November 30: Final Day of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Dear Friends, 

Hurray hurray... let there be much rejoicing for here we are, at the end of yet another Atlantic Hurricane Season! :-) I've got my mason jar of wine and a couple of small blocks of cheese... all I need to find is the ice cream scoop. :-)

Although the final official tally was 13 named storms of which two were hurricanes (no major), in my opinion I think the count should have been 10 named storms, of which only one was a (non-major) hurricane. The last storm this season was definitely not a Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm but by an amazing coincidence the naming of this system did allow NOAA to reach their minimum forecast for the season (of 13 - 20 named storms). Hmm. 

It looks like the early season European predictions were lower, and therefore closer, than the US predictions turned out to be, although they were still a bit higher for the number of hurricanes. There is more than one culprit for this discrepancy between forecast and reality... I know a lot are blaming the 'unpredictable' dry air, but I think the forecasts still don't fully (accurately) account for the impact the ocean has or the Saharan Air Layer (i.e. dust, which has zero calories, so you can eat as much dust as you like ;-) (Little Britain)). I would be a happy bunny if everyone stopped putting numbers on the season when we clearly don't understand quite what's going on! 

Although we had a blissfully quiet season over here, the other ocean basins haven't had such a smooth ride. The Eastern/Central Pacific season, which also ended today, was forecast to have a quiet season but ended up with 20 named storms of which 9 were hurricanes. However, the two biggest storm stories this year (so far) took place in the Indian and West Pacific Oceans. In October the beautifully formed Cat 5 storm, Cyclone Phailin, in the Indian Ocean made landfall in eastern India. Over 500,000 people were evacuated and, amazingly, only 44 deaths were reported. The other big storm story was in the Western Pacific Ocean which (so far) has had 31 named storms, of which 13 are Typhoons (wind speed >74 mph) and 5 have been Super Typhoons (wind speed > 120 mph). Just about 3 weeks ago, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) hit the Philippines directly as a cat 5 storm (cat 5 range >156 mph) with winds estimated to be between  160 - 196 mph at landfall (wind speed has yet to be confirmed), resulting in over 5,600 deaths. Eugh! Very sad. Sigh. Hopefully that will be the worst of it for this year - in all ocean basins!  

As I wrap up, no season would be complete without my annual award breaking Oscar thank you speech. :-) I'd like to thank Doug M. at CMS/USF (www.marine.usf.edu) in Florida for helping with the listserv, to Chris H. in Georgia and Ben A., for help with the website. I'd also like to thank the NHC for their hard work and for giving me something to rant about. Keep up the good work folks. ;-) 

I also thank my family and friends for keeping me supplied with wine, cheese and other such essentials of life and for their continued futile attempts to keep me sane. ;-) I especially thank my husband, Ben Alpi, for being understanding of the evenings and weekends I've spent ignoring him as I work on my 'hobby' (and of course, right on cue, he just said (apparently with mock drama) "you're not done yet?!?" ;-)).

Last, but most definitely not least, I thank YOU! The best and most intelligent readers ever. :-) Thank you for reading and for sending me jokes, photos, on the ground reports, comments, and questions. Thanks for telling your friends about my fabulously hilarious, witty, informative, accurate, and entertaining writings. The blog website currently has 67, 526 hits... that's 23, 976 hits since last year, with only 53 new updates this year!! :-)

I think I have squirreled away all the acorns, so now it is time for me to hibernate . I'll continue to tweet, like any good twit (@Jyovianstorm) and I may be back for a quick word or two in the next six months (if you are lucky ;-)).  In the meantime, I wish you all a very safe and happy holiday and non-hurricane season filled with much joy and merriment and good TV. Have a wonderful and Happy New Year! ;-)  

Toodle Pip!
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ 
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Melissa: November 19, Update A

We'll start with the most important bit first shall we? Only 4 more days until the 50th Anniversary of Dr. Who! Yay for the Abundance of Science Fiction Geekiness! ;-) 

Even as I write, STS Melissa is weakening from not being a Subtropical Storm to really not being a Subtropical Storm. She is officially 'centered' at 33.6N, 52.4W heading NE at 17mph. Winds are 50mph, central pressure is estimated to be 988mb (suspiciously low for a subtropical storm with such weak winds!). There isn't really much convection anywhere near the center as you can see in the infrared satellite image:

The forecast track has shifted a bit to the east:

I think she's trying to get to Ireland and the British Isles just in time to celebrate the 50th Dr. Who anniversary weekend. Who wouldn't want to do that? As nothing much is going on, this will be my last update on Melissa. I have more important things to do like, er, eating ice cream and finishing my Dr. Who bumper edition colouring book... ;-)      

I'll be back for the season wrap-up (unless there's another 'non-storm' before then)... but in the meantime Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Hanukkah! 

