Monday, September 10, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie, Hurricane Michael, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 10, Update A

Continuing with tradition, I’m watching a tennis match while writing. ‘Tis the Murray/Djokovic U.S. Open final and Murray has the first two sets (phew!)… but boy was the end of the 2nd set a bit nerve-wracking! It looks like it’s cold and blustery in New York and I hear they had tornados there over the weekend. That’s because of the front that has now moved on into the Atlantic and is whisking TS Leslie away.

Tropical Storm Leslie
She is officially at 40N, 59.1W, heading NNE at a super-fast speed of 35mph… a sure sign she’s caught up in that front. Officially winds are 70mph, central pressure is 988mb. So officially she’s a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), but because the forward speed is added to her winds, if she was stationary, her winds would be closer to the weak end of a Tropical Storm. They have backed off making her a hurricane in the forecast and she’ll remain a Tropical Storm all the way to Newfoundland (tomorrow), then on to Greenland and Iceland (although she’ll be a strong front rather than a tropical storm by then!). She still looks like a Tropical Storm and has good circulation in the lower troposphere, with some circulation still in the upper troposphere. However, as you can see from this satellite image of the North Atlantic, there isn’t much convection left, but she will bring some wet and windy weather to Canada:

I heard from Steve B. on Bermuda yesterday evening, as Leslie was heading out: “Things are fine here. A touch breezy but unless your glass is really full, hardly a ripple to be seen. Good surf if you are silly enough to brave the barren reefs with their razor sharp edges.”

(Oh bother… Djokovic is winning 5-2 in the third set).

Hurricane Michael
He is officially at 34.4N, 47.6W heading NW at 12mph. Winds are 75mph (central pressure 989mb), so he’s barely a cat 1 hurricane now (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and I expect they will downgrade him to a Tropical Storm later today. (Oh shucks, Andy lost the third set). As expected, his outer bands are playing footsie with Leslie’s outer bands (as you can also see in that satellite image).

Atlantic Blobette
The NHC have given said this little kid has a 90% chance of developing into the next Tropical Depression in the next 48 hours. She’ll be Nadine if she makes it to Tropical Storm status. She’s currently moving WNW at 15-20mph and is centered somewhere around 16.5N, 40.5W.  She has some decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but she doesn’t have much in the way of convection (as you can also see in the satellite image). There is a bit of wind shear, but her main inhibitor is dry air to her left/west and Saharan dry air to her right/east. It looks like she’ll continue generally westward/WNW for now.

Back tomorrow. I must go and focus on this Murray match! Eeek. Come on Murray, pull up your socks!… you can’t lose with James Bond and Indiana Jones’ dad on your side!! J

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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