores, getting into that vicinity by Thursday. I agree with this too… and all this being nice and agreeable doesn’t end there! (I hope you are sitting down for the next bit, maybe with a good drink in your hands, because I’m about to defend the NHC! ;-))

<Soap box alert> I read something today (http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/15/3004734/rethinking-hurricane-ratings-post.html) in which the NHC had to defend their advisories, essentially because some who convey this information to the public say the information the NHC releases is too difficult to grasp. I think the NHC should leave their advisories alone; they are perfectly understandable to trained meteorologists. The official advisories are for a range of audiences (as mentioned); they are not written for a general audience (otherwise why have TV broadcasts, fancy graphics, or completely (ahem) fabulous and witty (ahem) blogs? ;-)) During storm situations I imagine it is pretty stressful in the Hurricane Center and they need to consider advisories that address many groups and countries, not just the general US public. The onus in accurately translating the technical information that the NHC releases should be on those who make a living in communicating this information to the public. The NHC’s focus should be on forecasting.

The other piece of this report tackles the problem that storm intensity classification depends solely on the wind speed according to the Saffir-Simpson scale, and yet quite a lot of damage is caused by water (storm surge, flooding, convection). I agree that this could do with some adjustment but I am not sure that simply changing the Saffir-Simpson scale is the best answer. Other solutions include better information to convey the importance of storm surge and flooding (as written in the piece), or maybe we simply need another (clearly defined) scale for surge? Storm surge can vary greatly between storms even though their intensity is the same- it depends on the size of the storm, how fast it is moving, the angle of approach to the coastline, the shape of the coastline, the bathymetry/topography etc. The NHC received no end of criticism when Hurricane Ike was approaching Galveston and they said it meant certain death if people didn’t evacuate. Referring to some sort of water-related scale would remove some of that drama. After all… we know a cat 5 means pretty much ‘total destruction’ (from the winds).

That is my comment in which I defend the NHC. This is a rare event and it doesn’t mean I agree with all their forecasts and analysis of storms of course. And in case you are wondering… I’m sure the aliens will return the usual critical, and yet very funny and modest me back to earth soon. ;-) <end Soap Box alert>

Tally ho!
J.

Saturday, September 15, 2012

Hurricane Nadine and the Atlantic Blob: September 15, Update A

I’m adding earthquake, heat wave (temps in LA around 100-104 deg C), and brush fire (taken from local grocery parking lot in LA)

to my personal ‘natural disaster’ tally for this summer (tropical storm, near-by tornado, and dust storm). All I need is a 1 cm tsunami and a minor volcanic eruption and I think I’ll have the complete collector’s edition. Maybe it would be better for everyone if I just stayed at home and read books and watched movies for the rest of the year? ;-)

Hurricane Nadine
The NHC decided to finally upgrade TS Nadine to Hurricane Nadine yesterday. Funny timing really, as it happened just as the wind shear picked up and the circulation decreased. But at least it matched what they (or the models) predicted so who really cares about reality, hey? Still no eye though… so in the future if you ever hear anyone say there isn’t an eye so it’s not a weak cat 1 hurricane, feel free to tell them that is complete codswallop.

Her winds are now officially 80mph, central pressure 983mb. I think she’s weaker than this. Not only is she experiencing wind shear, as you can see by the clouds streaming off to the north and east in the satellite image (below), but her convection has decreased quite a lot since my last update (before she was ‘upgraded’ to a hurricane).

She is moving ENE at 15mph, and was at 30.9N, 49.9W at the last advisory. She looks like she’s now at around 40.1N, 48.1W. Despite their appalling ability to get the intensity right, I think they have done a pretty good job with the track forecast for Nadine. She did head north at around 54W, and then curved as expected and is now heading ENE. She’s supposed to reach the Azores as a Tropical Storm on Thursday morning. I don’t think she’ll be that strong (wind shear will remain strong), but they can expect a few clouds.

Atlantic Blob
A blobbier blob I never did see. This guy is still pretty weak. He’s near the southern end of the Lesser Antilles, somewhere between 10-15N, 50-55W, moving W at 10-15mph. There’s a toot of convection with a sloosh of circulation in the lowest part of the troposphere. The NHC give him a 20% chance of developing. I’ll write more if he improves (by a lot). The next storm gets an Oscar (as a name… although if he’s as fictional as some of these storms, it may be as an award for best fictional screenplay).

Travel day tomorrow! I’ll try and hop onto a machine if I can.
Toodle pips!
J.