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ 
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Melissa: November 18, Update A

Really? Subtropical Storm Melissa? Really?? Sigh. Sorry to break it to you all, but this is not a subtropical storm. Luckily it's late now, the season is almost over, and I've had a lovely glass of wine otherwise I'm sure I'd be ranting about this! ;-) 

She is supposedly at 30.3N, 54.7W, heading NW at 8mph. Winds are 60mph, central pressure 985mb. This is what she looks like in the infrared satellite image: 

So, why is Melissa not a subtropical storm? (Apart from the obvious lack of deep convection, which we know by the dearth of orange and red colours in the image above... it's just a light drizzle at the most!).

The biggest clue is in the circulation (or vorticity as this is supposed to be all sciency ;-)) and what that looks like at different levels of the troposphere - this gives us a glimpse into the structure of the storm. I'm sure you all remember that a tropical storm has a very well defined circular pattern of vorticity... (and just in case you happened to have forgotten that, there's an extremely funny and well-written refresher here: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/09/tropical-storm-gabrielle-hurricane.html). Well a subtropical storm would have that lovely circular pattern in the lower levels, and would be connected to a larger area of stronger vorticity (like a front) in the upper levels. Melissa looks like she's connected to a stream of stronger circulation and is not well defined at any level of the troposphere. Here are the latest circulation/vorticity maps for four levels of the troposphere. 

The lowest level, pretty darn tootin' close to the surface of the planet: 

A bit higher: 

The middle bit:

And the upper troposphere: 

None of these show that well defined circulation we'd expect to see with a subtropical or tropical storm! So this is more of an extratropical storm methinks.

She's heading NW for now, but is expected to turn north, then NE, and then turn left at the MacDonalds on Thursday:

I haven't had time to look at the track possibilities, but I'm advising all fish in the area to board up your fish holes and take a holiday... the South Atlantic is looking particularly nice at this time of year. ;-)

I have a travel/meetings day tomorrow, but I'll try and pop back on from some airport or another.  In the meantime I'll leave you with a very cheery thought... only 5 more days until the new Dr. Who 50th Anniversary Episode!!! :-) :-) 

Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ 
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo: October 22, Update A

Like any good Time Lord, I am traveling through space and time this week so I don't have much time (ha!) to write about storms. But it's ok because TS Lorenzo, who made an appearance yesterday, is hanging out in the Atlantic sipping his manly pina coladas and won't really be making landfall. :-)

Currently he is at 29.4N, 51.2W, heading E at 8mph. Officially winds are 50mph, central pressure is 1003mb. I think he's a bit stronger than that because the convection is pretty good and there is very strong circulation in the lower half of the troposphere:

I'd say he was more in the 60mph range actually. The forecast has him becoming a Tropical Depression by Thursday afternoon. He is moving into an area of very strong wind shear, which will most certainly knock his socks off (if the pina coladas don't ;-)).  

I actually have to work in this new time zone this week (I know, work, can you believe it?!?) so Lorenzo, although you are Swirling in a sea of stars, Twirling to the strum of guitars, No one tangos quite the way you do, But now my dancing days with you are through! (Pink Martini, And Then You're Gone). ;-)

Ok, must run. My TARDIS awaits!
Aloha,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob and Cyclone Phailin: October 12, Update A

Gosh, it looks like there are storms and blobs all over the place today! Let's see... in the eastern Pacific we have a blob and a Tropical Depression (number 15). In the western Pacific we have cat 2 Typhoon Wipha, which is whipping-upa winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96 -110mph) and is currently forecast to get to cat 5 status on Monday and then back to cat 1 before clipping Japan on Tuesday. Also in the western Pacific, crossing the South China Sea is Typhoon Nari with winds of 100mph (cat 2), due to make landfall in Vietnam on Tuesday. And then there are the Atlantic and Indian Oceans...

