Thursday, September 20, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine and the Atlantic Blob: September 20, Update A

I was too busy doing aerobics (as shown earlier) yesterday to blog. I have recovered now. But tomorrow is Friday so I’m sure I’ll do some more. ;-)

Tropical Storm Nadine
Far to the east, Nadine is still hanging around the Azores. Officially still a Tropical Storm, although the NHC say she is losing her tropical characteristics. I think she was losing those much earlier today, possibly even yesterday. In addition to minimal convection, the circulation in the middle troposphere is definitely part of a front, not a stand-along Tropical Storm.  You can see this in the satellite image, with clouds streaming off to the northeast because of wind shear from this front (she’s the whirligig on the eastern side of the Atlantic):

Nadine is currently at 35.4N, 28W, heading ESE at 9mph. On this track, she’s currently heading back to Africa… oh the irony! ;-) Winds are officially 65mph, central pressure 981mb.

Atlantic Blob
The NHC currently give him a 60% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next two days. He does have pretty good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, although some of it connected to a front, which, like Nadine, means he is not really tropical in nature. He is currently around 32N, 55W, heading WNW(ish) at about 10mph. He has a bit more convection than Nadine (as you can also see in the satellite image). Wind shear is low, so he has room to get stronger, but it does look like he’ll meet a patch of stronger shear soon, so if he wants to be called Oscar, he better get his soggy little socks on.

That’s it for today really. I’m going to watch the new Hobbit trailer. Again. Oooh, aaah. And another Oooh for good measure. J  (

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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