Friday, September 14, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 13, Update A

September 13, 1999… anyone know what happened? (Big Clue: fictional). Answer at the end. J

Tropical Storm Nadine has, apparently (said with sarcasm), had consistent winds of 70mph (central pressure now estimated to be 989mb) for over 24 hours which means she’s officially still a Tropical Storm by a difference of 4 mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Seems a little (British understatement) unlikely to me that she’s not a hurricane… the circulation is good throughout the troposphere and the structure of the storm has improved - you can see the good outflow in all directions (except east) in this satellite image (remember divergence and ‘outflow’… those jagged clouds that surround a storm?):

Convection is really strong in the center and has grown in areal extent since yesterday. Has someone somewhere forgotten that weak cat 1 hurricanes do not necessarily have a clear eye? (I think this is what they are waiting for). This year I (and others) have noticed that the NHC have consistently underestimated the intensity of a storm until they get data from a plane (I think I commented on this earlier in the season as well). I am not sure if they are sending a plane into Nadine, but I would say she is a weak cat 1 hurricane at the moment!

Oh, and the reason why the clouds are a bit squiggly (‘technical term’ ;-)) to the east are because of the wind shear I mentioned yesterday. The wind shear will get stronger so she shouldn’t really get very intense – and if they don’t upgrade soon, she may not officially become a hurricane at all!

But at least we still agree on location and direction… at the last advisory she was at 25N, 53.7W, heading NNW at 15mph. The forecast track still has her heading north at around this longitude. It’s difficult to tell from the satellite images because it’s night now but, as I said yesterday, I think she may go a little further west before turning fully north. Regardless of point of turn, she will be east of Bermuda.

Answer to my question: September 13, 1999 was the fictional date that the Moon was knocked out of Earth’s orbit in Space 1999. It was a fabulous British sci-fi TV series that I used to watch as a kid. I just never figured out one thing (the rest of it made perfect sense of course)… regardless of how many spacecraft (Eagle) were destroyed, they seemed to have an endless supply of them stashed away (surely the Moon could only have had a finite storage area and supply of materials)… to this day it remains one of the great unsolved mysteries of the universe. ;-)

Ciao for now,
J.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 12, Update A

Just about time for short update …

In the first advisory I looked at today the NHC said Nadine’s winds were 60mph. She now officially has winds of 70mph, central pressure 990mb. They say that “NADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW THE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION”. I think her intensification has been normal... as I said yesterday, she looked stronger (in the 60-65mph range) than the 40mph they had because of her circulation and convection. With winds of 70mph she’s a very strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). And now I think she’s a weak category 1 storm, with winds closer to 80mph (it is not necessary for her to have an eye to be a weak cat 1 storm - that usually occurs at the mid-intensity cat 1 range). Her circulation has improved throughout the troposphere, as has her convection as you can see in the latest satellite image:

There is a lot of water vapor around now and the water temperatures, at 29-30 deg C, are definitely warm enough to keep this convection going. But I don’t think she will get a chance to increase much beyond a strong cat 1 storm because she is about to head into some nice wind shear which should keep things in check.

I do agree with the NHC on their location and direction. She is around 20.7N, 50.1W, heading NW at 16mph. The track keeps her in the Atlantic, well to the east of Bermuda. I agree with this too. Although they have her curving north around 54W, I think she may be a little west of that before really heading north and northeast (maybe as far as 57-58W).

That’s all for now folks (said in a cartoon voice). ;-)
Night!
J.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Extratropical Storm Leslie, Tropical Depression Michael, and Tropical Storm Nadine: September 11, Update A

The humans have been saved, the blancmanges have been beaten! (Monty Python) Andy Murray won the US Open! ;-) Hurray!

Extratropical Storm/Post-tropical cyclone Leslie
She got up to Canada, caused some havoc, and has now moved on. She was last seen at 49.4N, 53.6W, and although she still officially had winds of 70mph (central pressure 968mb!) and was heading NNW at 45mph, the NHC stopped issuing advisories. Their map probably doesn’t go beyond 50N. ;-) Actually, she really wasn’t a Tropical Storm at that point but was, instead, caught up in that low front and was an extratropical storm, which is why she was moving so quickly. This is my last entry on Leslie… two weeks later! Phew.

Tropical Depression Michael
He was downgraded to a Tropical Storm last night, and has steadily been declining today. He’s now a Tropical Depression at 41.4N, 45.8W, heading NNE at 31mph (he’s also getting caught up in a low pressure front). In the last advisory winds were 40mph, central pressure 1000mb. That was the last word the NHC had to say about Michael and it will also be my last on him. My, we are doing well! Surely it must be time for a Ferrero Roche! ;-) (Little Britain).