Luckily for us, it looks like dry air and wind shear did take their toll on the Atlantic Blob. You can see the clouds streaming off to the northeast in this infrared satellite image:

Circulation is still good in the lowest levels of the troposphere but the wind shear is super-duper strong and there is a big bunch of dry air to the north and west which looks like it's not subsiding in the immediate future. For now, no Tropical Storm Lorenzo.

In the Indian Ocean, Cyclone Phailin made landfall on Saturday evening in India (shown in this cool satellite image with it's neighbour, Typhoon Nari):

 
About 500,000 (!!!) people were evacuated, which is great because the last time a storm of this magnitude hit this area of India (in 1999), about 10,000 (!!!) people lost their lives! It is too soon to say how much damage has been caused (a handful of casualties reported so far), but the lowest central pressure recorded (that I know of) was 938mb, and the highest winds measured were 125mph (the sensor may have been damaged as winds got stronger).  It did weaken as it got closer to land of course, but not by a lot. It's now on land as a cat 3, with winds of 115mph (cat 3 range: 111-129mph).

I'll be watching the news tomorrow for updates but I won't be here unless Lorenzo shows up (I'll continue to tweet about the other storms as usual of course).

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob and the Indian Ocean: October 11, Update A

Well it's Friday night and you know what that means? Yes, that's right... it means there must be a storm out there. In fact there is more than one storm out there... one blobette in the Atlantic, a Typhoon that is crossing the Philippines today, another Tropical Storm in the western Pacific, and a Very BIG Cyclone in the Indian Ocean! 

Typhoon Nari is now over the Philippines as a cat 2 with 105mph winds - it was a cat 3 yesterday. That's tough enough, but the big tropical story is Cyclone Phailin that is due to make landfall in eastern India on Saturday evening (from the Navy website):

It's a category 5 storm with sustained winds estimated to be around 160mph! By definition, a category 5 storm means 'total devastation' which is why we don't have anything stronger. The storm surge is expected to be 15-17 ft over the low-lying areas of this part of India (Odisha and Northern Andra Pradesh coast). Although the Cyclone is a handsome looking storm from above, it's not looking pretty for parts of eastern India.

Compared to that our Atlantic Blob looks like a will-o'-the-wisp:

But it's not. Although the NHC still have this one classified as an area of investigation, I think he is already a Tropical Storm. The circulation is very very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and you can see the strong convection quite clearly in the infrared satellite image above. I would have called this one Lorenzo already (yes, that really is the next name ... isn't it great? :-)). There is some strong wind shear in his immediate future (actually you can already see this with the clouds streaming off to the east), but I'm not sure if that alone will be enough to stop him. I will look at track options tomorrow - assuming he survives. We'll see what the NHC decide tomorrow. We'll see what Lorenzo decides tomorrow!

In the meantime I shall hope for the best for those in the path of storms today and tomorrow.

Ciao,
J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Former TS Karen: October 6, Update A

It looks like TS Karen fell apart during the night, before making it to land. The wind shear and a front moving through the area nixed any ideas of landfall. The front, with bits of Karen, is now moving east and looks like it's bringing a bit-o-rain with it, as experienced in LA, MS and AL, and now in FL:

And that's my last update on this storm. I'll be back for the next  blob.   

Ciao for now,
J.   

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Karen: October 5, Update A

Not too much time to dilly dally today because it's Wineday! :-)

Tropical Storm Karen  has made the slight turn to the north, although she continues to push the western edge of the forecast cone and the NHC have shifted her track to the west. They currently forecast landfall late tonight/early tomorrow. If I were to guess, I'd say the Lacassine National Wildlife Refuge part of Louisiana (or possible as far east as Morgan City) is where she'll head - although this is a little west of the NHC forecast cone. Although they are expecting a turn to the NE today, I think there's a good possibility that it will occur once she's on land. She is currently at 27.9N, 91.7W, heading N at 7mph:

 She is barely a TS with winds of 40mph (central pressure: 1008mb), (TS range: 39-73mph). Even this seems too high! She is passing a number of oil and gas platforms in the western/central Gulf, and luckily for us, they have wind sensors on them! :-) (see, the wonders of an ocean observing system...).  Her center is passing very close to a Shell platform (27.8N, 92W), which is reporting winds of 14mph! A bit removed from the center, I see an Apache Corp platform which is reporting winds of 24 mph. Nothing is really showing anywhere near 40mph. Also, there is no circulation in the middle troposphere now, and the circulation in the lowest levels is diminishing too. 

There is very little convection left:

As she moves closer, there may be a toot of rain along the northern Gulf coast - LA to FL panhandle, but even that might not be as much as our normal summer thunderstorms.

Just keep an eye on the water levels. I see from Tides Online that it is almost 2ft above normal along parts of the LA coast.

And for the Karens out there...I thought of a Halloween costume idea: a beheaded Tropical Storm. :-) Send me photos if you do this! (ala Sharknado...)

And I think that's it for now.  I don't know about you but for me winedays are usually quite busy, what with having to drink wine, eat some cheese, have some more wine etc. I may not have time for another update later so stay safe out there and I'll be back tomorrow (once I've recovered ;-)).

Toodles!
J.

p.s. Happy Birthday to my hubby! :-)

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Karen: October 4, Update B

"The Queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small."  (Lewis Carroll) Off with her head! :-)

The NHC write that "KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR". I know we are approaching Halloween, but recovery from decapitation seems unlikely and at this rate Tropical Storm Karen might just fizzle out in the Gulf!

She has weakened even further and now has winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb.  As I suspected yesterday, she did become stationary for a portion of the day today but is now on the move again, heading NNW at 7mph, and is currently at 26.4N, 90.5W. Although that's her central location, her convection is over 100 miles to the east (and continues to be pushed to the east) as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

There is pretty good circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere (you can just about see the faint center on this satellite image), but the circulation in the middle troposphere (her head) is marked by the convection.

The track forecast still takes her to the northern Gulf coast:

and the cone still covers pretty much the same areas of land as it did before. At the moment I think she is moving along the western side of this cone but we should see a curve to the north and then northeast - probably tomorrow. That's the uncertain part of this - where and when will she turn. She may still skirt a bunch of that coastline before moving inland... assuming she is still around by then!

Mike A., enjoy the hurricane party in NOLA! :-) Here I have far more important things to do... like figuring out what flavour to replenish my dwindling ice cream stock with! ;-)
More tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Karen and Jerry the Blob: October 4, Udpate A

Time for a quick update...

Jerry the Blob
He's pretty much winding down. a bit-o-circulation left in the lowest level of the troposphere, but it's diminishing. This is my last entry on Jerry.

Tropical Storm Karen
The NHC have downgraded her, and quite appropriately too! I approve! :-) Officially winds are 50mph, which makes her a weak-to-mid-intensity Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1003mb.

Her circulation in the middle of the troposphere has started to weaken, although there is still some. That lovely dry air and wind shear and shallow warm water are still inhibiting her development. The wind shear is so strong that you can clearly see the center of circulation:

 

She is around 25.9N, 90.1W and looks like she's heading N-NNWish (the last NHC update had her moving at 9mph, so she has slowed down a bit since yesterday). The forecast track is:

Landfall has been shifted back again to the early hours of Sunday morning. But the bulk of the convection is on the east, so keep that in mind. Really too soon to pin-point exact landfall (as you can tell from the large cone), but if she continues to diminish, we'll be more-or-less ok. Just keep an eye on your local water levels if you live on the coast... from Tides Online, water levels along the coast are around 0.5-1 ft above normal in FL and AL and somewhere in the 1-2ft above normal range in MS and LA.

That's it for now. It's a lovely day here in St. Petersburg, Florida. The sky has patches of blue, and the clouds are keeping the temperatures a fraction cooler... or maybe that's the air conditioning... ;-)

More later!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Jerry the Blob and Tropical Storm Karen: October 3, Update B

Oh no! I made the mistake of reading a news piece about Tropical Storm Karen and am now sufficiently brainwashed and panicked that I have started to evacuate my freezer in preparation... (this ice cream is yummy by the way).