Tropical Storm Nadine
Our Atlantic Blobette has blossomed into Tropical Storm Nadine. Her circulation improved today, and she’s put on a lovely yellow and red sundress, as you can see in this satellite image:

She definitely picked up some convection and has thundery weather in there today! She close to 18N, 45.5W, heading WNW at 15mph. Officially winds are estimated to be 40mph (central pressure 1004mb), so she’s barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Given her circulation and convection, I think she’s stronger than this - maybe in the 60-65mph range actually. She’ll continue WNW for now, although she may slow down a little tomorrow – tricky to tell that part.

Time for a bit of cheese. More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie, Hurricane Michael, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 10, Update A

Continuing with tradition, I’m watching a tennis match while writing. ‘Tis the Murray/Djokovic U.S. Open final and Murray has the first two sets (phew!)… but boy was the end of the 2^nd set a bit nerve-wracking! It looks like it’s cold and blustery in New York and I hear they had tornados there over the weekend. That’s because of the front that has now moved on into the Atlantic and is whisking TS Leslie away.

Tropical Storm Leslie
She is officially at 40N, 59.1W, heading NNE at a super-fast speed of 35mph… a sure sign she’s caught up in that front. Officially winds are 70mph, central pressure is 988mb. So officially she’s a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), but because the forward speed is added to her winds, if she was stationary, her winds would be closer to the weak end of a Tropical Storm. They have backed off making her a hurricane in the forecast and she’ll remain a Tropical Storm all the way to Newfoundland (tomorrow), then on to Greenland and Iceland (although she’ll be a strong front rather than a tropical storm by then!). She still looks like a Tropical Storm and has good circulation in the lower troposphere, with some circulation still in the upper troposphere. However, as you can see from this satellite image of the North Atlantic, there isn’t much convection left, but she will bring some wet and windy weather to Canada:

I heard from Steve B. on Bermuda yesterday evening, as Leslie was heading out: “Things are fine here. A touch breezy but unless your glass is really full, hardly a ripple to be seen. Good surf if you are silly enough to brave the barren reefs with their razor sharp edges.”

(Oh bother… Djokovic is winning 5-2 in the third set).

Hurricane Michael
He is officially at 34.4N, 47.6W heading NW at 12mph. Winds are 75mph (central pressure 989mb), so he’s barely a cat 1 hurricane now (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and I expect they will downgrade him to a Tropical Storm later today. (Oh shucks, Andy lost the third set). As expected, his outer bands are playing footsie with Leslie’s outer bands (as you can also see in that satellite image).

Atlantic Blobette
The NHC have given said this little kid has a 90% chance of developing into the next Tropical Depression in the next 48 hours. She’ll be Nadine if she makes it to Tropical Storm status. She’s currently moving WNW at 15-20mph and is centered somewhere around 16.5N, 40.5W. She has some decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but she doesn’t have much in the way of convection (as you can also see in the satellite image). There is a bit of wind shear, but her main inhibitor is dry air to her left/west and Saharan dry air to her right/east. It looks like she’ll continue generally westward/WNW for now.

Back tomorrow. I must go and focus on this Murray match! Eeek. Come on Murray, pull up your socks!… you can’t lose with James Bond and Indiana Jones’ dad on your side!! J
J.

Sunday, September 09, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie, Hurricane Michael, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 9, Update A

One more day until you stop hearing about Bermuda and Leslie. One more day until Michael is no longer a hurricane. One more day until Andy Murray wins a Grand Slam. :-)

Tropical Storm Leslie
She is crossing the latitude of Bermuda at the moment and although officially at the last advisory an hour ago, she was at 32.6N, 62.4W heading N at 10mph, I think she has started on her NNE/NE track and is now at 32.8N, 62.2W. Here is the latest infrared satellite image:

It looks like Bermuda got some thunderstormy weather and may (or may not) have another bout. Even though there are areas of (strong) convection, it is not very symmetrical and I agree with the official analysis that she's still a Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph, central pressure 988mb. Although the sea surface temperatures are still 28 deg C, there is a bit of wind shear to her north and she has that lovely dry air that is inhibiting her development. You can see the wind shear in this satellite image of the Northwest Atlantic:

She's heading NNE now, but that really long front coming off the US brings with it large wind shear. Later today it will start impacting Leslie with its wind shear, and once it gets closer to Leslie, she will jump on this highway and get whisked away to the northeast. Circulation is good in the lower half of of the troposphere, with a small signal in the upper troposphere.

Hurricane Michael
You can see little Michael in the image of the NW Atlantic as well. He still has a pretty nice eye and his convection is still pretty weak. Officially he was at 33.7N, 43.2W heading W at 5mph at the last advisory. Winds are now down to 90mph, central pressure is 978mb. Yay! I agree with this wind speed now, and it makes him a strong cat 1 storm. Until his eye vanishes, I'd keep him at this intensity. Yesterday the NHC did an excellent job with forecasting his sharp left turn. It looks like he's moving slightly south of west... heading towards Leslie. I don't think he'll get far enough west to actually meet her, but he'll be interacting with her outer bands as she moves Northeastward just because she is so big.

Atlantic Blobette
A small blobette came off Africa a couple of days ago and is now west of the Cape Verde islands at around 15N, 30W, heading WNW at 10-15mph. There is a little circulation in the lower troposphere and nothing in the upper troposphere. There is also not a lot of convection in this system yet. The NHC give it a 40% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. It looks like it will continue westward, or it may get stuck or move WSW. It is really not well developed enough to be able to assess clearly at the moment. I'll keep an eye on it though.

I hope things are going ok on Bermuda... let me know if you can!

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Leslie and Hurricane Michael: September 8, Update A

Chris K., who is on a Research Vessel in the Atlantic, said that although the forecast called for 7-10 ft seas yesterday, “instead it was flat calm” out there (she’s not complaining!). I also heard from Tom that there were no swells on St. Thomas either (although he’s pleased that Leslie is on the move away from the Caribbean). This suggests that either Leslie has weaker winds than the official forecast suggests or that the models that are being used to issue these forecasts need some work.

Tropical Storm Leslie
She’s officially at 30.1N, 62.6W, heading N at 8mph. Winds are officially 65mph, with a central pressure of 988mb, making her a strong Tropical Storm. Officially anyway.

I’m curious how, according to the NHC, she’s been heading north (360 deg) all day while they managed to move her central location almost 0.5 degrees West. As I said last night, I think she was moving NNW. Since then she made a shift to a more northward track and now, although I agree with the NHC on her current location, I think she has shifted again to a more NNE track. However, I think she’ll wiggle once again to the N/NNW before making her final curve to the N/NE.

Intensity-wise, I think her winds are a little weaker than 65mph. Although it looks like she has an eye in some satellite images, bewarned that it’s not actually an eye. Here's the visible satellite image from about 8 hours ago, in which you can see the 'eye':

It’s actually an area of dry air slap bang in the center. Here is the infra-red satellite image from 8 hours ago, and you can clearly see the dry air entering from the northeast:

Also, for your viewing pleasure, here is the latest infra-red satellite image… it looks like dry air is winning this game!

Her convection has decreased quite considerably, even in the last 8 hours. Bermuda is having a breezy night with some rain. Even though the sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain her at 28 deg C, and the wind shear has decreased for now, it seems unlikely to me that she’ll get up to a hurricane at this point (still officially in the forecast for tomorrow evening). The circulation in the upper troposphere has already started to deteriorate and once she crosses Bermuda tomorrow the sea surface temperatures begin to decrease and wind shear picks up again.

I’m sure the rum will be safe. J

Hurricane Michael
Meanwhile, a short hop, skip and a jump away is Michael. I have to say that he’s a persistent little fellow. The eye returned after my last update and has remained all day. He is currently at about 33.5N, 42.6W, heading NNW at 6mph. Winds are now 100mph, with a central pressure of 975mb. I’d say the winds were closer 95mph because the convection is still pathetic (as you can see in the IR satellite image below), but 100mph is ok too… it’s still a weak cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph).

The forecast is for his intensity to decrease tomorrow to a cat 1. I think he’s borderline cat 1/cat 2 already and will continue to decrease in intensity. The NHC have said he’ll remain a hurricane until Monday.

More tomorrow when hopefully Long-lasting Leslie will have finally made it past Bermuda … and I might write about the latest Atlantic Blobette out of Africa.

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, September 07, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie and Hurricane Michael: September 7. Update B

A second update today because there are some very important things you should know. The most important is today’s Google Doodle which may, quite possibly, be their best one yet! Go to google.com and scroll over the Star Trek themed Doodle with the sound on. Click on anything that lights up. It’s great. J Hours of fun and entertainment… ok, maybe not hours, but minutes at least. Happy 46^th anniversary Star Trek!

Tropical Storm Leslie
The NHC agree now that she is finally on the move. Phew. Officially she’s at 27.4N, 62.2W heading N at 5mph. I still think she’s was east of this earlier and heading north, but is now at around 27.4N, 62.2W heading NNW/NW. I have the latest pressure data now and it’s clearing up nicely. It looks like she will head a little to the northwest (probably still within the current cone, but a bit closer to Bermuda). After heading northwest for a short time, she’ll start heading back to the north (still on the eastern side of the island) and then north east (after crossing the Bermuda area) – towards Michael in fact.