Jerry the Blob
I was about to write Jerry off as a post-tropical storm blob (sorry Jerry, I know you work out ;-))... but I just saw the infrared satellite images and it looks like he's having a last hurrah. The circulation is good in the very lowest levels of the troposphere, nothing in the middle. But the convection has increased in the last few hours. The NHC have issued their last advisory on this storm, but I'm going to wait until he's really a blob - i.e. less circulation or less convection.  

Tropical Storm Karen
She's currently centered at 23.8N, 88.9W heading NNW at 12mph. Officially winds are now 65mph, central pressure is 999mb. Hmm... not sure the winds are quite that strong, but more on that later.

Intensity:
She left the Yucatan Peninsula area this morning and as she moved away from that warm water in the Caribbean, she promptly fell apart. Here are a couple of satellite images from about 3 hours ago:

Doesn't look quite as composed as in the image I showed this morning, does she? This is because of wind shear, dry air, and because she's no longer over that very deep warm water in the Caribbean. The convection is slowly increasing- that little red splodge in the middle is getting a bit bigger as you can see in the latest infrared image:

but we're at a much weaker point than we were this time yesterday (as far as convection goes). Sea surface temperatures are around 29-30 degrees C, so definitely warm enough to sustain her and the upper 50-100m of the water are 26.5 deg C. This is enough to allow her to grow, but not as much as she would have if the warmer water had been deeper.

There is still dry air to her west and north:

And there is still some wind shear, which is why the convection is almost all east and north of the center of the circulation. The wind shear will continue, although it looks like it might get a tad weaker for tomorrow - this would allow her to intensify a bit more.

The circulation is still very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, but there is no signal at all in the upper troposphere, so she's not near hurricane strength yet. Winds are 65mph, which makes her a strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). This speed is from a hurricane hunter plane that flew in earlier today. I am usually a big big fan of the hurricane hunter planes because I'm all about the actual observed data, but I'm not sure about this wind speed. They didn't find a center yesterday, when clearly she had one, and now the speed seems a little too high given the circulation and convection.

I do wish we had a proper ocean observing system! I'd like a network of robust buoys across the Gulf that we could tap into to see what the wind speeds on the 'ground' actually were. Wouldn't that be awesome?! :-) As it is, the nearest buoy is about 120 miles north of the center (in the forecast path) and is showing winds of 22mph. And looking at satellite winds, it looks like the winds speed is somewhere around 50-60mph, which would mean she's a mid-strength storm.

Track:
The NHC's forecast has shifted a little to the west compared to yesterday/earlier today and landfall has moved forward to Saturday afternoon instead of later that night:

It's a bit tricky to assess landfall because she is skirting a high pressure and it is fluctuating - so she could move a little more to the west, or it is quite likely that she could shift back to the east and towards Florida. I'm not the only one having difficulty in pinpointing the track - the NHC and models are also having a difficult time, which is why that cone at landfall stretches from Florida to Louisiana!

The latest pressure field I've seen is showing that there's a possibility that she'll slow down from her 12mph movement (she may even become stationary) tomorrow. If she does, that will complicate things some more ( oh joy! we love complications in forecasting - it's too easy otherwise. ;-)). I'm going to have to rely on the NHC for the track for now as I don't see anything particularly wrong with it at the moment. But keep in mind that it's not just the center of the cone that we should watch and also keep in mind that the track may shift. I wouldn't even rule out the possibility that she'll skirt the northern Gulf coast yet! I'd say everyone from eastern Texas to central Florida should be watching Karen for now.

Water levels:
Water levels along the Florida coast are around 0.5ft above normal, and along Mississippi they are around 1.5ft above normal. The highest I've seen is in Louisiana - Shell Beach just showed 2ft above normal. You can find out water levels from Tides Online - if you can't recall how to do this, there's a refresher in this entry: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/06/tropical-storm-andrea-june-5-update-a.html.

I'll be back tomorrow - I'll try to do two updates again (lucky you! ;-)). For now, time to go and evacuate a bit more from the freezer... ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Karen: October 3, Update A

A special quick update on TS Karen only (Jerry can wait!). The NHC upgraded the Caribbean Blobette directly from 'an area of interest' to a Tropical Storm with 60mph winds, which makes her a mid-strength Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). A bit behind on the magic ball there... they really should have named her yesterday!

The circulation is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, but there is nothing in the upper levels which is good - this means she's definitely not a hurricane. She did clip the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula last night but will shortly move completely away an into the gulf. You can see that she's not completely 'circular' because of this interaction with land in the satellite images (visible on top, infrared below):

The strongest convection is over the area of warmest water... but not only at the surface! It is warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper ~150m, which is really deep. As she moves away from this part of the northern Caribbean, the warm water depth will decrease, so we should see a reduction in the convection. The other two factors she will bump into in the Gulf is the dry air to her north and west, and a bit stronger wind shear.

As for track, the current forecast has her going into Alabama late on Saturday night:

Looking at the pressure fields I have access to, it looks like she may curve to the east before that point which means the Florida panhandle or the north-central west coast of Florida. But keep in mind that the pressure fields are subject to change and I don't have as good information on this as the NHC. They have been pretty good on the track one day out, and fairly good two days out, so even if she doesn't make a direct line for Alabama, you guys may get a few drops of rain (of course, if the dry air and wind shear really kicks in, you may have a perfectly sunny day).

Must run, but more later,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Jerrry and the Caribbean Blobette: October 2, Update A

101 reasons why Monarchs are useful. Number 25: "Australia had a government shut down once. In the end, the Queen fired everyone in parliament." They haven't had a shutdown since. (From the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/10/01/australia-had-a-government-shutdown-once-it-ended-with-the-queen-firing-everyone-in-parliament/). ;-) (thanks to Trent F. for pointing that article out).

Tropical Depression Jerry
Although he still has circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, he hasn't been able to get a handle on the convection at all, poor fellow. The NHC just downgraded him to a Tropical Depression. Winds are now officially around 35mph, central pressure is 1010mb. He's moving to the NE at 7mph - along that far more reasonable track. They have him as a depression all the way through to Sunday at least, but it looks like there is wind shear and the circulation is slowly  dwindling, so I'm not sure he'll hold out that long. He is currently at around 29.7N, 42W (and has therefore discovered the meaning of life, the universe and everything... no wonder he's now a Depression! ;-)).

Caribbean Blobette
Onto the newest kid on the block. Although the NHC have said there is no closed circulation and they had a plane fly into the system, I think they are a bit mistaken. She's a good looking little storm now and has some decent circulation throughout the lower troposphere. I would have named her TS Karen by now. She's got more structure and convection than Jerry:

At a guess, I'd say she had a center somewhere around 20.5N, 85.2W. She is moving NW and towards the Gulf.

Now, as it says on the cover of Hitchhikers Guide To The Galaxy: Don't Panic!

She's interacting with land - both the Yucatan and Cuba and although she has a lot of convection, she is moving over the warmest part of the Caribbean, where sea surface temperatures are 29-31 deg C!! and the upper ~150m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C!!! How could she not be generating thundery rainstorms? The wind from the flapping wings of a seagull flying over that would probably create a small storm! So, that explains the convection. When she gets into the Gulf, although the surface waters are still around 29 deg C, only the upper 50-75m of the water column is warmer than 26.5 deg C.

Meanwhile in the atmosphere it looks like she'll run into some drier air in the Gulf:

And wind shear will get a little stronger.

To sum up, I think she's already a Tropical Storm, but she's not a very strong one (yet anyway) and I'm not yet sure that she will be very strong once she's in the Gulf.

As for track, I still think there's a possibility that she'll head a little more to the west - maybe enough to go over the Yucatan peninsula (which may weaken her further). It's a little tricky to do a forecast on where she'll go in the Gulf until she gets into the Gulf and we see what shape she's in. All those in the Gulf (including us in Florida) should keep an eye on her (just one eye for now will suffice ;-)).