Winds are 65mph, central pressure is 982mb. I agree with the wind speed, she looks like a strong Tropical Storm to me. There is a chance she’ll get a little stronger again, because sea surface temperatures north of her are still around 28-29 deg C, but the good news is that it’s a fairly shallow layer of warm water. Another reason she’ll get stronger is because wind shear will decrease further. Also, at least for now, there is dry air to her west still – although that will also decrease as she moves north and closer to Michael. I think at the most she’ll get up to a weakish cat 1 storm, if that.

Hurricane Michael
The NHC still have his winds at 105mph (central pressure 970mb), which looks way off to me. There isn’t really even a clear eye anymore, which suggests to me that the winds are in the 80-90 mph range. Here is the latest infrared satellite image of Michael:

You can see that he’s definitely also being impacted by wind shear (and there’s no eye). He is officially at 31.4N, 41.3W, moving NW at 3mph.

That’s it for now. I actually mostly wanted to tell you all about the Google Doodle. J Time for a cup of tea and then vegetable chopping… (told you I was having a glamourous Hollywood life).

Slurp slurp (tea drinking sound effects),

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Leslie, Hurricane Michael, and the Gulf of Mexico Blobette: September 7, Update A

Between tropical summer storms, dust storms and time travel, I just didn’t get the opportunity to write yesterday. This is my third time zone in three days! It would be much more convenient if I had a TARDIS! ;-)

Tropical Storm Leslie
I am pleased to see that the NHC downgraded her to a Tropical Storm this morning with winds of 70mph, central pressure 981mb. I am not sure about this central pressure and wind speed assessment – it seems like a really low central pressure for only 70mph winds (and they keep decreasing their estimate of central pressure but also decreasing the wind speed which is odd), but this was from a NOAA hurricane hunter plane.

I do agree with the wind speed estimate – I think that is close to the right range. She really was a border-line Tropical Storm/cat 1 hurricane yesterday, and her convection looks even more ragged today. As I said a couple of days ago, that dry air is doing its best, aided by its plucky side-kicks, ‘a very-little-bit-o-wind-shear’ and ‘cooler-waters’ (surface temperatures have decreased to about 24.5 deg C! – that’s almost a 5-6 deg C drop since she’s been there, which is really impressive). Here is the latest infra-red satellite image of Leslie:

She’s mostly just clouds (white and blue), with some rain (yellow) and some thundery weather (orange), but none of that really strong convection. The circulation is pretty decent throughout the troposphere, so if our superhero and it’s side-kicks decide to take a break she could still intensify a bit, but not too much methinks, and certainly not the cat 2 that was in the official forecast a few days ago.

Officially she is at 26.8N, 62.2W, and the NHC think she is stationary. I think she’s a little east of this at 26.8N, 61.8W, and is slowly creeping… yesterday the pressure fields changed (finally!) and she has a bit of wiggle room now to move northwardish (but not by much yet and she might get stuck again). The NHC have changed the timing and keep her pretty much stationary until Saturday, and she’ll pass the Bermuda area now on Sunday. I agree that she will pass east of the island, so it should be a fairly nice day on Bermuda after all. Maybe a bit breezy, but that’s just a minor challenge in the world of golf isn’t it?

Hurricane Michael
He’s still a pretty decent little hurricane, with a lovely clear eye. J Officially he’s at 31.2N, 41.1W, heading NW at 3mph. I think he’s at 31.2N, 41W, heading north or NNW. Winds are officially 105mph, central pressure is 970mb, which makes him a mid-intensity cat 2 storm (range: 96-110mph). I think this is an overestimate in wind speed. I’d put him closer to the 95mph range. Convection is not really as strong as one would expect in a cat 2. I saw they had him as a cat 3 at one point a couple of days ago. I think that was an overestimate as well.

Gulf of Mexico Blobette
As expected, this blobette is still moving southwestwardish, and really isn’t anything significant. There’s a bit of circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere, but nothing in the middle levels. She’s just a blobette – we have more action when a front comes through! I’m not going to write anything else about this unless she does something interesting.