Maybe we'll wake up to Tropical Storm Karen!
More tomorrow. Time for a nice nap now. :-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Jerry and the Caribbean Blobette: October 1, Update A

In case you missed it: The government shut down. That’s definitely not the bee’s knees! I’d call that a sockdollager that discombobulated a lot of people today. Things are a bit catawumpus but it’s not a foofaraw, alas. I’ve heard a lot of people say it is phonus balonus and I’m sure some people may already be slightly spifflicated. I hope for a rapid conclusion to this hogwash and I say to my friends who have been furloughed: May The Force Be With You!! (and have fun deciphering that logolepsical smorgasbord, including the neologisms... Shakespeare would be pleased). ;-)

Tropical Storm Jerry
Apparently the government wasn't the only thing that shut down today! Jerry also decided to take a hiatus and remained in the same place, at 28.1N, 43.5W, all day. He didn't go west (where the skies are blue (PSB)) as forecast yesterday. I was a little dubious about that forecast because although the high pressure was building up to the north and northwest, it didn't really go away from his south or east so he was effectively blocked in from all sides today. Although I don't have the same resolution of information, I think the forecast track they have for him today looks more reasonable:

 

His winds did officially increase to 50mph last night, but are back at around 45mph now. Central pressure is 1007mb. This seems like a good estimate to me. It looks like he's tuckered himself out because he didn't move west and away from the dry air, and because he remained over the same area of water all day:

There is very little strong convection at the moment even though there is pretty decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. If he moves away from the dry air and the water is still warm, he may get stronger.

Caribbean Blobette
The NHC have increased this blobette's chances of development to 30% in the next 2 days, and 50% in the next 5 days. Here's a snapshot of her convective activity that I grabbed around 4pm today:

And this is what she looks like now, about 6 hours later:

Yeah, you can play spot the difference. There really hasn't been much change in her convection during the day today. Her vorticity (circulation), although a bit stronger now, is a little higgledy piggledy as well. The lowest tropospheric level is now more like a front than a tropical storm and it stretches from Central America to Cuba; and the mid-tropospheric level circulation is to the east of the lower levels, closer to Jamaica.

The forecast for now continues to move her to the northwest and into the Gulf. I think she may track a little more westward than currently forecast. 

Now it's high time for a spot of noodle juice and the exciting end of Inferno (Mr. Brown's version, not Mr. Alighieri's).

Laters!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Jerry and the Caribbean Blobette: September 30, Update A

The big question in the US this evening is whether or not there will be a government tomorrow. According to the Dept. of Commerce Agency Contingency Plan (you can find all the plans here by the way: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/contingency-plans), the weather part (including Tropical Storms) will carry on (and on and on). On the other hand I have heard from a reliable source inside the U.S. Geological Survey (let’s call him Bryan for the sake of anonymity) that they will be "turning off all volcanoes and canceling earthquakes", and rest assured, the National Parks Service will, indeed, be shutting down Old Faithful and other hot geysers and hot springs. No need to worry about those. :-)

Tropical Storm Jerry

Tropical Depression #11 turned into Tropical Storm Jerry today (we're still doing better than the Western Pacific, where Tropical Depression #22 (!!!) turned into Tropical Storm Fitow today). I agree with this upgrade because the circulation that was absent from the middle levels of the troposphere yesterday improved today. He is at 27.3N, 44.9W, still heading east at 7mph. He is pretty weak with winds of 40mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1008mb. He's been heading a little more east than yesterday's track showed:

 

 

But the NHC think he'll make that turn back to the west any minute now. I'm not 100% sure about this yet, but I do see it as a possible scenario because the high pressure will develop to his north and northwest.  

 

The convection also continued to persist during the day but it has been slowly decreasing as we see if we compare an infrared satellite image from mid-afternoon:

with this one three hours later:

The major convection is still to the northeast of the center, so there is still some wind shear but not as much as yesterday. Water temperatures are warm enough for the storm to develop, with surface temperatures around 27-28 deg C, and the upper 50-75m warmer than 26.5 deg C. However there is a lot of dry air to the southeast of Jerry, which is squelching the convection:

If he does take that forecast track to the west, he'll be moving away from the dry air and I think he will intensify. His circulation is continuing to improve throughout the troposphere so there's a chance he may even reach hurricane strength, although currently the NHC don't forecast his wind speed exceeding 45mph at any point in the next 5 days.

Caribbean Blobette
This little thing now has a 20% chance of developing into something in the next 2 days. There's a bit of circulation, but she's mostly just convection at the moment. She is over some very warm waters, so definitely worth keeping an eye on!

That's all for today. Now I think...

How cool is that?!? :-) I found napkins with one of my catch-phrases on it! They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery! ;-)

Until tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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