Must run… my <ahem> glamorous <ahem> Hollywood life is beckoning, but I’ll be back as a science geek later though! ;-)

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Hurricanes Leslie and Michael, and the Gulf of Mexico Blobette: September 5, Udpate A

Not much time for dilly-dallying tonight, but at least I’m in one of my normal time zones! J

Hurricane Leslie
As expected, Leslie was upgraded to a weak cat 1 with winds of 75mph today (central pressure 985mb), however she is a bit messy for a Hurricane. That dry air is still creeping in and is now very close to the center. There is still also some lurking wind shear, and as expected, the water underneath is cooler now because she’s been there for so long. If it wasn’t for the strong circulation in all levels of the troposphere, I would downgrade her to a Tropical Storm for now because the convection is quite weak as you can see in the infrared satellite image:

Because of her messy appearance it is a little difficult to figure out her exact center but the NHC location looks more-or-less close enough at 26.2N, 62.5W. She is moving N at 2mph – and even that is a little dodgy as a direction and speed estimate. It looks like she’s just going round in little circles. Maybe she fell asleep counting fish…

The forecast has her upgrading to a Cat 2 storm on Friday, when she will finally begin moving. I am not sure this will happen. They may be factoring in her anticipated forward motion as well, but if she is that strong she’ll have a well-developed and consistent eye by then, which she certainly doesn’t have at the moment. Regardless of intensity, her wind fields are quite extensive and I believe the surfers are enjoying this along the east coast of Florida!

It looks like she will pass the Bermuda area on Saturday. It’s tricky to tell whether she will be to the east or west or over the island at the moment because there isn’t enough guidance in the pressure data. I know you are all getting ready. Two people have mentioned to me in the last two days that Bermuda has the best rum in the world. Also, Steve W. from Florida kindly requests that you (the Bermudan people) secure the Gosling Rum factory, and if you are evacuating, please bring all the rum with you.

Hurricane Michael
He was just upgraded to a hurricane with winds of 75mph, central pressure 990mb. He is at 29.3N, 42.2W, moving NE at 7mph. Michael is a good looking little storm, with a very clear eye. The persistence of the eye suggests to me that his winds are probably closer to 85mph. It isn’t a big deal though because just like Earth in the second edition of The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy, he’s mostly harmless. J The convection is not as strong as it could be, and there is some wind shear so clouds are streaming off to the northeast. These suggest that he’s not developed enough to be a cat 2. He will continue to experience wind shear which may help to inhibit him. I agree with the NHC – I don’t think he’ll get as strong as a cat 2 storm.

Gulf of Mexico Blobette
Our potential little daughter of Isaac has moved into the Gulf now, with all its lovely dry air and wind shear (although the waters are warm enough for some convection). She doesn’t have very strong circulation in the troposphere at the moment – in the lower troposphere the vorticity is connected all the way to the mid-west, and in the middle of the troposphere the vorticity stretches to Mexico, which suggests that she’s more of a front-type thingy (technical term ;-)). Although the computer models take her east, skirting the northern Gulf towards Florida, I think she’ll continue southwestward for longer than they expect. She’s not organized enough for me to see a center, but I guess if there is one it is around 28.5N, 89W, just off the Mississippi delta.

The NHC give her a 50% chance of developing in the next couple of days. They’ll send a plane in tomorrow afternoon if they think they need more info. Until that vorticity (circulation) improves, she won’t be a Tropical anything.

That’s it for today folks! Tomorrow is another mad-cap sort of day (it’s a Thursday… what else could I expect? ;-)). I’ll try and get something about about Leslie and the blobette if I can though.

Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Leslie, Tropical Storm Michael, and the Gulf of Mexico Blobette: September 4 (well, early 5th now), Update A

Goodness me, what a long work day! It is now 2.25am in the time zone I am visiting for A day, and 3.25am in my normal time zone! But this is the last thing I need to write before sleepytime…. If I fall asleep mid-sentence, you’ll knozzzzzzzzzzz! (reminds me of “ARTHUR: Look, if he was dying, he wouldn't bother to carve 'aaggggh'. He'd just say it! MAYNARD: Well, that's what's carved in the rock! GALAHAD: Perhaps he was dictating.” Monty Python J).

Tropical Storm Leslie
Leslie is obviously counting the fish in the middle of the Atlantic … she’s now moving at a whopping 2mph in a NNW direction (towards Bermuda). She is well and truly stuck in a region of high pressure. We’ve had some rather memorable stalling storms (Wilma in 2005 over Campeche comes to mind), but I can’t remember when a storm was surrounded for so long by high pressure! The current forecast keeps her in the same area until Friday, and then she’ll start to move. At the moment I’m going to agree with this scenario because the data I have still only shows her moving slowly/stalling, and n'owt else.

Her center is at 25.2N, 62.8W. As you can see in this infra-red satellite image she is still big, but if you compare this to yesterday’s image her convection has decreased (less red!):

She is wearing out her welcome! Also, now that the convection has backed off a bit it looks like dry air is entering the system. Wind shear has decreased, although there is still some impacting the eastern side where the clouds are streaming off. Winds are 65mph, central pressure 994mb. This makes her a strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). Her intensification (or lack of) depends on the atmosphere in this case, not so much the ocean (although water temperatures of 29 deg C are enough to keep her going). There is good circulation in the lower troposphere and there is actually very good circulation in the upper troposphere – enough to consider her a stronger storm (borderline cat 1 actually), but that dry air is really doing its best!

Tropical Storm Michael
Really? Wind shear decreased since yesterday which really allowed him to tidy his act up and develop into a storm. But he’s even smaller than Captain Kirk… you need a magnifying glass to find Michael! He’s stuck in the same high pressure as Leslie, and is stationary at 27.4N, 43.7W. Water temperatures are 27 deg C, with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 50-75m (about the same as his big sister to the west). I agree with the NHC analysis on this one. Winds are 50mph, central pressure 1005mb. He’s pretty weak still and he won’t really impact anyone (on land). More on Michael tomorrow.

Gulf of Mexico Blobette
Hmm… so I’m in Pensacola. Writing from under this blobette. In classic alternate reverse universe fashion, it is coming ‘off’ the mainland US and moving into the Gulf. How interesting! The question is whether or not this is some sort of remnant of that pesky Isaac. It looks like it is part of a front that stretches across the eastern US, that was, in turn, fed by Isaac… so it could be that this is a bizarre offspring! It doesn’t have too much convection (because it rained here all day), but there is some circulation in the lower troposphere (which is still attached to that front). I am not sure what anyone is making of this, but the NHC give it a 10% chance of developing. It may just fizzle out… I’ll know more tomorrow! (an obvious thing to say really).

Sleep…sleep… (By the way,thanks for the RTs everyone! J)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, September 03, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie and Tropical Depression 13: September 3, Update A

Dear Bermudians, think I’d forgotten about you? Never! You may be a dot in the Atlantic, but you drink proper tea and probably have yummy Jammie Dodgers and Jaffa Cakes. J (hmm… it must be time for dessert…) I didn’t really get a chance to look at a computer for long yesterday, but I see that Leslie is considering a round of golf on your fair island.

Tropical Storm Leslie
She has definitely got the biggest area of very strong convection I’ve seen in a long time! And it’s persistent… it has been that impressively large since yesterday. Here is the latest infra-red satellite image for the Atlantic so you can see how she could easily blanket the entire state of Florida with strong thunderstorms (red parts of the image)!

But her bark is, at least officially, bigger than her bite... her winds are only 60mph (TS: 39-73mph), so she’s officially a mid-strength Tropical Storm (central pressure 998mb). Leslie has not yet developed into the hurricane that was initially forecast by now by the NHC because of wind shear and a bit of dry air to the west. She’s quite interesting because she’s had a large area of really strong convection for over 24 hours, but her wind speed has not really improved. Although sea surface temperatures are around 29 deg C, which is certainly warm enough for convection and gentle intensification, water warmer than 26 deg C is only in the upper 50m or so of the water column so one would expect that this strong convection wouldn’t persist in the same area for so long. The atmosphere is key in influencing her intensity and once that wind shear decreases she will have room to develop into a hurricane. The only things I can see that would counter this are the dry air to her west and cooler water… between her current location and Bermuda the water warmer than 26 deg C is only in the upper 25-40m and if she doesn’t put her walking boots on she may actually cool the surface water underneath quite substantially (enough to inhibit strong convection anyway). The NHC forecast a hurricane on Thursday. It looks like wind shear will be decreasing within the next day. She might be a hurricane before Thursday. Her circulation is really strong in the lower half of the troposphere, with only a very small signal in the upper troposphere. I think 60-65mph is reasonable.

At the moment Leslie is lolling around in the Atlantic, heading NNW at 3mph, currently officially at 24N, 63.1W. Because of that wind shear and strong convection I find it difficult to see her center. I think it could even be southeast of the official location, closer to 23N, 62W.The forecast track has her slowly inching towards Bermuda, getting close around Saturday/Sunday. The pressure maps I look at don’t really have any information other than she’ll be slow. Not a whopping insight really, is it? It looks like her girth is large enough for Bermuda to be feeling a little breeze already. I’m sure that people are preparing on the island with a pint or two.

Tropical Depression 13
The circulation is not very strong, but there is a bit in the lower half of the troposphere. The main problem this blob is facing is dry air, which is inhibiting it’s convection. It is officially at 25.6N, 42.2W, moving NW at 3mph. The winds are officially estimated to be 35mph, central pressure 1012mb. They think this will be a named storm by tomorrow, but as you can see in this IR satellite image, it would have to really get its act together to pull that one off!

That’s it for now. It’s half-past wine-and-cheese o’clock!
Cheers,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, September 01, 2012

Tropical Storms Captain Kirk and Leslie: September 1, Update A

Sorry I missed yesterday. I accidentally got caught up in some time travel. After dinner I closed my eyes for a second and was whisked forward through time by a few hours. Funny how these things happen on Fridays. I expect it’s because I still can’t quite get the hang of Thursdays. ;-) Luckily, despite all this zipping through time, there weren’t any big surprises yesterday – Captain Kirk and Leslie behaved themselves (which is quite unusual for Captain Kirk and <insert female humanoid name>! ;-)).

Tropical Storm Captain Kirk
As expected, he did get a little stronger yesterday, but still remained a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). However his intensity has steadily declined over the last 24 hours and he was just downgraded to a Tropical Storm in the 11am advisory, with estimated winds of 70mph, central pressure 989mb. I think as a Tropical Storm he is actually weaker than this indicates. Here is the latest infra-red satellite image of the North Atlantic:

You can see Kirk in the middle around 37.4N, 46.5W and Leslie, who currently has the same wind speed, farther south at 18.3N, 55.7W. They don’t quite look the same, do they?

I think the reason the NHC are keeping Kirk at that intensity is because he is caught up in that low pressure front I mentioned in my last update (the one that you could see with clouds streaming across the north Atlantic). The NHC also include the forward speed of a storm when they are figuring out a storm’s wind speed, and Captain Kirk is now moving at warp speed 9 (25mph)! Obviously he’s in a rush to get to Ireland and the UK… he must be out of PG Tips and jelly babies (why yes, since you ask, I am watching the Dr. Who marathon on BBC America). He may not be much by the time he gets there though because of some strong wind shear in his path.

Tropical Storm Leslie
Officially (at the 11am advisory) she was at 18.3N, 55.7W, heading WNW at 18mph. Winds speed is 70mph, central pressure 996mb, which makes her a very strong Tropical Storm/borderline Cat 1 storm (TS range: 39-73mph, cat 1 range: 74-95mph).

Her circulation is strong in the lower troposphere and she’s got circulation in the upper troposphere as well now so I would agree with this borderline strong TS/cat 1 assessment. Although she is over some lovely warm water (surface temperature 27-29 deg C) and the upper 100m or so of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C, there is some dry air to the north and west of her and she does have a bit of wind shear which is stopping her from intensifying too quickly. You can see the impact of this in the latest visible and infra-red satellite images of Leslie:

there are clouds streaming off to the northeast (wind shear) and the center is north of the main area of convection and the north/west quadrants have less convection than the south/east quadrants (dry air).

Although the track forecast keeps her well to the north of the Caribbean, she is going to be close enough to bring some breezy weather with maybe a drop or two of rain to that northeast corner. It looks like the outer bands are almost at the islands already. The forecast track also keeps her to the east of Bermuda, waving as she passes by next Friday/Saturday. The pressure fields I look at don’t have enough resolution at the moment for me to be able to figure out the track, so I’m going with the official word for now.

Last words on Isaac
I hear that some people are still without power in the northern Gulf – hope it gets restored soon! (although Nicole L. in Louisiana just said they were told that it may not be back until Sept. 6^th. Eeek.). I always appreciate the power trucks and people sent in from other states and power companies to get power re-established as quickly as possible… I assume that is also the case in LA.

Isaac was a big story because of the RNC and then the shadow of Katrina. There were a couple of TV media reports that were brought to my attention (naming no names of course ;-))…

First, a weather reporter was heard saying that the Saharan dust is why Isaac is not moving northwards. This is Not Correct, I repeat, this is Not Correct. Dust keeps the intensity low because it is dry air and prevents strong convection from developing. The track is determined by the pressure fields. Completely different things!

Second, on a different station, a weather anchor was heard to say that “we still have to take this threat [or storm] serious.” Twice. Now I may not have the best control of the English language, being British and all, but even I can tell that this is grammatically WRONG!! It should be “we still have to take this threat seriousLY”. For those who “felt a disturbance in the Force… as if a million voices suddenly cried out in terror…” (Star Wars), it was probably English teachers from around the world. With respect (and in my not-always-very-humble-opinion), if you are on TV and have the responsibility of talking to thousands of people, please have a good command of the language. It’s as important as the content information you are imparting. I can’t take you serious otherwise (ummm… which, in case you didn’t realize, is also wrong and should be ‘seriously’… It’s called sarcasm).

And that is my last word on Isaac.

Time to watch some Dr. Who. Again. J

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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